Could Hague lead the Tories again?

It usually takes me a few days to plough through the Sunday papers, so it wasn't until I was on the bus this morning that I came across Isobel Oakeshott's
big interview with William Hague in this weekend's Sunday Times.

Hague is quoted as saying he would never, ever wish to lead the Tory Party again, saying that his period in charge gave him the "self knowledge" to realise someone else could do it better.

“I’ve got that all out of my system. Totally,” he says. “I’m glad I was the leader but I’m glad I stopped. I’d had enough. I thought someone else would turn out to be more effective than me and that’s very much the case. I’m a fan of DC and I enjoy working with him, and I’ve only come back to help him win the next election. I don’t ever want to be leader again myself. I could happily write books instead. I enjoy that at least as much as politics.”

“No sane human being who’s done it before would want to do it again. You have to have self-knowledge, in any job. I came to the conclusion that someone else should be doing it.”

There is something that rings true about this. In my dealings with Hague, notably when he was at the Welsh Office and I was on the South Wales Echo, I generally found him to be very straight. And that is not a sexual pun, by the way.

Nevertheless, I think there's a difference between actively seeking high office, and not refusing it when it's handed to you on a plate. Or as the old saying puts it: "Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."

The Tories would never again entrust Hague with the task of returning them to power. But I can foresee a situation where, once in power, they might turn to him, as Foreign Secretary and the nearest thing they have to an elder statesman, to hold things together in some future, currently unforeseen crisis.

Would he say no in those circumstances? I doubt it. He is a politician after all.

Conspiracy theories

Not surpisingly, the number of conspiracy theories about last Thursday's terror said continues to multiply on the web.

Even if you don't believe in them, they certainly make entertaining reading.

* Shaphan suggests the whole thing was set up by the security services to help John Reid, who he claims is their preferred candidate to succeed Blair as Prime Minister.

* Craig Murray argues that the episode is designed to deflect attention from Blair and Bush's domestic troubles, and urges us all to "be very sceptical."

* Guido says it's designed to lay the ground for further harsh anti-terror measures, a claim given added credence by this report in Scotland on Sunday.

Meanwhile Paul Donovan takes all of us hacks to task on the Press Gazette site for our tendency to believe everything the authorities tell us. Yeah right.

My verdict? Yes, there probably was a plot, and yes, it is in the nature of governments - especially this one - to exploit such situations for all they are worth.

But Reid as MI5's candidate for PM? Surely not. Don't they realise he's a former Commie?

Lampard-Gerrard conundrum spelled axe for Beckham

Unfortunately I ran out of time on Friday afternoon to do a post on David Beckham's axeing from the England squad, but I have to say my sympathies were originally with the former skipper.

Beckham may be past his best, but England's dismal World Cup campaign would have been even more catastrophic without his goals and assists, and initially it appeared he had been singled out by Steve McLaren as a "political" gesture designed to show that he is his own man.

Now all becomes clear, however. McLaren has picked the great Steven Gerrard to play in Beckham's old position on the right of midfield, presumably in order to leave the central midfield area free for Frank Lampard.

It was obvious during the Wodld Cup that Gerrard and Lampard were getting under eachother's feet. Now McLaren is attempting to solve the problem, with Beckham's omission the collateral damage.

Greasy pole: is Reid up or down?

As previously billed my newspaper columns and Podcast this weekend focused on whether Home Secretary John Reid's leadership chances have increased as a result of last week's terror raids.

Interestingly, Iain Dale is taking a rather contrarian view on this, arguing that his sidelining of Prescott and apparent eagerness to assume command will be unpopular with Labour loyalists.

My own view is that the chances of a Reid candidature have increased, but not necessarily the chances of a Reid premiership.

