The Lib-Lab Dream Team

Today has been quite the grimmest weather I can remember on election day since I was old enough to vote. It may be a case of rose-tinted spectacles, but in my recollection all the others dawned bright and sunny. "The sun's out, and so are the Tories," quipped Neil Kinnock in '92. They were - but not in the way he meant. They were out at the polling stations ensuring victory for John Major.

Maybe this is a good omen, however. All of those bright and sunny election days ended in disappointment for yours truly, with the election of either a Tory government (1983, 1987 and 1992) or a pseudo-Tory one (1997, 2001 and 2005.) Today, for the first time in my adult life, there is the tantalising prospect of something genuinely different.

Of course, I'm not holding my breath. I have made clear in my Saturday column that I think the likeliest outcome today is a minority Conservative government, with a second election a little way down the line.

The result I am hoping for, however, is one which paves the way for a pro-reform coalition between the Liberal Democrats and post-Brownite Labour which can put this country's bent electoral system right once and for all.

To my mind, the chances of such a coalition depend on the Lib Dems outpolling Labour in the popular vote, for two reasons. Firstly, because such a result would make such a mockery of the current system that it will be rendered even more unsustainable than at present.

Secondly, because a 2nd or even 1st place for the Lib Dems in terms of share of the vote tonight could actually facilitate the arrival of Nick Clegg as the first Liberal Prime Minister since David Lloyd George.

Of all the possible election outcomes that have been outlined by the pundits over the past four weeks, the one that made most sense to me was Will Hutton's piece in last Sunday's Observer entitled: "If Labour is wise, it will usher Nick Clegg into Downing Street."

To coin a phrase, I agree with Will. If Labour comes third tonight and the Lib Dems second, Gordon Brown should immediately fall on his sword, and a caretaker triumvirate of Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson and Alistair Darling should deliver the Labour Party into a Lib-Lab coalition led by Clegg, the undisputed winner of this campaign.

What might such a coalition look like? Well, I've sketched out a possible version below. It has nine Lib Dem members and 13 Labour members, the latter incorporating the most pro-reform elements of the current Cabinet - Alan Johnson, Ben Bradshaw, Peter Hain and Lord Adonis for example.

With No 10 going to Mr Clegg, the Lib Dems could not have the Treasury as well, so Alistair Darling would stay on, reflecting his hard-earned status as the most trustworthy of Labour's senior figures.

The new Prime Minister aside, Chris Huhne would have the toughest job - as Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor it would be his task to pilot through the biggest set of constitutional reforms since those of the Liberal government of 1906, but the man who so narrowly missed out on the Lib Dem leadership is certainly equal to it.

As for Labour....it should take its time to elect a new leader, but my tip is Mr Bradshaw, an excellent minister who has very few enemies in the party, has an interesting personal back-story, and, unsurprisingly enough for a former TV journalist, is very good on the box.

The Great Reform Cabinet of 2010

Prime Minister: Nick Clegg
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Cabinet Office: Alan Johnson
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alistair Darling
Foreign Secretary: David Miliband
Home Secretary: John Denham
Justice Secretary: Chris Huhne
Leader of the House of Commons: Harriet Harman
Business Secretary: Vince Cable
Defence Secretary: Lord Ashdown
Education Secretary: Ben Bradshaw
Health Secretary: Andy Burnham
Work and Pensions Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Climate Change Secretary: Ed Miliband
Environment Secretary: Ed Davey
Transport Secretary: Lord Adonis
Communities Secretary: Julia Goldsworthy
Culture Secretary: Tessa Jowell
Leader of the House of Lords: Baroness Williams
Scottish Secretary: Charles Kennedy
Welsh Secretary: Peter Hain
Northern Ireland Secretary: Shaun Woodward
International Development Secretary: Douglas Alexander
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: David Laws
Chief Whip: Bob Ainsworth

Will DC bring DD back?

No, says Iain Dale, who as Davis's close friend and former campaign manager probably knows more than most.

But I'm not so sure. As I've said on Iain's blog, Cameron does not strike me as a vindictive man and if, in time, it becomes clear that bringing back Davis in a senior role would strengthen the team - which in my view it will - I think he'll probably be prepared to let bygones be bygones.

Whereas incoming Labour Prime Ministers are required by the party's own rules to appoint Shadow Cabinet members to the Cabinet - although it didn't stop Tony Blair sacking four of them after a year - there is a fairly long Conservative tradition of bringing in heavyweights from outside whenever the party enters government.

