Thursday, May 01, 2008

Big bloggers call it for Boris

Right from the outset of the London Mayoral contest, I have had great difficulty believing in any other outcome than a victory for Ken Livingstone. To my mind, London is a Labour city, and despite his many personal foibles, Ken's overall political record as London Mayor is a strong one.

Furthermore, he is up against a principal opponent in Boris Johnson who, for all his wit and charm, is regarded as a buffoon by many voters and whose track record of offending minorities hardly seems to fit him for the mayoral role.

Yet, as someone who has followed this contest from a distinct distance, it's impossible to ignore the growing consensus among those bloggers who have followed it much more closely.

Both Mike Smithson, of Political Betting and Guido Fawkes have already called the election for Boris, Mike arguing that the core Tory vote is much more solid for Johnson than the Labour vote for Livingstone.

Smithson rarely if ever gets these things wrong, but admittedly Guido's record is mixed. He wrongly called the Labour deputy leadership election for Alan Johnson last year, but correctly called both Lib Dem leadership contests in 2006 and 2007.

My head tells me they must both be right, but my heart still tells me they are wrong. We'll know the answer soon enough.

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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

A big vote of thanks from Tory supporters to Lee Jasper,Quaradawi,Chavez and Castro and the PC lobby.

Jim,

Oli said...

Interesting comments on thinking London to be a Labour city. I've never thought of it in such a way (too big and diverse a place) but my gut reaction would be the other way.

Having said that, the party affiliations seem a little irrelevant - I think the London Mayoral Election will be voted (and has been campaigned) on personalities first and policies second; party affiliarions are a long way down the list of concerns.

As a long-standing Londoner I'd rather cut my own nose off with a butter knife and fry it in cod liver oil than see Livingstone back in power.


Oli.

Matt Buck said...

>I'd rather cut my own nose off with a butter knife and fry it in cod liver oil than see Livingstone back in power.

It's going to be a novelty to see any local Labour politicians in power for a while...

stephen rouse said...

Can't help thinking a Boris mayorality (if that's the word) could backfire long-term for the Tories. If he spends two years getting into scrapes and ignoring ordinary Londoners, Labour can depict Cameron (comfortable background, Eton, Oxford, even less real-world experience than Boris) as more of the same on a national scale.

Oli said...

Matt,

Looks like my hooter is nice and safe then, eh!


Oli.