With Tony Blair's premiership now holed below the waterline, I'm going to be keeping a fairly regular watch on this blog on what the MainStream Media and also other blogs are saying about his survival prospects.
First up is the Economist which says in an editorial that the Prime Minister would be better-off leaving office soon rather than getting into an increasingly destructive scrap with his party over public service reforms.
In today's Guardian, Polly Toynbee argues that the loans-for-peerages affair and Wednesday's schools rebellion should be seen as a warning to Mr Blair to make peace with his party and retire with good grace, although interestingly the paper itself doesn't yet go that far.
Meanwhile king of the tipsters Guido Fawkes is putting his money on an autumn departure, around the time of the Labour Conference, and after his brilliant call on the Lib Dem leadership election, who are we to disagree?
For my part, I first called on Mr Blair to go in the wake of the David Kelly affair in 2003 and he rather disappointingly failed to heed my advice, but I'm going to have another go in my columns and podcast this weekend which as ever will be available here on Monday.
As to what I actually think will happen...while I've always maintained that he will go on or around the 10th anniversary of his coming to power, in May 2007, I am seriously beginning to wonder whether he can hang around till then without doing very serious damage to the Labour Party.
Friday, March 17, 2006
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Clarke flies a kite for coalition
The next General Election is still at least three years away...but already Ken Clarke is talking up the prospect of a Tory-Lib Dem coalition in an interview in today's Spectator - helpfully reproduced online at e-politix as the Speccie insists on charging us for visiting its web pages.
The idea is not so fanciful as many will instinctively suppose. As the excellent Electoral Calculus website shows, the Tories will have to be a long way in front of Labour to get an overall majority at the next election, and the best estimate at the moment is that they are likely to fall short of that.
But the issue Clarke is specifically addressing in this interview is the political dynamics which such a result will create in terms of who teams up with who in a hung Parliament. While I have absolutely no doubt that Sir Menzies Campbell would prefer to join a coalition led by Gordon Brown, that may not be an option if the Tories both win the popular vote and comprise the largest single party.
In those circumstances, as I discussed in a recent column entitled Which Way Will Ming Swing?, it would be politically impossible for the Lib Dems to sustain a defeated Labour Government in power, and Sir Ming would have little option but to get into bed with Mr Cameron.
In return, Mr Cameron would of course have to promise electoral reform, but by then he will hopefully have realised how unfair the current system is to the Tories and how they might actually benefit by the introduction of proportional representation.
Mr Cameron will no doubt deny it till he's blue in the face - but I reckon Old Ken might just be flying this kite with his leader's tacit approval.
The idea is not so fanciful as many will instinctively suppose. As the excellent Electoral Calculus website shows, the Tories will have to be a long way in front of Labour to get an overall majority at the next election, and the best estimate at the moment is that they are likely to fall short of that.
But the issue Clarke is specifically addressing in this interview is the political dynamics which such a result will create in terms of who teams up with who in a hung Parliament. While I have absolutely no doubt that Sir Menzies Campbell would prefer to join a coalition led by Gordon Brown, that may not be an option if the Tories both win the popular vote and comprise the largest single party.
In those circumstances, as I discussed in a recent column entitled Which Way Will Ming Swing?, it would be politically impossible for the Lib Dems to sustain a defeated Labour Government in power, and Sir Ming would have little option but to get into bed with Mr Cameron.
In return, Mr Cameron would of course have to promise electoral reform, but by then he will hopefully have realised how unfair the current system is to the Tories and how they might actually benefit by the introduction of proportional representation.
Mr Cameron will no doubt deny it till he's blue in the face - but I reckon Old Ken might just be flying this kite with his leader's tacit approval.
Minister "pissed at Despatch Box"
Labour Watch has an excellent story that a senior Government minister was having difficulties remaining upright at the Despatch Box during a late-night adjournment debate earlier this week.
The minister in question is an unctuous little toad who regularly used to frequent the Press Gallery Bar of an evening in an attempt to pick up titbits about what people might be writing about the next day, so maybe he got into bad habits.
I don't know why more national newspaper diarists have not picked up on this story, but in my view it's well worth a read!
The minister in question is an unctuous little toad who regularly used to frequent the Press Gallery Bar of an evening in an attempt to pick up titbits about what people might be writing about the next day, so maybe he got into bad habits.
I don't know why more national newspaper diarists have not picked up on this story, but in my view it's well worth a read!
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Two reasons why Blair is finished
1. A Prime Minister with a majority of 66 is forced to rely on Conservative votes to get through a reform which he claimed would form a vital part of his legacy.