Lord Carrington, chosen as Foreign Secretary from outside the then Shadow Cabinet by Margaret Thatcher in 1979, was an example.

There has been much talk in Tory circles about whether Prime Minister Cameron would bring in, not just DD, but also IDS, Ken Clarke and even Peter Lilley if he wins the next general election.

Such talk is a tacit recognition that the current Shadow Cabinet, while strong on intellect and ideas, is lacking in that indefinable quality that, in the days of Trollope, used to be known as "bottom."

My guess is that at least two of the aforementioned "Big Beasts" will return, and that the first Cameron Cabinet will indeed look fairly different from the current Shadow Cabinet line-up.

Labour after Brown?

A thoughtful piece by Andrew Sparrow in today's Guardian on what the Labour Party might look like after Gordon. It focuses on a speech by David Lammy - once dubbed "the Black Blair" by The Sun - which in fact sounded more Cameroonian than Blairite - particularly in its references to the "good society."

On a similar but lighter note, the Daily Pundit blog came up with a hugely entertaining prediction of what David Miliband's first Cabinet might look like, which I have been meaning to link to.

I have a few issues with his choices, mind. The Pundit reckons Prime Minister Miliband would make his brother Ed Foreign Secretary and James Purnell Chancellor. My money would be on Geoff Hoon and John Hutton for those two posts.

Perhaps we're all getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Over on Political Betting, HenryG Manson reckons Gordon Brown is good value at 50-1 to be still leading the party in 2013.

A real "government of all the talents?"

Sir Michael White suggests J-Lo for International Development and a comeback at Defence for Denis Healey in today's G2. Iain Dale reckons Sir Alan Sugar is joining the Government. I'm not sure which of these to treat more seriously.

Here, for what it's worth, is what I think a real "government of all the talents" might look like. It is mainly made up of current Westminster players, but there are one or two leftfield choices as well as the odd blast from the past. Enjoy!

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown. Unfortunately, Big Denis is now too old for the job at 89.
Foreign Secretary: Lord Ashdown. This is really the post he should have been offered this week.
Chancellor: David Miliband. Time to see what the Boy David is really made of.
Home Secretary: David Davis. Okay, he's a Tory, but he's against ID cards which puts him to the left of Reid in my view.
Minister of Justice: Harriet Harman. She has impressed me of late.
Leader of the House of Commons: Ken Clarke. Most popular boy in the House and a genuine parliamentary reformer.
Environment Secretary: David Cameron. Let him see if he can walk the walk as well as talk the talk.
Education Secretary: Alan Johnson. A round peg in a round hole - no change needed here.
Health Secretary: Yvette Cooper. Should have been in the Cabinet five years ago.
Nations and Regions Secretary: Peter Hain. It's high time we got rid of the territorial departmens.
Defence Secretary: John Reid. This, not Home Sec, was the job for him.
Transport Secretary: Ken Livingstone. The only conceivable choice.
Local Government and Communities Secretary: Nick Raynsford. No-one understands local government better.
Work and Pensions Secretary: David Willetts. It needs more than one brain to sort this one out.
Leader of the Lords: Baroness Shirley Williams. A great, great lady.
Culture Secretary: James Purnell. Surely all that sucking up to Gordon shouldn't be in vain?
International Development Secretary: Bob Geldof. Is there a more serious political figure in the land?
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Chris Huhne. Had to get him in somewhere.

My two penn'orth on Gordon's first Cabinet

As Ben Brogan so rightly says, the potential for egg-on-face with this is huge, but since everyone else is at it - well, Iain Dale anyway - here's my current take on where things stand in the Gordon's Government stakes following John Reid's surprise exit.

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister: Alan Johnson
Foreign Secretary: David Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Jack Straw
Home Secretary (Minister for Homeland Security): Alistair Darling
Lord Chancellor (Minister of Justice): Hilary Benn
Leader of the House of Commons: Geoff Hoon
Nations and Regions Secretary: Peter Hain
Environment and Energy Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Defence Secretary: Douglas Alexander
Education Secretary: Hazel Blears
Health Secretary: Caroline Flint
Trade and Industry Secretary: Ed Balls
Transport Secretary: Stephen Timms
Work and Pensions Secretary: Ruth Kelly
Culture Secretary: James Purnell
International Development Secretary: John Denham
Local Government and Communities Secretary: Jacqui Smith
Minister for the Cabinet Office (Social Exclusion): Andy Burnham
Leader of the House of Lords: Lord Falconer
Party Chairman: Jon Cruddas
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Ed Miliband
Chief Whip: Nick Brown

The following will be leaving the Government:

Tony Blair
John Prescott
John Reid
Margaret Beckett
Patricia Hewitt
Des Browne
John Hutton
Tessa Jowell
Hilary Armstrong
Baroness Amos

The big thing I'm unsure about is Deputy PM. I'm not sure Brown wants one, but if Alan Johnson wins the deputy leadership as expected, I think he'll be obliged to have one. This is why I've said all along that Jon Cruddas, who doesn't want the title, is really Gordon's candidate.

