Back from the brink

After a couple of days in which it looked like New Labour could genuinely implode, Messrs Blair and Brown appear to have stepped back from the brink once more.

Blair has done the sensible thing and, instead of seeking to provoke Brown beyond endurance, has acknowledged (a) that he probably will end up stepping down well before the end of his third term, (b) that he will organise an orderly handover, and (c) that Gordon remains, publicly at least, his chosen successor.

Inevitably this has been interpreted as meaning he will go next year, but as I have said before, I always thought that was the likelist scenario.

As Nick Robinson has noted, Brown has very little alternative but to go along with this, unless he wants to inherit a fatally divided party.

Of all the punditry that has appeared on this over recent days, quite the most ludicrous came from Robert Harris, who argued that Blair should in fact sack Brown unless he publicly commits to allow him to serve a full third term.

And what do you suppose Gordon would then do next, Mr Harris? Say: "Okay Tony, you win," and slink off to the backbenches to make the occasional speech on neo-endogenous growth theory? No, he would be straight down the Strangers' Bar with Nicky Brown and Dougie Henderson to organise a leadership contest.

By contrast, the most sensible piece of advice was yesterday's Guardian leader pointing out the huge responsibilities now lying on both men to avoid a civil war.

I think they may have just about managed it - for now.

Blair-must-go watch update:

Calling for Blair to go now/this year

Andrew Smith
Frank Dobson
Ashok Kumar
Glenda Jackson
The Guardian
The Daily Telegraph
The Economist
The New Statesman
Polly Toynbee
Matthew Parris
Jonathan Freedland
Stephen Pollard
Paul Linford
Bloggerheads
BBC Newsnight poll
Times Populus poll

Demanding a timetable for leadership handover

Neal Lawson/Compass
Nick Raynsford
Martin Salter

Calling for Blair to go next year

The Times
Rhodri Morgan

Calling for Blair to serve "full third term."

Robert Harris
Janet Anderson

Reshuffle gives new legs to English Parliament campaign

Tony Blair's decision to make John Reid Home Secretary and promote Douglas Alexander to Transport Secretary has given further impetus to the debate about England's democratic deficit, as witness this letter by former Home Secretary Lord Baker in today's Telegraph.

Of the two, I am less concerned by Dr Reid's appointment. Although Scotland has a separate legal system it is not strictly the case that the Home Office is an "English-only" department, especially now that most of its work consists of dealing with homeland security issues.

Slightly more troubling is the appointment of yet another Scot as Transport Secretary, given that transport is not only an entirely devolved matter but that, under the Barnett Formula, the Scottish transport budget is way in excess of that of England's in terms of spending-per-head.

More reaction at the CEP newsblog.

Ron tires of badger-watching

I see from the Western Mail that my old mucker Ron Davies is considering another political comeback.

Seriously, I hope he makes it. Politics needs its colourful characters, and of all the people forced to resign from Blair's Government, he was possibly the most harshly treated.

The Little Red Book

In the unlikely event that there is anyone who reads my blog who doesn't also read Iain Dale and/or Guido Fawkes, here's a plug for their forthcoming Little Red Book of New Labour Sleaze to which I and other bloggers have contributed. You can order a copy online, via Politicos, natch, by clicking here.

So does going bald make you want to go with rent boys?

As a baldy, I was both amused and relieved to read this story by Brendan Carlin in today's Daily Telegraph on the latest Mark Oaten revelations.

“Balding men generally will hardly welcome the link between hair loss and having an affair with a rent boy,” he writes.

I can of course personally attest to the truth of this observation - but what I am sure we're all dying to know is what Nick Robinson thinks.

After the long night, now for the night of the long knives....

It's 6am and I've just finished covering the local elections for our 30 this is websites - a very different kettle of fish from covering for one newspaper as I've done for most of my career.

Anyway, it's clear this has been a terrible night for Labour and that Blair is going to have to do something mighty big in today's reshuffle to knock this off the front pages.

The Labour Party - and even some of its traditional supporters in the media - is finally realising what some of us knew even before the last election - that Blair is now an electoral liability.

He got away with it in 2005 for the simple reason that he was up against Howard. But now the Tories have got themselves a half-decent leader, there's nowhere left to hide.

Surely the most chilling spectacle of the night for Blair will have been seeing Nick Brown, the grim-faced assassin from the North-East whom he sacked three years ago, telling David Dimbleby that something had to be done to halt the drift.

Asked whether there was anything Blair could actually do, Brown replied: "Well, he'll have to try." And if he fails, we all know what "Newky" will do next.

So what of the reshuffle? Well, there has been so much speculation about this over the past couple of days that I sense that literally anything could happen, and I'm not about to make an idiot of myself by making predictions that could look silly by the end of the day.

I reckon there'll be at least one big surprise, but whether it will be enough to save Blair is surely very much in doubt.