Monday, June 25, 2007

Early election fever

Amid all the excited talk in both the MSM and the blogosphere about Gordon Brown calling an early general election, I offer this by way of a counter-argument.

As reported here at the height of the speculation over whether David Miliband would challenge him, Gordon has already made it clear that he intends to serve only one full-term as Prime Minister, and that he expects to hand over to a younger successor (Miliband?) within seven years.

So to get an idea of how far away the next election is, you just have to do the sums and work backwards. A full Parliament equals five years, and seven minus five equals two. Ergo, Gordon plans to hold the election in 2009, and serve as premier until the end of that Parliament in 2014.

I think it will take more to deflect him from this course than the kind of short-term polling advantage over the Tories that we saw this weekend.

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3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Latest poll that's come out this evening puts Labour 5% behind the Tories,whatever happened to the Brown bounce or was it meant to be a dead cat bounce?

John,

Richard Bailey said...

You are being a bit too rigid in your thinking, Paul.

Not withstanding some pretty serious cash flow issues, the only election GB can gaurantee winning is an early one. Leaving it to 2009 before trying to start his 5yr term would be foolhardy in the extreme.

GB has to go right now to stand any chance of winning and only then can he enjoy any sort of confidence that he can win a second election and hand over half way through the term.

That makes seven too!!

Trouble is, all this takes decisions and courage and if there are two things we know coward Gordon doesn't have, its decisiveness and courage.

yours aye!

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