Blair cannot escape shadow of sleaze

Avoiding the temptation to write about the US elections, I returned to thye cash-for-questions affair in my latest column and accompanying Podcast this weekend.

As Mike Smithson speculates, the ongoing inquiry - which ministerial spinners assured us would be completed by now - could play an increasing important part in determining Tony Blair's departure date.

"Given the rate at which the wheels of British justice turn, it is reasonably unlikely that any charges will have been brought by the time Mr Blair leaves office as scheduled next summer.

"But the prospect of having the ongoing inquiry overshadow his final months in office has led some to speculate that Mr Blair could yet surprise us all and go early."

Has Johnson really quit the race?

Unlike Ben Brogan, I don't seriously believe Alan Johnson plans to do a U-turn and come back into the Labour leadership race - but I have to say that his new campaign website launched today had me wondering a bit.....

Yesterday, Johnson made clear he would be backing Gordon Brown, describing the Chancellor as a "towering political figure" and praising his "gravitas, experience, and intellect."

Fair enough, but somebody should have told the person putting together the media section of his new website which seems to be slightly off-message in this respect.

It currently contains the following stories, all seemingly promoting the idea of Johnson as a candidate not for the deputy leadership, but as a rival to Gordon for the top job.

"Alan Johnson displayed his leadership credentials to the Labour Party conference yesterday when he announced plans to restore confidence in school exams and to help children in care." Greg Hurst, The Times

"When the backstabbing finally stops, could Alan Johnson be the man who delivers the fatal blow to Brown?" Rachel Cooke, The Observer

"For many Labour MPs he represents the perfect alternative to the Chancellor, being everything that Mr Brown is not." Anthony Browne, The Times

"Gordon Brown's enemies are pinning their hopes on Alan Johnson." 'Bagehot," The Economist.

November 13 Update: This was post was picked up over the weekend by both PoliticalBetting.com and The Daily, both of whom provide interesting angles on it. On balance I tend towards The Daily's verdict that it was an unintended hangover from Johnson's earlier plans to contest the leadership, rather than Mike's interpretation that AJ might re-enter the race at some stage.

Johnson wakes up and smells the coffee

Education Secretary Alan Johnson has now formally ruled himself out of contention for the Labour leadership and announced he is contesting only the deputy's post - not at the Press Gallery Lunch as speculated on The Daily but in an exclusive interview with the BBC. That will piss a few people off for a start.

I must confess to being surprised. I am after all on record as having said that Johnson would "do a Prescott" and stand for both posts, while making the deputy leadership his main target. I wasn't the only one who thought this though....

What really did for him I think was his poorly received speech at the Labour Conference. He must have realised at that point that he didn't really have the support in the party to mount a meaningful challenge.

His withdrawal and declaration of support for Gordon Brown could have one of two effects. It could demonstrate that the momentum behind Brown is now such that he is unstoppable, or alternatively it could concentrate minds in the "Anyone But Gordon" camp to the effect that either (but not both) of John Hutton or Alan Milburn now emerge as serious contenders.

My assessment of the situation is that, with more than half the Cabinet on his side and the opposition to him fragmenting, Brown is looking pretty unbeatable, but politics abhors a vacuum and if at any point Gordon is seen as in any way vulnerable, someone somewhere will step into it. Even a very reluctant David Miliband might be persuaded if the alternative is a Labour election defeat.

A few weeks back, I produced this breakdown of where the various Cabinet members stand on the issue, and I think it's now time for an update.

Cabinet members explicitly and publicly backing Gordon Brown for the leadership

John Prescott
Margaret Beckett
Peter Hain
David Miliband
Hilary Benn
Alan Johnson

Cabinet members who have not expressed a public preference but who are known allies of Mr Brown

Jack Straw
Alistair Darling
Douglas Alexander
Des Browne
Ruth Kelly
Stephen Timms

Cabinet members who are currently remaining neutral or who have expressed no known public or private preference

Tony Blair
Patricia Hewitt
Hilary Armstrong
Jacqui Smith
Valerie Amos

Cabinet members who, while not allies of Mr Brown, have signalled that they will not run against him for the leadership

John Reid
Hazel Blears

Cabinet members who have privately expressed doubts about Mr Brown and who could reliably be expected to support "Anyone but Gordon" - if such a candidate exists

John Hutton
Charles Falconer
Tessa Jowell