Blair has done the sensible thing and, instead of seeking to provoke Brown beyond endurance, has acknowledged (a) that he probably will end up stepping down well before the end of his third term, (b) that he will organise an orderly handover, and (c) that Gordon remains, publicly at least, his chosen successor.
Inevitably this has been interpreted as meaning he will go next year, but as I have said before, I always thought that was the likelist scenario.
As Nick Robinson has noted, Brown has very little alternative but to go along with this, unless he wants to inherit a fatally divided party.
Of all the punditry that has appeared on this over recent days, quite the most ludicrous came from Robert Harris, who argued that Blair should in fact sack Brown unless he publicly commits to allow him to serve a full third term.
And what do you suppose Gordon would then do next, Mr Harris? Say: "Okay Tony, you win," and slink off to the backbenches to make the occasional speech on neo-endogenous growth theory? No, he would be straight down the Strangers' Bar with Nicky Brown and Dougie Henderson to organise a leadership contest.
By contrast, the most sensible piece of advice was yesterday's Guardian leader pointing out the huge responsibilities now lying on both men to avoid a civil war.
I think they may have just about managed it - for now.
Blair-must-go watch update:
Andrew Smith
Frank Dobson
Ashok Kumar
Glenda Jackson
The Guardian
The Daily Telegraph
The Economist
The New Statesman
Polly Toynbee
Matthew Parris
Jonathan Freedland
Stephen Pollard
Paul Linford
Bloggerheads
BBC Newsnight poll
Times Populus poll
Neal Lawson/Compass
Nick Raynsford
Martin Salter
The Times
Rhodri Morgan
Robert Harris
Janet Anderson
2 comments:
I can't see Blair wanting to step down before his 10th anniversary. But whether Labour will wait that long remains to be seen.
You have to admit though Paul, that Harris's article did make quite a convincing case for Brown's disloyalty, considering he would have been easily beaten by Blair had he stood against him. In retrospect TB must hugely regret not having resolved the problem of who was really the party's choice. By avoiding the problem then he condemned himself to carry it like an albatross for the next 12 years and finally to be impaled upon it.
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