2. Labour's Treasurer is forced to launch an investigation into his own party's finances over accusations that loans were exchanged for peerages.
The Government has now lost all political and moral authority. Tony Blair came to power in 1997 on a tide of so-called Tory "sleaze" but it is now clear that his administration is the sleaziest since the original cash-for-honours scandal involving Lloyd George.
When Labour donors become so brazened that they stand up and demand to know "where's my peerage?" as Chai Patel did, it is clear we are living in a corrupt and decadent political culture.
Since 1997 Blair has made reform of the public services his number one priority - but in his increasing obsession with "marketisation" he has completely failed to carry his party with him.
New Labour's spin machine and its fawning acolytes in the national media will doubtless tell us otherwise tomorrow - but this Prime Minister is now holed below the waterline.
2. Labour's Treasurer is forced to launch an investigation into his own party's finances over accusations that loans were exchanged for peerages.
The Government has now lost all political and moral authority. Tony Blair came to power in 1997 on a tide of so-called Tory "sleaze" but it is now clear that his administration is the sleaziest since the original cash-for-honours scandal involving Lloyd George.
When Labour donors become so brazened that they stand up and demand to know "where's my peerage?" as Chai Patel did, it is clear we are living in a corrupt and decadent political culture.
Since 1997 Blair has made reform of the public services his number one priority - but in his increasing obsession with "marketisation" he has completely failed to carry his party with him.
New Labour's spin machine and its fawning acolytes in the national media will doubtless tell us otherwise tomorrow - but this Prime Minister is now holed below the waterline.
Andy Robinson = Harold Macmillan
Analogies between politics and rugby are relatively rare, but England coach Andy Robinson's decision to axe six players for Saturday's match against Ireland calls to mind Harold Macmillan’s Night of the Long Knives in 1962 when he sacked a third of his Cabinet – “the wrong third” according to Tory wits of the time.
Josh Lewsey appears to be taking the rap for the collision with Jamie Noon which led to the first French try. Yet Lewsey is a proven world class performer while Noon is merely a good premiership player who has been the persistent beneficiary of Robinson’s absurd favouritism.
Bringing in Stuart Abbott at inside centre is a start, but it would have been much better to have seen the hugely talented Ollie Smith alongside him.
Harry Ellis has been tried and failed at scrum-half – why isn’t Shaun Perry being given a chance? And why is that lolloping great tub of lard Ben Cohen still even in the squad?
Upfront, the return of Andrew Sheridan is a belated admission that it was wrong to drop him against France, but the back row still looks totally unbalanced. Moody should move to 6 with Sanderson or Lund at 7, while Chris Jones would be a much more useful back-row bench option than Dallaglio.
Macmillan’s purge failed to save his job in the longer-run, and this won’t save Robinson’s either. As someone said on Planet Rugby: "I've seen better selections left at the bottom of a Cadbury's Roses tin on Boxing Day."
Josh Lewsey appears to be taking the rap for the collision with Jamie Noon which led to the first French try. Yet Lewsey is a proven world class performer while Noon is merely a good premiership player who has been the persistent beneficiary of Robinson’s absurd favouritism.
Bringing in Stuart Abbott at inside centre is a start, but it would have been much better to have seen the hugely talented Ollie Smith alongside him.
Harry Ellis has been tried and failed at scrum-half – why isn’t Shaun Perry being given a chance? And why is that lolloping great tub of lard Ben Cohen still even in the squad?
Upfront, the return of Andrew Sheridan is a belated admission that it was wrong to drop him against France, but the back row still looks totally unbalanced. Moody should move to 6 with Sanderson or Lund at 7, while Chris Jones would be a much more useful back-row bench option than Dallaglio.
Macmillan’s purge failed to save his job in the longer-run, and this won’t save Robinson’s either. As someone said on Planet Rugby: "I've seen better selections left at the bottom of a Cadbury's Roses tin on Boxing Day."
English Parliament: Riddell joins the fray
Following on from Lord Hattersley's endorsement, Times columnist Peter Riddell has joined the debate over an English Parliament with this article in today's paper.
Although he is hostile to the idea, I think this is only going to prove my point that the English Question has now crossed over into the mainstream of political debate.
As well as being an excellent writer, Riddell is one of the real high-priests of the Whitehall political establishment and if this isssue is on his radar, then we can be sure that it is firmly on the establishment's radar.
As someone said on another blog: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Although he is hostile to the idea, I think this is only going to prove my point that the English Question has now crossed over into the mainstream of political debate.