I've earmarked a new job for Peter Hain which effectively amounts to overlord of devolved administrations. This is essentially a beefed-up version of his current role as Welsh and Northern Ireland Secretary, taking in also what is now the very thorny issue of relations with the Scottish Parliament.

I thought long and hard about Margaret Beckett, the great survivior of Labour politics. I think Brown will reluctantly ask her to step aside for now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her back as Leader of the Lords after a General Election.

Finally, I think this is a work in progress as much in Gordon's mind as in everyone else's, and the nature of politics being what it is, the situation will almost certainly change between now and the end of July - so expect to see the odd update from time to time.

Gordon's Government - II

....Who will be following Blair and Prescott out of the door?




Last week, in the first of my series of posts on the likely make-up of Gordon Brown's Cabinet, I said I believed that up to eight ministers - more than a third of the Cabinet - could be leaving the government as a result of the transition.

The identity of two of them we already know - Tony Blair himself, and his deputy John Prescott who announced last October that he would be following his boss into retirement.

But who will join them? Which veterans of the New Labour years might have to be asked to make way for new blood - and which Blair loyalists might find they have pinned their colours rather too closely to Mr Tony's mast for his successor's liking?

Well, there are two over-60s among the ranks of the Cabinet's Blairite sisterhood who appear vulnerable on both grounds - Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell, and Social Exclusion Minister Hilary Armstrong.

In the days when she was John Smith’s parliamentary private secretary, Ms Armstrong was once close to Mr Brown. But over the years, she has become more and more identified with the Blairite cause, most notably during an undistinguished stint as Chief Whip.

I suspect that she finds the social exclusion role much more to her liking, but at 61, she is surely living on borrowed political time.

As for Ms Jowell, her chances of remaining on board are additionally hampered by having been caught up sleaze accusations as a result of her husband David Mills' involvement with the corrupt Italian media tycoon-cum-politician Silvio Berlusconi.

Her solution to that was to claim she had known nothing of the link and then to lay down her marriage for the sake of her career, but her tenure of the Culture brief has not greatly endeared her to the press or public and her departure would be seen as no great loss.

More controversial would be the axeing of Work and Pensions Secretary John Hutton, who has been seen as a rising star under Blair and who is still talked about in some quarters as a dark horse contender for the leadership.

I don't believe Gordon will go out of his way to victimise those who could have emerged as contenders - John Reid will be kept in a senior role for instance - but I somehow doubt if the quality of mercy will extend to Mr Hutton.

He is widely believed to have been the Cabinet minister responsible for telling the BBC's Nick Robinson last September that Mr Brown “would make a fucking dreadful Prime Minister," and I expect him to pay the political price for this outburst.

Joining him in the exit lobby will, surely, be Charlie Falconer, the "First Flatmate" and Prime Ministerial favourite who has performed much the same role for Blair as Lord Young did for Margaret Thatcher and George Wigg did for Harold Wilson,

There will also be much discussion concerning the fate of two of the Cabinet's other senior women - Margaret Beckett and Patricia Hewitt.

Mrs Beckett is now the only remaining minister who served under Callaghan and as such has an unrivalled claim to the title Great Survivor of modern Labour politics. She is also a very close ally of Mr Brown's.

But her role as Foreign Secretary is keenly coveted by a trio of heavyweights in Jack Straw, Hilary Benn and Peter Hain, and if Gordon can stomach the idea of a Derby South by-election she may well find herself asked to become Leader of the House of Lords.

That would be bad news for Valerie Amos, who has never particularly shone in the role, and also for Lord Kinnock, who some Labour sentimentalists hope might finally get to occupy a Cabinet seat in the evening of his career.

But if Mrs Beckett looks set to survive the post-Blair cull, I am far less sure about Ms Hewitt. A couple of years back, she fancied herself as the first female Chancellor, but her performance as Health Secretary has been lamentable.

