Are elections always won from the centre ground?

Lord Saatchi says not, saying that Margaret Thatcher disproved the "dinner party myth." Iain Dale disagrees, arguing that the 1979 manifesto on which Thatcher won was much more centrist than is generally supposed.

So who's right? Well, I'm going to sit on the fence for the time being and say I have some sympathy with both points of view.

In his pamphlet published yesterday, In Praise of Ideology, Lord Saatchi said people were losing faith in politics because there was so little difference between the parties. In the light of the declining turnout at recent elections, it is very hard to argue against this standpoint.

"The pragmatism of the centre ground turns politics into a commodity market - because pragmatism leads to opportunism, which leads to cynicism. People can spot a left/right 'positioning exercise' a mile off. The motive for these moves is too transparent. Voters always suspected that politicians would 'say anything to get elected'. Now they know it's true."

On the other hand, I do agree with Dale when he says that David Cameron needs to continue his move towards the centre ground, because of the particular electoral circustamces in which his party now finds itself.

"You cannot win purely with the support of your own core voters. Instead you have to appeal to a wider body. This is the lesson of the last 10 years in which the Conservatives have languished in opposition. Continually banging on about the same old message in the same old way is not going to appeal to those who find themselves disillusioned with politics and politicians."

Historically speaking, of course, the truth about elections is much more complex. While it is true to say that elections are not won from extreme positions, as Labour found in 1983 and the Tories in 2001, that is not the same as saying that the party with the most "centrist" position invariably wins.

If it was, I suspect the Liberals and their successor parties might have had a bit more success than they have had over the past 100 years!

My own view is that a political leader needs both the Saatchi approach and the Dale approach if you like, a clear ideology tempered by a willingness to compromise when necessary.

The lack of an ideological compass won't necessarily prevent David Cameron from becoming Prime Minister, as Tony Blair discovered. But it will prevent him from becoming a good one.

The Mars Hill Interview

Paul Burgin's Mars Hill is one of the most thoughtful Labour blogs around and one that I visit most days. So I am delighted to have become the latest blogger to take part in his long-running "Twenty Questions to a Fellow Blogger" series - I think I'm No 21!

Alongside questions about favourite blogs, Bond movies, books, songs and characters from history, Paul also quizzes me on my political views and what I think I learned from my time in the Lobby. You can read the full interview HERE.

My Ashes Prediction

As even a visitor from the Planet Xandon would know by now, The Ashes get under way tomorrow, with Australia seeking to wrest back the urn so dramatically won by England two summers ago.

I don't want to be accused of being negative, but I don't have a particularly good feeling about it if the truth be told. When we won in 2005, we had the benefit of Michael Vaughan's brilliant captaincy, Marcus Trescothick's 430 runs, and Simon Jones's lethal reverse swing. Yet all will be absent when the contest gets under way tomorrow.

At the same time, the Aussies, having had a few poor sessions at key moments in the last series, appear to have regrouped and their ageing yet wonderfully talented team now seems fired up for what will surely be its last hurrah.

So on balance, I think it's Australia to win, probably by 3-1, with one Test drawn. But that said, my cricketing predictions should probably be given even less credence than my political ones!

BlogGems

An occasional series dedicated to bringing the best comments from the blogosphere to a slightly wider audience.
No 2.

"The enemy is not to be found among the Christians, however outlandish their beliefs may appear to the world. The enemy is among those who seek to deny those liberties for which some of us died. Open your eyes."

Cranmer, commenting on a current post on Guido Fawkes.

Time to let the Big Clunking Fist do its work

The Observer's Andrew Rawnsley speculated at the weekend that the image of a "Big Clunking Fist" would not necessarily be helpful to Gordon Brown and Labour. I had thought about doing this line too, but having thought about it I decided I disagreed with it.

Labour has been pussy-footing around with the Boy Cameron for nearly a year now - and a Big Clunking Fist is exactly what is needed. Here's what I ending up saying in my Saturday column and Podcast.

"Mr Blair’s attempts to demonstrate that there is life in New Labour yet have again been overshadowed by further developments in the cash-for-peerages affair. Thursday’s confirmation that “significant and valuable material” had been uncovered makes it all-but-certain that the matter will be referred to the Crown Prosecution Service, meaning it cannot now possibly be resolved before Mr Blair leaves office.

"In the light of that, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that it would be in the Labour Party’s best interests if the change of leadership was to happen sooner rather than later. It’s time to let that big clunking fist – whoever it belongs to – get stuck in."

New Labour, New Media

Some fairly heavy shit on Guido's blog at the moment about the impact of new media on the relationship between politicians and the public, following some rather unwise comments by departing No 10 policy wonk Matthew Taylor.

Blaming the internet for fuelling the "crisis" between politicians and voters, Taylor said: "The big breakthrough, in terms of politics, on the web in the last few years [is] basically blogs which are, generally speaking, hostile and basically see their job as every day exposing how venal, stupid, and mendacious politicians are."

As usual, New Labour is trying to have it both ways. After all, as my old lobby colleague Nick Assinder has noted, the Government is currently playing about with new media like an excited child who has just discovered computer games.

Environment Sec David Miliband has his famous taxpayer-funded blog, the Downing Street website has its new e-petitions functionality and Mr Blair this week staged an online interview, mediated by the politically-balanced pairing of old leftie Will Hutton and youngish Tory Anne McElvoy.

I don't blame Downing St for trying to harness the power of Teh Interwebs, but surely they should not complain when the public, and specifically political bloggers, do the same.

Mind you, up against twisted genii like Tim Ireland who are prepared to do this sort of thing, you can maybe see why they are so afraid.