Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Ten ways in which Blair could go before May 31, 2007

So it is apparently official. Tony Blair's closest allies confirm he will be gone in less than a year. George Pascoe Watson in the Sun goes further and names May 31, 2007 as the actual resignation date, possibly by the clever journalistic device of working eight weeks back from the end of the 2007 Parliamentary session. For Junior Defence Minister and fellow blogger Tom Watson it is not soon enough, and he quits.

Having long taken the view that Blair would try to hang around for his 10th anniversary, I concluded yesterday that it was no longer possible. Here's ten factors and forces which could intervene in his plans, ranging from a change of heart by the man himself to Harold Macmillan's fabled "events, dear boy, events...."

1. Himself. Blair might just decide he's had enough of all this, and announce a surprise departure. For as long as the process remained in Blair's hands, I thought this was quite a likely option, but the announcement of a "timetable" has made it less likely, as it would now look like he was succumbing to pressure. Chances: 2/10.

2. Gordon Brown. The Chancellor might finally cotton-on to the fact that Blair is determined to stitch him up, and launch a pre-emptive strike. It would be an incredible gamble and might bring the curse of the regicide down on his head, but that might be better than hanging around for Reid/Johnson/Miliband to emerge as serious alternatives. Chances: 4/10.

3. John Prescott. The Deputy Leader might once have been a plausible conveyor of the silver bullet, but his credibility is shot. He could however still bring down Blair in another way - by falling on his own sword. Since Blair has already said he is going, there would then be pressure for the leadership and deputy leadership to be resolved at the same time. Chances: 6/10.

4. The Cabinet. Despite the decline of "Cabinet Government," it was the Cabinet that did for Thatcher in the end and I now think this is the likeliest denouement for Blair. They know it will almost certainly put Brown in No 10, and that will mean the end of a good few Cabinet careers. But better that than another year of drift and division. Chances: 7/10.

5. The PLP. Blair's support within the PLP is visibly waning and unless the political situation improves for Labour - hard to see while Blair remains in place - it is entirely plausible that he could fall victim to the kind of internal MPs revolt that did for both Iain Duncan Smith and Charles Kennedy. If so, expect the Scots and the Welsh to be to the fore. Chances: 6/10.

6. The House of Commons. Alternatively, Blair's dwindling support in the PLP may lead to his defeat on a major piece of Government legislation and a vote of no confidence. This would however require David Cameron's acquiescance, and it is in Cameron's interests to keep Blair in power as long as possible. Chances: 3/10.

7. Conference. There is still a theoretical possbility that someone could bring forward a motion to the party conference, or demand the connvening of a special conference, that could in turn trigger a leadership election. It's a remote possibility, but I include it here as it is the only formal procesure that actually exists. Chances 1/10.

8. The public. Elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Asesembly and English local authorities take place next May. Blair will be gone soon after that anyway so the results won't have a direct impact on the date. But what about by-elections? There are bound to be some, and they could easily turn into referendums on whether Blair should stay or go. Chances: 5/10.

9. The police. The most intriguing possibility, and the one which could yet bring the Blair years to the most ignominious end imaginable. Inspector John Yates is currently investigating the award of peerages in return for donations to Labour funds or towards setting up City Academies. If Blair has his collar felt, he is toast. Chances: 4/10.

10. "Events." These are by their very nature always beyond a politician's control, but invariably have greater impact when that politician is already weakened. In the early days, Blair's popularity enabled him to brush such setbacks aside. Not now. Some new scandal affecting a Labour minister, or some new catastrophe in Iraq could easily tip him over the edge. Chances: 7/10.

Chances of none of these things happening, and Blair surviving until next summer: 0/10.

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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

The Wages of Spin

Two, or possibly even three letters have been sent to Tony Blair by Labour MPs demanding that he stand down immediately. The leaked memo published in today's Daily Mirror shows why they are right.

When I first saw this, I have to say my first reaction was that it was a spoof. Someone on another blog has likened it to an Armando Iannucci sketch and I think that's about right.

But Kevin Maguire, loyal Brownite though he may be, is not the kind of reporter who gets spoofed. Whether or not Blair himself ever saw the memo, I do believe it is genuine.

What it shows, above all, is that whatever tenuous grip on reality might once have existed within the Blair Bunker has now been completely and irretrievably lost.

The memo states that Mr Blair "needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."

It's that phrase "needs to go with the crowds wanting more" that does it for me. Has whoever wrote that picked up a newspaper lately, or read the opinion polls, or spoken to ordinary voters, or Labour Party members for that matter?

If they had, they would know that the country, and the party too, is fed-up to the back teeth of Blair, has been for some time, and just wants him to get on his bike.

The last conceivable date at which Blair could have "gone with the crowds wanting more" would have been immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the Spring of 2003, before it became clear what an evil morass we had involved ourselves in, or how far the public had been deceived into backing the war in the first place.

This evident loss of touch with reality is all of a one with that strange "Anthony" mug with which Mr Blair appeared at his recent monthly press conference.

"You're a man who's in charge, others follow your lead. Your refined inner voice drives your thoughts and deeds. You possess great depth and have a passionate mind. Others think you're influential, ethical and kind," it read.