As well as being an excellent writer, Riddell is one of the real high-priests of the Whitehall political establishment and if this isssue is on his radar, then we can be sure that it is firmly on the establishment's radar.
As someone said on another blog: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
Monday, March 13, 2006
Robinson must go!
I have previously warned all you politicos out there that this blog might occasionally turn its attentions to other matters - notably the oval-ball game - and in the wake of England's 31-6 humiliation at the hands of France yesterday, this is such an occasion.
Frankly, today I couldn't care less whether Tessa Jowell, Tony Blair or even Ian Blair go - as long as England rugby coach Andy Robinson does!
I've long had it in for Robinson as a result of his disgraceful treatment of the Lions and Leicester Tigers centre Ollie Smith, potentially the finest young talent in the English game yet repeatedly ignored for international selection.
Yet Robinson refuses to learn from his mistakes and persists in bone-headed decisions like playing the blindside flanker Lewis Moody out of position on the openside, and the tactically limited Mike Tindall as an inside centre.
Now it is all finally unravelling, and the shortcomings of a coach whose limitations have long been obvious to me are becoming clear for all to see.
There are plenty of discussion threads on this subject on the Planet Rugby site - this one entitled Where to start? is probably one of the best.
Frankly, today I couldn't care less whether Tessa Jowell, Tony Blair or even Ian Blair go - as long as England rugby coach Andy Robinson does!
I've long had it in for Robinson as a result of his disgraceful treatment of the Lions and Leicester Tigers centre Ollie Smith, potentially the finest young talent in the English game yet repeatedly ignored for international selection.
Yet Robinson refuses to learn from his mistakes and persists in bone-headed decisions like playing the blindside flanker Lewis Moody out of position on the openside, and the tactically limited Mike Tindall as an inside centre.
Now it is all finally unravelling, and the shortcomings of a coach whose limitations have long been obvious to me are becoming clear for all to see.
There are plenty of discussion threads on this subject on the Planet Rugby site - this one entitled Where to start? is probably one of the best.
Tessa to stay, Blair to go?
I have by and large refrained from commenting on the Tessa Jowell thus far, mainly because no-one has managed to explain to me what exactly it is that she is supposed to have done wrong.
I expand on this point in this week's Column and accompanying Podcast but I conclude with a look forward to what might happen to Tony Blair following this week's education vote.
"Thankfully for Ms Jowell, it is Mr Blair’s own future to which the attentions of the media will surely now turn. Tory leader David Cameron’s carefully-laid “bear hug” strategy of trying to kill the Prime Minister with kindness by detaching him from his own MPs is now very close to success.
"As I have written before, if Mr Blair is forced to rely on Tory votes to get those reforms through next Wednesday, he will be finished as Labour leader. Very soon now, we could well be writing a far bigger political obituary than that of the Culture Secretary."
I expand on this point in this week's Column and accompanying Podcast but I conclude with a look forward to what might happen to Tony Blair following this week's education vote.
"Thankfully for Ms Jowell, it is Mr Blair’s own future to which the attentions of the media will surely now turn. Tory leader David Cameron’s carefully-laid “bear hug” strategy of trying to kill the Prime Minister with kindness by detaching him from his own MPs is now very close to success.
"As I have written before, if Mr Blair is forced to rely on Tory votes to get those reforms through next Wednesday, he will be finished as Labour leader. Very soon now, we could well be writing a far bigger political obituary than that of the Culture Secretary."
Friday, March 10, 2006
Falconer's no to English Parliament is the beginning, not the end
Constitutional Affairs Secretary and former Tony Blair flatmate Lord Falconer has today delivered an uncompromising statement on the Government's attitude to an English Parliament.
He said an English Parliament would control the greater part of the economic power of the UK, leaving a federal UK parliament "hanging on its coat-tails."
"To the idea of an English parliament we say not today, not tomorrow, not in any kind of future we can see now. Devolution strengthens the union of the UK. English votes for English issues would wreck it."
The full story can be read here.
So where does this leave us? Does this mean that those of us who support an English Parliament and a federal UK should pack up and go home? Absolutely not.
To start with, Falconer is toast when Brown takes over. He is only in the Cabinet because he's an old legal chum of Blair's, and the PM is so isolated in the Labour Party he needs to surround himself with cronies. Furthermore Brown has already said he will have a wide-ranging look at the constitution when he takes over.
But the real significance of today's comments is that Falconer felt it necessary to make them at all. It means the idea of an English Parliament is, finally, on the mainstream political agenda.