I agree with Iain to the extent that there is a fair amount of hostility to Reid and his right-wing, populist agenda within Labour circles, and that if he was to be chosen to succeed Blair, it could only be as a choice made out of electoral desperation:

"A Reid premiership remains unlikely. But what if the Labour Party’s poll ratings started to go into freefall and the public appeared increasingly bored by the prospect of Mr Brown? In that scenario, the press could start to get behind him as a tough leader capable of restoring the Government’s flagging fortunes and re-enthusing a jaded electorate.

"The momentum could then build to a point where not only would Dr Reid look silly if he did not stand, but the Labour Party would look silly if it did not elect him."

On a similar theme, I was suitably honoured to be asked to fill the Guest Slot on PoliticalBetting.Com today, in which I look at the role that Alan Johnson could play in the leadership shake-down.

My current thinking is that Johnson may well stand for both the leadership and the deputy leadership, but with the latter as his main goal.

Leaving my own punditry aside, however, the most interesting article I saw on the Labour leadership this weekend was from Oona King in the Observer.

Although the main thrust of the piece was to call for a woman deputy leader - no great surprise there - the degree of venom directed at Tony Blair was astonishing coming from someone who was previously regarded as a such a loyalist.

It's shaping up for Reid v Brown

Odds are shortening on a John Reid leadership challenge after his assured response to the terror raids, says Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting.Com.

Hard to disagree, and I'll be saying a fair bit more about this in my weekend newspaper columns and podcast which, as ever, will be available here on Monday.

Argies invade the Bloglands

A couple of months back, a propos of the ongoing debate over Margaret Thatcher's funeral arrangements, I put a semi light-hearted comment on this blog to the effect that the affair should be private. As in privatised, that is.

As is often the case with blogging, this post has now belatedly come to the notice of a bunch of Argentines who, under the leadership of one Carlos A. Carpanzano, last night invaded this blog to proffer their own, less than savoury suggestions on what should happen to the Iron Lady's mortal remains.

To add insult to injury, some of the comments were in Spanish and, even worse, most of them were anonymous (I am currently having a long internal argument with myself about whether to ban anonymous posters from the blog.)

How do other visitors feel about it? Should we strike back, send a task force, remove these Argie occupiers from our territory? Or is it, in the spirit of universal brotherhood that is the blogosphere, just time to let bygones be bygones?

Sid the Sexist, eat your heart out

According to reports, Apprentice winner Michelle Dewberry has now been sent home on "gardening leave" by her boss Sir Alan Sugar after becoming pregnant by fellow contestant Syed.

I suspect that most people's reaction to this sorry tale will be one of schadenfreude. This is Britain after all, and we love nothing better than to see ambitious young kids like Michelle put in their place.

But does anyone apart from me think that, in an age when women regularly juggle motherhood and careers, Sir Alan is being a tad neanderthal about it all?

Sports Non-Event of the Year

When I were a lad, one of the highlights of my year around Christmas time was the BBC's Sports Personality of the Year programme, which, back in those far-off days, gave us the chance to relive all the great sporting moments of the year gone by.

Sadly, it is now but a shadow of its former self, the absense of real sport on the BBC leaving the programme reliant on gimmickry, chat, and occasional off-colour remarks by the presenters.

The BBC won't even show clips of the sport it still has - notably Wimbledon, football and snooker - presumably for fear of highlighting what it doesn't have.

In short, the programme, and the oddly-named award itself, has become one of those great annual television non-events that we somehow still feel compelled to watch, second in this respect only to the even more meaningless Eurovision Song Contest.

And yet the national press seemingly remains obsessed with the show. Over recent weeks, national sports coverage appears to have turned into a running commentary, (c) all newspapers, into whose name is on the award this year.

Here's a sample from the national media following England's cricketing triumphs over Pakistan, which has propelled spinner Monty Panesar (pictured) into the status of bookies' favourite.

"As the wickets fell at Headingley yesterday so too did the odds on Monty Panesar winning the 2006 BBC Sports Personality Of The Year." - The Guardian.

"Confirmation of Panesar’s place in the national consciousness came with the news that William Hill, the bookmakers, had last night made Panesar their 7-2 favourite to become BBC Sports Personality of the Year." - The Times.