A few years back, the Downing Street spokesman Tom Kelly sought to rubbish his namesake Dr David Kelly by describing him as a "Walter Mitty Charachter," ignoring, for instance, the pivotal role which Dr Kelly played in verifying the disarmament process in Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Well, who is Walter Mitty now, Tom?

Of course, Tony Blair has always had a Messiah complex. I don't mean he thinks he is Jesus Christ, but he does think that he is in some way the chosen one, a modern-day Moses perhaps, the only one capable of leading his people from the wilderness to the promised land, perhaps even the only one capable of keeping them there.

What is outlined in the memo is not so much a resignation, as an ascension into heaven, or at least into the bright, sunlit uplands of elder statesmanship.

As Maguire states: "Privately a highly detailed battle plan is in place that aims to catapult Mr Blair out of office and into elder statesmanship with as many bells and whistles as possible. The key aides masterminding the most drawn-out exit in British political history have thought of everything - even a celestial choir, courtesy of Songs of Praise.

"While Mr Blair scolds us for "obsessing" over his exit date, it is clear he is a lot more obsessed."


But to those of us who have spent the better parts of our careers following the fortunes of Tony Blair and New Labour, none of this should come as a great surprise.

Mr Blair was spun into office in the first place, and to be spun out of office courtesy of a carefully co-ordinated series of photo-ops and interviews would doubtless be an appropriate end for the Great Charlatan.

Environment Secretary David Miliband has said today that he reckons it will happen in 12 months time, but whether or not that constitutes confirmation of the wretched "timetable" which Mr Blair was only days ago seeking to deny us, he won't last that long.

All political careers end in failure - but Blair's is now in danger of ending in farce.

Blair-must-go watch update:

  • Calling for Blair to go now/this year

    Chris Bryant, Sion Smon and 15 other Labour MPs
    Andrew Smith
    Frank Dobson
    Michael Meacher
    Ashok Kumar
    Glenda Jackson
    The Guardian
    The Daily Telegraph
    The Economist
    The New Statesman
    Tribune
    Polly Toynbee
    Matthew Parris
    Jonathan Freedland
    Stephen Pollard
    Paul Linford
    Bloggerheads
    Skipper
    BBC Newsnight poll
    Times Populus poll

  • Demanding a timetable for leadership handover

    Wayne David, Don Touhig and other Welsh MPs
    Neal Lawson/Compass
    Nick Raynsford
    Martin Salter
    Howard Stoate

    Footnote: Mike White of the Guardian, who was widely believed to have counselled his newspaper against calling for Blair to go this year, is now calling for "a dignified exit" soon.

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  • Blogging: The Times gets it

    Until now, most of the mainstream media's attempts at jumping on the blogging bandwagon have missed the point somewhat.

    By far the biggest and most ambitious such attempt was the launch of the Guardian's much-vaunted and much-hyped Comment is Free uber-blog earlier this year.

    I don't want to diss it too much. It does provide a valuable aggregation of mainly very good commentary, and it does give people a chance to interact with Guardian writers in a way they didn't previously have.

    But a blog it is not. For a start, it doesn't link out to other blogs, except those written by its own guest writers. Even when other bloggers post comments on there, they can't even use their own URLs, for instance.

    A similar fanfare accompanied the entry of Trevor Kavanagh into the blogosphere. Unfortunately, he didn't update his blog for weeks and the last entry is currently dated 14th August.

    To me, the Kavanagh episode was proof that great journalists don't necessarily make great bloggers any more than great bloggers necessarily make great journalists. Doyen of the Lobby he may be, but hardly "the blog the politicians fear."

    The Daily Mail's Ben Brogan comes closer. He at least takes the trouble to update his blog most days, even though it too doesn't link out to other sites.

    Much the same could be said of Sky's Adam Boulton and the BBC's Nick Robinson, although the latter blog does have the merit of amplifying Robinson's on-screen commentaries.

    What none of them had done though was to provide a sort of "umbrella" service featuring both MSM commentary and the best of the blogosphere, a daily version of Tim Worstall's peerless "Britblog" round-up.

    Thankfully, the new Comment Central blog from Times Comment Editor Danny Finkelstein (pictured) does exactly that, promising a return to the original spirit of weblogging - "logging the web, not my life."

    This to my mind is the best national newspaper blogging initiative so far. Rather than an attempt to corral the political blogosphere under one newspaper brand like CiF, it is a genuine attempt to celebrate its diversity.

    I wish him luck.

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    Monday, September 04, 2006

    Where have I been?


    As I've just come back from a trip abroad I thought I would post a link to THIS SITE. It enables you to create a map of all the countries you have visited and I quite like it.

    As you can see, I am not really that well-travelled, although I have done most of Western Europe as well as New Zealand, which as everyone who has ever been there knows is the most beautiful country in the world.

    I've not really been to Alaska, by the way, or Hawaii. Or Sicily or Sardinia for that matter (although I have been to Corsica and that was a really fab place.) The map just shows it that way.

    I notice that Blair failed to resign while I was away, which was mildly disappointing, but will at least give me the opportunity to revisit the Labour leadership issue tomorrow.

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