Mike Smithson seems taken in by today's Spectator "revelation" that Alastair Campbell thinks Blair will stay on "for a year and a bit," namely until next year's Labour Party Conference.
This is a little surprising, given that it is only a matter of days since Mike's highly-esteemed Political Betting.com site was saying he would go in
2006.
Leaving that aside though, I wonder what it is that makes him think that anything Alastair Campbell says can possibly be taken at face value, given that the man is a proven master of disinformation?
On this occasion, I don't think it even qualifies as that, more a hopeless case of wishful thinking from a man seemingly in denial about the extent of the crisis now facing the Prime Minister.
I am on record many times as saying Blair would step down on or around the 10th anniversary of his coming to power, namely on May 2, 2007, but I now take the view that that is the absolute limit of how long he can realistically hope to remain in power.
As one MP said recently: "The Labour Party will let him do 10 years. If he tries to go a day longer than that, they will kill him."
Assuming, of course, that Inspector Knacker doesn't get him first.
Unfortunately I wasn't able to get along to St James' Piccadilly on Saturday to join Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, David Blunkett et al in offering my congratulations to New Labour's latest celebrity couple as I was down in the lovely town of Rye (pictured) celebrating the fifth anniversary of my own marriage to Gill.
