Friday, September 08, 2006

So who the f*** said it?

As the Blairites start to take their revenge on Gordon Brown for the week's shenangigans, Guido has asked his legions of readers for their help in identifying the Cabinet minister who told Nick Robinson that Brown "would be a fucking dreadful Prime Minister and I will do all in my power to stop him."

Well, I'm happy to lend a hand as it's a question that's been buzzing round in my mind too.

Going through the Cabinet list one-by-one, the following can be ruled out because they are bascially friends or supporters of Gordon: Prescott, Straw, Beckett, Darling, Hain, Alexander, Browne, Hewitt and Timms.

Meanwhile the following can be ruled out because they are too nice to use words like fuck - at least in public: Kelly, Miliband, Armstrong, Jowell, Amos, Benn and Smith.

Which to my mind leaves five prime suspects in the frame: Reid, Johnson, Falconer, Blears and Hutton.

Taking these in turn, Reid would seem to be the hot favourite, both on account of his well-documented views on Gordon and occasionally belligerent nature. But there's one problem - he was out of the country yesterday, and this exchange with Robinson has the air of something uttered to his face rather than over the phone.

What about Johnson, then? Well, it's the kind of thing he might have said, but he has been playing his cards very close to his chest with regard to the leadership, and I find it unlikely he would have used words to Robinson which would effectively confirm his candidature.

Blears? I'll say this much - she's the only Cabinet woman you can imagine making such a remark, and she's no fan of the Chancellor either. But it still sounds like a blokey comment to me, and Blears, as party chairman, will be aware of the need for her to remain publicly above the fray.

What about Falconer? Now I think we're possibly getting warmer. Some would say he's too urbane to use the f-word, but in my experience posh lawyers are just as foul-mouthed as their more humble counterparts. And with his Cabinet career at an end if Brown takes over, he certainly has the motive.

Finally, Hutton. He's often thought of as Mr Geniality but he sounded pretty tetchy to me on the Today Programme yesterday, especially when asked about whether he endorsed Gordon for leader. Maybe he's picked up some bad habits from his former flatmate Alan Milburn who swears like a trouper. Particularly about Gordon.

So there it is. But there's a serious point here too, in that if this the kind of thing the Blairites are saying about Gordon, then it is clear he is now facing a concerted attempt to block him, with all the consequential risks of a lasting split in the party if that effort succeeds.

You can be sure of one other thing, too. That Gordon's people will also be doing their damnedest to find out who said it.

****

To round off a hectic week's blogging, here's a couple of other things that caught my eye today.

First, Times Political Editor Philip Webster's front page story on the crisis, which contains the intriguing paragraph: "But Mr Brown appeared to be the unassailable favourite to succeed Mr Blair as one minister after another offered support to the Chancellor."

As any fule kno, at least at Westminster, the word "unassailable" has long been a political code-word for someone who is about to be sacked - after Margaret Thatcher used it about her soon-to-be-departing Chancellor Nigel Lawson in 1989.

Was this just Webster's little joke? Or was it possibly something more sinister, a warning to Brown delivered via one of the Blair camp's most trusted scribes that he is riding for an almighty fall?

Finally, the Blair fightback continues with the establishment of a new website, Keeping the Faith, dedicated to defending the PM against the "minority" of MPs who are trying to dethrone him.

Among those who have signed the online petition are Adrian McMenamin, the combative former Labour press officer whose job used to involve infiltrating the opposition parties' conferences and instantly rebutting any attack on New Labour, and Darren Murphy, the former Milburn SPAD who went on to become Mr Blair's political secretary.

But for a brilliant deconstruction of the site and the people behind it, I hereby direct you to this piece on Bloggerheads.

Tim "Manic" Ireland's twisted humour is quite frequently beyond me. But he has played an absolute blinder on this one.

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Thursday, September 07, 2006

It's not enough

Tony Blair has confirmed what we already knew and said he will stand down within the next year. Gordon Brown has said the timing is his decision and warned there can be no more private agreements or pacts.

But is it enough? Will Tony Blair now get his 10 years after all? And will Gordon Brown really just sit back and wait for him to go, in the certain knowledge that each day that goes by gives his enemies more chance of finding an alternative?

No, I don't think so. The heart of the issue - the political dynamic which is really driving this crisis and which has caused it come to a head now - remains unresolved.

That is quite simply the desire among Labour MPs for a new leader to be in place by the time of the local and devolved elections in May so they can begin the fightback against David Cameron's resurgent Tories.

On my blog earlier, I set out an way in which that could happen, with a new party leader taking over in March, but Blair remaining PM until May - the "Aznar Option" as it has been termed.

This to me is the only way in which both sides can salvage something from this, but there is no indication that it is even on the agenda. Indeed Mr Brown, in his statement, seemed to go out of his way to stress there can be no more deals.

The only Blairite minister who has really been seeking to pour oil on the party's troubled waters has been David Miliband, who I must say has gone hugely up in my estimation today.

In his interview with the New Statesman, he not only ruled himself out of contention for the leadership - a sensible move at his age - but made clear that he wanted a stable transition to Mr Brown - and no-one else.

By contrast, some of the Blairites seem determined to try to goad Mr Brown beyond endurance, with John Hutton the new flavour-of-the-month among the ranks of the "Anyone But Gordon" faction.

One Cabinet ally of Mr Blair is reported to have told the BBC's Nick Robinson tonight: "He would be a fucking dreadful Prime Minister and I will do everything in my power to stop him."

Mike Smithson has a theory that this is what the row has really been about - that Brown has realised Blair intends to make a real contest of it by stringing out his departure and endorsing other candidates' right to put themselves forward.

If that proves to be the case, then this week's shenangigans will prove only to have been the opening skirmishes in a bitter and protracted civil war.

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Okay, here's The Deal (III)

Tony Blair is due to set out later today the plans for his departure, but unless he agrees to go before the Scottish and Welsh elections in May, I can't see it resolving the current crisis.

As I wrote yesterday, it is these elections that now lie at the heart of the issue, and the very real fear among MPs that Labour will lose control of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly unless Blair is gone by then.

Blair and Brown are reported to have had a furious bust-up, with the Chancellor demanding that the PM go before Christmas, and Blair continuing to dig his heels in.

As both the Times and Guardian have argued in their leader columns this morning, some sort of deal is now urgently necessary to stop the Government imploding. Here's what I think such a deal would need to say in order for it to stick.

* Brown publicly disassociates himself from the current attempts to force Blair out of office now and endorses the need for him to be allowed to make a "dignified exit."

* Blair announces that he will leave 10 Downing Street on May 4, 2007, immediately after the local and devolved elections, and three days after the 10th anniversary of his coming to power.

* Labour convenes a special conference in January to trigger an election for a new leader of the party, to be in place by March.

* A two-month dual premiership then ensues, with the new Labour leader heading up the party's campaign for the local and devolved elections while Blair remains a "caretaker" Prime Minister.

* Blair makes clear that he continues to endorse Brown as his successor and disowns the comments by Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers which appear to suggest the need for a different direction.

* Brown continues to make clear that his Government will be New Labour to the core -which to be fair he always has done.

If this scenario appears slightly to favour Brown, it is because it is the Chancellor who is in the stronger political position at the moment.

But there needs to be compromise on both sides now. If there isn't, Blair is going to end up being dragged kicking and screaming from power, and the only winners will be the Tories.

Update: Obviously the essence of my proposed deal is that Blair gives up being party leader in March before he gives up being Prime Minister in May. Guido has a post in which he refers to this solution as "the Aznar," after a similar arrangement in Spain before Jose Maria Aznar stepped down.

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