Not only has she failed to convince many of her Cabinet colleagues to support the current regionalisation of health services, she has totally failed to explain it to the public either.

Australia's most famous political export is a Brownite of old, and that, together with the fact that Gordy won't want to be seen to be sacking too many women, may yet save her.

That said, it is hard to see her being offered any post that would not now be seen as a demotion, and as such she may herself conclude that her political career has now peaked.

The future of Margaret Beckett is also the main subject of my latest Podcast which is now live. A text version can be found at the Derby Evening Telegraph site.

Gordon's Government

....But who will get his old job?





With Gordon Brown's accession to the Labour leadership now looking all-but-assured, guessing the shape of his first Cabinet has become one of the favourite pasttimes of political bloggers and even some serious journalists. I myself have been challenged a couple of times to name who I think will in be Gordon's line-up.

Well, I'm not only going to take up this challenge, I'm going to do a whole series of posts on it, starting today with a look at who I think will get his current job as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Before turning to that, however, I thought I would, by way of a general introduction to the series, make some general observations about what factors I think will guide Brown in his choices.

They are: the need to be seen as a new government, the need to unite a divided party, the need to placate potential rivals, the need to ensure competence and continuity, and finally the need to reward those who have stuck by him through thick and thin.

1. A new government. Most observers now agree that the Brown accession will see a big influx of fresh talent from the younger generation, including some MPs elected as recently as 2005. I would expect at least eight members of the present Cabinet - more than a third - to leave the Government.

2. Party unity. There will, I believe, be a return to the Wilsonian style of party management. Jon Cruddas will be offered a senior role whether or not he wins the deputy leadership. Iraq War resigner John Denham will be given a Cabinet job. And some key Blairites will be kept on.

3. Placating rivals. In the same vein, Gordon will be magnanimous to those who could have emerged as potential rivals. John Reid will remain in a senior role. Charles Clarke may be offered a way back into government, though he may decline it. And then there's David Miliband....(see below)

4. Competence and continuity. I believe Gordon wants to run a government that will be noted for its quiet efficiency, with a premium on ministers who get the job done. There will be less of the putting square pegs in round holes (eg Reid to Health) that frequently happened under Blair.

5. Rewarding loyalty. There are some people who were extremely badly treated by Blair on account of their closeness to Gordon - most notably Nick Brown and Yvette Cooper. Gordon will want to repay them for the years the locusts have eaten.

So, turning to the job of Chancellor of the Exchequer, what do I think will Gordon do about his most vital appointment - that of his own successor?

Well, any assessment of this is complicated by the recent discussions about splitting the Treasury into a Ministry for Economic Affairs (also subsuming the DTI) and a Finance Ministry (a bit like the difference between a finance director and a commercial director in most companies.)

Assuming though, for the sake of argument, that the job remains intact, attention has focused primarily on two candidates.

They are Gordon's former economic adviser, now junior Treasury minister Ed Balls, and his long time ally, the Trade and Industry Secretary Alistair Darling.

Taking Balls first, I find Philip Webster convincing on this one, and not just because he goes to watch football with Balls every other Saturday.

I have long taken the view that promotion to the Chancellorship this early on in his career would be too big a leap, and according to the Political Editor of the Times, so does Gordon. Balls seems destined instead for the Chief Secretaryship, with the big promotion coming some time in the next Parliament.

So what about Alistair Darling? Well, I am going to come out against him as well, not because I think Gordon wouldn't want him as Chancellor, but because I don't think he can have him.

At a time when the Tories are seeking to make a general election issue of Brown's Scottishness, he simply cannot afford to have the two most important jobs in British politics occupied by politicians from north of the border - particularly if he also keeps John Reid at the Home Office.

That, to my mind, leaves two English candidates as the front-runners for the Treasury role.

The first of these is David Miliband. He was the only potential leadership rival that Brown ever really feared, and had he been a slightly cannier operator, I think Miliband could have played on that fear and demanded the Exchequer as his price.

But his current role as Environment Secretary has, suddenly, become a very high profile as well as a very important role in terms of helping to shape the politics of the next few years, and he may well elect to stay there.

Miliband also weakened his own negotiating position by making it clear fairly early on that he wouldn't stand for leader. In conclusion I'm not as convinced as I once was that he will end up as Chancellor, although I still think he is a very strong contender.