"With so many other big names floundering across the English sports spectrum, the popular Panesar could even be bowling himself into contention to succeed Andrew Flintoff as BBC Sports Personality of the Year." Daily Mail.

"With Andrew Flintoff on the sidelines, Panesar has taken over as the focus of affection for England fans. Now Panesar is one of the top five contenders to follow Flintoff as BBC Sports Personality of the Year." - The BBC.

I don't want to take anything away from Panesar. He looks like the best spin bowling prospect in English cricket since Phil Tufnell and possibly even Derek Underwood. But his achievements and talent should speak for themselves without the addition of this pointless bauble.

It's doubtless too much to expect the BBC to knock their wretched award on the head. But it's surely high time the rest of the media ceased their obsession with it.

Balancing the ticket

The Guardian's Patrick Wintour reckons Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain is leading the race for Labour's deputy leadership. Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting.com is a tad sceptical, repeatedly highlighting Hain's young liberal background.

For my part, I reckon all speculation about the deputy leadership depends entirely on whether the two elections come off at the same time, because what happens in the deputy leadership election will inevitably be determined by what happens in the leadership election.

If Gordon is the only serious candidate - McDonnell is not serious and may not even get the required number of nominations - then we may indeed see the kind of wide-ranging contest for deputy that most are anticipating.

But if Gordon is challenged, either from the Blairite right or the sensible/soft left, then it's a whole new ball game. We will then be into pacts, deals, running mates and the rest, with the candidates seeking to demonstrate that they can unite the party by running on a balanced ticket

So far as I can judge - and in politics as in backgammon there is always the possibility of a late run - Labour's next leader and deputy leader are going to come from some or other combination of a dozen people.

Not all will stand, of course, but the potential runners are: Gordon Brown, John Reid, Peter Hain, Jack Straw, Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson, David Miliband, Hilary Benn, John Hutton, Hazel Blears, Harriet Harman, and John Denham.

Of these, Brown, Reid and Milburn will only the contest the leadership, while, in my judgement, Hain, Miliband, Blears and Harman will only consider contesting the deputy leadership,

The other five - Straw, Johnson, Benn, Hutton and Denham - could plausibly contest either post, but for reasons I shall explain, are more likely to end up as contenders for the deputy's job.

So the first question to answer, then, is will there be an "uber-Blairite" challenge to Gordon, and if so, who will it come from?

My hunch, for what it's worth, is that there will be. Brown has had to walk an incredibly difficult tightrope between outward loyalty to Blair and the desire to carve out his own agenda, and my guess is that eventually he'll fall off it.

In any case, such is the nature of politics that if Gordon is thought in any way to be beatable - and there are plenty of political pundits who think he is - then there is bound to be someone out there prepared to try their luck.

In my view Reid remains overwhelmingly the likeliest challenger, although Johnson might just run as the "English Candidate." I am certain that Milburn will dip his toe in the water, but may find his support somewhat lacking among MPs.

Let's for the sake of argument, then, assume it is Brown v Reid. Johnson will then be the big prize, the man with both the modernising credentials and the trade union links capable of delivering victory to either side.

If Brown can land him, he will have what looks like an unbeatable combination - a running mate who, like him, can authentically claim to be both New Labour and Real Labour.

If on the other hand Reid gets Johnson's backing, and all the other Blairites fall into line behind the Home Secretary, it will begin to look like a conspiracy to deny Brown the top job, and the Chancellor could end up looking isolated

Then again, this could work in Brown's favour, if Labour members as a whole decide that an obviously Blairite ticket would be incapable of uniting the party.

To me, the most intriguing possiblity is that the party ignores all talk of running mates and puts together a balanced ticket itself, as it did in 1994 when neither Prescott nor Beckett were officially aligned with Blair.

If so, then perhaps the most plausible potential deputy leadership contender in the frame is the one once described by the Brownites as the "when hell freezes over" candidate.

