Monday, January 30, 2006

Electoral reform should be Tory priority

My attention is drawn to the latest set of predictions by the excellent Electoral Calculus website which calculates election results on the basis of current opinion polls, while allowing for the vagaries of our electoral system.

It shows that if an election was held tomorrow, Labour could expect a majority of 64 - a net loss of just two seats.

This very healthy majority would come in spite of the fact that Labour currently averages 38pc in the opinion polls to the Tories' 37pc.

The site also shows that the Liberal Democrats would lose no fewer than 51 seats if an election were held now, plummeting from their current representation of 62 to the pre-SDP level of 11.

There are two conclusions to be drawn from all this. Firstly, that those of us who argued that the Lib Dems might in time come to regret getting rid of Charles Kennedy might well have had a point.

Secondly, that David Cameron will find it extremely hard to win an election under the current, constituency-based system, which rewards Labour for the fact that its support is more concentrated and penalises his party for the fact that its support is more thinly-spread.

The Electoral Calculus figures show yet again that the Tories will have to be approximately 7-8pc ahead of Labour in the popular vote to win an overall majority.

In his own interests, as well as in the interests of democracy, Cameron should be arguing for the replacement of this rotten system with one that more adequately reflects the parties' overall share of the vote.

Parliament Squared

As an ex-lobby man, this story from the Axe Grinder column in this week's Press Gazette brought a smile to my face...

"Fleet Street veteran Rob Gibson, has learnt the hard way about the dangers of email.

The former Daily Express political editor and dedicated fund-raiser for journalists' charity the NPF now runs the highly regarded Gallery News at the House of Commons. Gibson sends out stories daily to a host of outlets, including MPs at Westminster.

Unfortunately, Gibson sent out one email in error last week that was a little too "exclusive".

To the great man's consternation, it contained the minutes of the latest meeting of his Masonic lodge. Now there's open government for you."


The extent of masonry within the lobby - and the Palace of Westminster as a whole - was a constant source of mischievous speculation during my time there.

Correspondents were frequently baffled to find the chairs in the Lobby Room rearranged with one facing the wrong way - a seating arrangement consistent with the masonic initiation ritual in which the candidate sits blindfolded with his back to the room.

On one memorable occasion, a notorious wind-up merchant in the regional lobby put out a spoof tannoy for the Secretary of the Press Gallery Freemasons' Lodge - such a body does exist.

It was answered by a very well-known Sunday newspaper political editor, who maintained he was simply curious as to who was on the other end of the line.....

Friday, January 27, 2006

'At least no-one's shot a dog yet'

This is the thought with which Liberal Democrats are apparently consoling themselves after surely the most shattering week in their 17-year history, according to today's Guardian.

Full marks to pol corr Julian Glover for finding someone prepared to say this - I'm assuming he didn't make the quote up himself although some less scrupulous hacks doutbless would have done ;-)

The Guardian also scores with the best piece I have read so far on the Hughes affair, from Philip Hensher and Andy Beckett in G2.

I think I would take the view that, although it shouldn't have been necessary to ask the question, because he systematically misled the public over a number of years it sadly became necessary.

As to the leadership election....I do think Hughes' campaign is probably now holed below the waterline, which at least has the benefit of clarifying the choice facing Lib Dem members.

What I hope will now happen is that those Hughes supporters who want to see energetic leadership coupled with radical policies will realise that Chris Huhne stands a far better chance of defeating Ming Campbell.

Jan 30 update. Not surprisingly, Huhne has latched on to this idea and is now seeking to convince people that it's a two-horse race.

As ever with the Lib Dems, it could all come down to tactical voting.....