The other candidate is Jack Straw, the great survivor of the New Labour years. Some tip him for a return to the Foreign Office, but though this could well happen, other strong candidates for the FCO exist, notably Hilary Benn or even Peter Hain.

In contrast, there seems an absense of real heavyweight contenders for the Treasury, and I am now tending towards the view that if Brown decides to keep the department intact, Straw could well be his man, perhaps with the brief of overseeing the eventual transition to two separate departments.

But if Gordon decides to go for the Big Bang, I tip Straw to return to the Foreign Office rather than undertake either of what would both be lesser roles. In those circumstances, I would back Darling to become Economic Affairs Secretary and Miliband to take on the Finance brief.

I suspect the position will become clearer over the coming weeks as we get an idea of just how serious the proposal to split the Treasury really is.

The Restructuring of Government

The apparent confirmation by John Reid of the long-overdue restructuring of the Home Office begs several questions about what is currently going on in the corridors of power, and how if at all it relates to the forthcoming Blair-Brown handover. Dr Reid's proposal to split the creaking monolith into a Department of Homeland Security and a Ministry of Justice - a re-working of an old Number 10 initiative that was blocked by David Blunkett in 2003 - apparently has both Blair and Brown's backing.

It's an eminently sensible idea, and although it's been round the block a few times, Dr Reid's recent admission that the Home Office is "not fit for purpose" makes this a logical point at which to implement it. But that, to my mind, does not fully explain why an internal reordering of the structures of Whitehall has suddenly leaped to the top of the political agenda.

As anyone who has ever tried to draw up an organisation structure for a business will know, no discussion such as this can ever be divorced from consideration of who might fill the resulting posts. I suggest that, in the context of national politics, this is even more likely to be the case.

Reid's plan, then, and the Prime Minister-in-waiting's approval of them, has to be seen as part of a much bigger power game that is being played out within New Labour and across Whitehall.

Splitting the Home Office in the way that has been mooted will have some interesting knock-on effects. For starters, the creation of a standalone Ministry of Justice in charge of prisons, probation and the criminal justice system, will necessitate a break-up of the Department for Constitutional Affairs, which is currently responsible for the courts.

That will leave the DCA as much more what was originally envisaged when it was first created in 2003 - a "department for devolution" subsuming the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland offices, perhaps with added responsibility for issues such as Lords Reform.

So who might fill some of these roles? Is Dr Reid, for instance, eyeing up the job of being Gordon's Homeland Security supremo in return for not running against him for leader? Could the new Min of Justice create an interesting new career opportunity for Brown ally Jack Straw?

And would not the DCA's transformation into a department concerned more with political reform and devolved administrations provide a natural berth for another of Mr Brown's key allies, Peter Hain?

Allied to all this are the suggestions that Mr Brown plans to split the Treasury into a Finance Department and an Economic Department, the latter of which would subsume most of the DTI.

Once again, this change will create two senior Cabinet posts from one - perhaps enabling Brown to let Alastair Darling down gently while simultaneously buying-off his most dangerous potential rival for the leadership, David Miliband?

All in all, it will give the new Prime Minister more room for manoeuvre at a time when he is going to be anxious to appease some of the big players, while also bringing fresh talent into the Cabinet.

As Mr Blunkett has not been slow to point out, it will also give him much more power. And power is what this is really all about.

A ministry of all the talents?

"I would relish the opportunity to take on David Cameron and the Conservative Party. And in that endeavour I would be determined to draw on all the talents of our party and country." So said Gordon Brown in his conference speech on Monday, in what was probably intended more as an "inclusive" gesture to his potential Cabinet rivals than a pledge to bring Tories and Liberal Democrats into a national unity Government.

By complete coincedence, however, the BBC is currently running one of its periodic Fantasy Cabinet games which does indeed give users the right to select a team of 10 drawn from all the major parties.

Mine is predictably left-of-centre in nature, though I have found room for two Lib Dems and two Tories. Gordon Brown gets the premiership of course, as befits the most towering figure in British politics besides Blair, but I've also found room for other leadership hopefuls John Reid, David Miliband and Alan Johnson.

My favourite Tory politician, David Davis, gets the Defence brief, while David Cameron gets the consolation prize of Culture Sec, a suitably lightweight post for an incorrigibly lightweight politician.

The full list:

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister: Sir Menzies Campbell
Chancellor: David Miliband
Foreign Secretary: Peter Hain
Home Secretary: John Reid
Defence Secretary: David Davis
Health Secretary: John Denham
Education Secretary: Alan Johnson
Environment Secretary: Chris Huhne
Culture Secretary: David Cameron

Incidentally the BBC game also allows people to vote for TB. It will be interesting to see how many takers they get after yesterday.