Almost alone of all the potential combinations, Gordon Brown as leader and Hazel Blears as deputy would give us a balance of Brown and Blairite, Male and Female, Scottish and English, Older and Younger.

Will it happen? I have no idea. But if it does - remember, you read it here first.

Tom Mangold makes my day!

Yesterday morning Iain Dale posted a piece on his blog criticising Panorama's latest tabloid-style documentary on the water industry. Agreeing with the general thrust of this, I posted a light-hearted comment saying "Bring back Tom Mangold!"

Imagine my surprise when I logged onto my computer this morning to find an email from Mangold himself thanking me for my comments!

The man is actually a journalistic hero of mine, having produced a brilliant Panorama documentary on the miscarriage of justice surrounding the Cardiff Three murder case which inspired me, as a reporter on the South Wales Echo in the early 90s, to try and do my bit to get the case reopened.

I'm not sure if my efforts had any effect at the time, but the Cardiff Three were eventually completely vindicated in 2003, when Jeffrey Ghafour - the notorious "Mr X" of numerous newspaper investigations into the crime - admitted the killing having been nailed by advances in DNA technology.

More cross-dressing

I suppose that as political transvetitism goes, it would take a fair bit to top this piece of sheer audacity from Home Secretary John Reid at the weekend.

I agree with him as it happens. It's not racist to want to have a debate about whether immigration policies are serving the country's wider interests. But it's only 15 months since the Tories were being described as exactly that for seeking to have that debate during the general election campaign.

If this is now official Labour policy, I think that the least the party can now do is apologise to Michael Howard for the unjustified slurs of April and May last year.

If however it's just another piece of freelancing by Dr Reid, then I think he just kissed goodbye to any prospect of mounting an effective challenge to Gordon Brown for the leadership. However well this kind of thing might go down with the general public, the Labour electorate is a different audience.

Meanwhile, more from me on the question of whether stealing other parties' political clothes really is here to stay in my newspaper columns and associated Podcast at the weekend, developing a theme explored on this blog last week.

My overall verdict is that, whilst politicians may be happy to play these sorts of games, there is no great evidence of the growth of political transvestitism amongst the public at large.

"If anything, the dominant trend at recent elections has not being people switching from one party to another, but switching from one party to no party.

"Furthermore, it is hard to argue that New Labour’s “politics without conscience,” as William Hague once memorably termed it, has not been one of the biggest reasons why.

"Turning politics into an ideology-free-zone may please the Rupert Murdochs of this world, but for millions of ordinary voters, it merely leaves them disillusioned and disenfranchised.

"It seems that rather than resort to political transvestitism, we would rather be seen wearing no clothes at all."

Read the full version HERE.

Who's running Britain: the annual non-story

Okay, so it's a great story, all the more so at a time of year when good political stories are in very short supply. Fat old working-class fool who can't speak the language properly and mispronounces the names of foreign leaders is left to run the country for a fortnight, opening up the prospect of a whole series of disasters along the way.

Or, at least, it would be a great story, if there was any truth in it. Because the truth is that, whether he is a fat old fool or not, John Prescott has never actually been left in charge of anything in Tony Blair's absense.

There seems to be an assumption on the part of the people writing this stuff that Mr Blair somehow ceases to be Prime Minister when he is on holiday. That might have been the case had we still been living in the era of carrier-pigeons, or when ocean liners were the only form of foreign travel, but not in an era of modern communications and transport.

Doutbless it won't stop the stories being written though, even if Mr Blair's decision to postpone his holiday means they have to be shelved for a few days.

Walter Wolfgang joins Labour's NEC

Possibly the greatest victory against NuLab control freakery since Peter Mandelson failed to be elected to the NEC in 1997! Read the full story HERE.

I was however genuinely surprised by this result as, from her Loughborough Uni days onwards, Lorna Fitzsimons has always been good at getting elected to things, occasionally employing some innovative techniques in order to do so.