The great game of political forecasting

Mike Smithson is currently inviting entries to his annual Political Forecaster of the Year contest over on PoliticalBetting.com. There are 27 questions in all, ranging from the holders of the major offices, to the extent of the post-Blair bounce, to the likely net gains and losses in the May elections.

My entry is already in, but for the benefit of my own readers, here are my answers to the first five questions together with a short explanation of my choice.

On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)

1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown.) As it's a game, that 150 point bonus looked very tempting. But I genuinely do believe it will be Gordon, and I'm not about to switch horses now.

2. Leader of the Opposition. It will be David Cameron. The Tory right may not like what he is doing, but they won't move against him. Until he loses an election, that is.

3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats. Nick Clegg, after a narrow victory over Chris Huhne. Expect Sir Ming to bow out during the summer "on health grounds" after continuing to fail to make an impact.

4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. This one is the closest to call but I am plumping for Jon Cruddas over Hilary Benn, just because I think Labour members will see it as their chance to have a "say."

5. Chancellor of the Exchequer. Will be David Miliband, in return for not standing for leader. The Miliblogger is the only man who can beat Gordy, and he will have extracted the Treasury job as the price of the deal.

Update: Mike is also inviting contributions on who will be the first minister to resign or be sacked this year. Patricia Hewitt looks quite good value to me at 18-1.

A return to barbarism

I have made it clear in previous posts that I am opposed to the death penalty, even for criminals of the magnitude of Saddam Hussein, but even if you agreed with the execution, there is surely room for debate over the manner in which it was carried out, and I suspect this is what John Prescott was on about this morning.

As a means of ending someone's life, hanging is a barbaric practice which deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history. A public hanging such as this was, with people shouting abuse at Saddam as he went to the gallows, belongs even more surely in the middle ages.

If we have to have the death penalty at all, then surely the most humane method of killing is by lethal injection. To deny Saddam's humanity by arguing that this would be "too good" for him is simply to stoop to his level.

Some bloggers have decided to display the mobile phone video images of the moment of death. The blogosphere is a free world - mercifully - and that's their right. But Jonathan Calder on Liberal England has a typically thoughtful post in which he compares it to pornography, and I agree with him.

Podcast enters its second year

My Week in Politics Podcast is now one year old having orginally begun just before Christmas 2005 as an experiment on the this is regional websites which I was helping to manage at the time.

Regular readers of this blog may already have seen my look back at the political year 2006 and look ahead to 2007 in text form, but both are now available as podcasts. The Review of 2006 is available HERE, and the Preview of 2007 HERE.

Meanwhile, I am pleased to report some recognition for the podcast from Jonathan Shepherd over at Tory Radio, another blogger who helped pioneer the podcast medium. He has awarded me a CBE for "services to political podcasting" in his unofficial New Year's Honours List.

It's the only New Year's Honours List on which I am likely to feature, or indeed have any desire to, so cheers Jonathan!