Holiday fun

A current post on Labour Home features a "Fantasy Cabinet" with John McDonnell as PM, Bob Marshall Andrews as Home Secretary and Dianne Abbott as Health Secretary, among other things.

This will, of course, remain exactly that - a Fantasy Cabinet, though for most of us, I expect it is more the stuff of nightmares.

Meanwhile, what of the more realistic alternatives? Well, for what it's worth, here's my suggestion for a balanced Labour team to fight the next election, providing a blend of youth and experience, male and female, Blairite, Brownite, and independent left.

Readers are of very welcome to suggest their own line-ups!

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister and Communities and Regions Secretary: Hazel Blears
Chancellor of the Exchequer: David Miliband
Foreign Secretary: Hilary Benn
Home Secretary: John Denham
Leader of the House of Commons: Jack Straw
Party Chairman: Alan Johnson
Minister of Justice: Des Browne
Minister for Consitutional Affairs and Devolved Institutions: Peter Hain
Trade and Industry Secretary: Alastair Darling
Defence Secretary: John Reid
Education Secretary: John Hutton
Health Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Transport Secretary: Douglas Aleaxander
Work and Pensons Secretary: Ruth Kelly
Environment Secretary: Charles Clarke
Culture, Media and Sport: James Purnell
Leader of the Lords: Lord Kinnock
International Development Secretary: Jacqui Smith
Minister for Social Exclusion: Stephen Timms
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: John Healey
Chief Whip: Nick Brown

Out go: Tony Blair, John Prescott, Margaret Beckett, Charlie Falconer, Patricia Hewitt, Tessa Jowell, Hilary Armstrong and Valerie Amos.

Gordon's Cabinet

Some interesting speculation today from Tim Hames about who Gordon Brown will appoint to his Cabinet, assuming of course he emerges victorious over uber-Blairite challenger Alan Milburn.

Hames's ingenious suggestion is that Brown should appoint people he doesn't really get on with to the main offices of state in order to demonstrate that he is not the control freak everyone thinks he is.

Hence in Tim's fantasy line-up, Jack Straw gets to be Chancellor and John Reid Foreign Secretary, while Charles Clarke hangs onto the Home Office.

It might be good politics on Brown's part - but surely somewhat implausible in view of the Brownite - Blairite tensions and what will be Brown's understandable desire to put his own stamp on Government.

I do however agree with Hames that Brown will not make the mistake of making his closest ally, Alistair Darling, Chancellor in that it is important for the markets to know that the Chancellor is his own man. Or woman...

Here, for the record - and also because it's a bit of fun - is what I reckon Prime Minister Gordy might do:

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister and Home Secretary: Hilary Benn
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Patricia Hewitt
Foreign Secretary: Alistair Darling
Leader of the House of Commons: Charles Clarke
Constitutional Affairs Secretary: Peter Hain
Lord Chancellor: Baroness (Harriet) Harman
Party Chairman: Alan Johnson
Education Secretary: David Miliband
Health Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Defence Secretary: John Reid
Work and Pensions Secretary: Ruth Kelly
Environment Secretary: Stephen Timms
Transport Secretary: Des Browne
Trade and Industry Secretary: Douglas Alexander
Culture Secretary: Dawn Primarolo
Leader of the Lords: Lord Kinnock
Communities and Local Government Secretary: Hazel Blears
International Development Secretary: John Denham
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: John Healey
Chief Whip: Nick Brown

I'm not going to go through each choice one-by-one explaining my rationale but I for one reckon this line-up is considerably more dynamic than the existing one, which I suspect will be Brown's main intention in seeking to maintain continuity while at the same time giving the appearance of a new government.

Of the 11 casualties, seven would be voluntary retirements (Blair, Prescott, Straw, Beckett, Armstrong, McCartney, Amos) while four would be sackings (Falconer, Hoon, Jowell, Hutton.)

Reid would keep his job, both as a unifying gesture to the ultra-Blairites (likewise Miliband, Blears) and because he's simply the best Labour defence secretary available. The return of Denham would be designed to draw a clear line under the Iraq War.

In terms of machinery changes, the Wales and Northern Ireland offices would become part of the DCA (as originally planned by Blair,) while the ODPM would be renamed Local Government and Communities.