What this does is create a great opportunity for the Campaign for the English Parliament to get its message across and expose the contradictions in the Government's argument.
For example, the BBC is running a Have Your Say on the issue which is now running to eight pages of coments, together with a poll which currently shows around 63pc in favour of an English Parliament and 37pc against.
Here's an excerpt from what I wrote on that thread:
"If Falconer's argument against an English Parliament is that it will ultimately lead to a "federal Britain," then I would have to ask him where he's been for the past nine years. The actions of his own Government in creating devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales and the attempts to create a similar structure in Northern Ireland have - quite rightly in my view - taken us three quarters of the way towards a federal UK already. An English Parliament is simply the missing piece in the jigsaw."
Plenty more debate on this at Iain Dale and the CEP newsblog with an eloquent summing up from Little Man in a Toque.
March 14 update: Roy Hattersley gives his backing to an English Parliament with this piece in the Guardian.
He said an English Parliament would control the greater part of the economic power of the UK, leaving a federal UK parliament "hanging on its coat-tails."
"To the idea of an English parliament we say not today, not tomorrow, not in any kind of future we can see now. Devolution strengthens the union of the UK. English votes for English issues would wreck it."
The full story can be read here.
So where does this leave us? Does this mean that those of us who support an English Parliament and a federal UK should pack up and go home? Absolutely not.
To start with, Falconer is toast when Brown takes over. He is only in the Cabinet because he's an old legal chum of Blair's, and the PM is so isolated in the Labour Party he needs to surround himself with cronies. Furthermore Brown has already said he will have a wide-ranging look at the constitution when he takes over.
But the real significance of today's comments is that Falconer felt it necessary to make them at all. It means the idea of an English Parliament is, finally, on the mainstream political agenda.
What this does is create a great opportunity for the Campaign for the English Parliament to get its message across and expose the contradictions in the Government's argument.
For example, the BBC is running a Have Your Say on the issue which is now running to eight pages of coments, together with a poll which currently shows around 63pc in favour of an English Parliament and 37pc against.
Here's an excerpt from what I wrote on that thread:
"If Falconer's argument against an English Parliament is that it will ultimately lead to a "federal Britain," then I would have to ask him where he's been for the past nine years. The actions of his own Government in creating devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales and the attempts to create a similar structure in Northern Ireland have - quite rightly in my view - taken us three quarters of the way towards a federal UK already. An English Parliament is simply the missing piece in the jigsaw."
Plenty more debate on this at Iain Dale and the CEP newsblog with an eloquent summing up from Little Man in a Toque.
March 14 update: Roy Hattersley gives his backing to an English Parliament with this piece in the Guardian.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Get on with it Blair - II
A couple of weeks ago I urged Tony Blair to get on with his long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle, questioning his decision to announce the creation of a Minister for Social Exclusion while failing to announce who was to fill the post.
It's nice to know that the Labour-supporting Times newspaper agrees with me.
It's nice to know that the Labour-supporting Times newspaper agrees with me.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Ming's top team: a preliminary verdict
Ming Campbell has now completed the long-drawn out Lib Dem frontbench reshuffle and the full list can be viewed here.
I don't think there are any great surprises. We knew he would reward Clegg for not standing by giving him a more important position than Huhne, who did stand, and this has duly happened.
In my view Huhne should have got the Foreign Affairs spokesmanship but that would have irritated the Clegg camp and in any case Michael Moore appears to be joined at the hip to Ming.
Sarah Teather has been getting the headlines today for her promotion to Education spokeswoman, but I am not alone in wondering whether she really cuts the mustard.
In terms of the minor placings, interesting to see old Paddy Ashdown ally Nick Harvey back in the top team at Defence, and Lembit keeping his job as Wales and Northern Ireland spokesman despite making an arse of himself in the leadership campaign.
Out go Andrew George, Sandra Gidley and Tom Brake who are no great losses but I'm puzzled as to what poor old John Thurso has done wrong apart from wear a silly Lord Lucan-style moustache.
One potentially really significant appointment is that of Simon Hughes to the constitutional affairs brief.
Some of my colleagues in the Campaign for an English Parliament believe that Hughes is a secret supporter of their cause, so it will be very interesting to see if this now forms of part of Lib Dem policy development in this area.
I don't think there are any great surprises. We knew he would reward Clegg for not standing by giving him a more important position than Huhne, who did stand, and this has duly happened.
In my view Huhne should have got the Foreign Affairs spokesmanship but that would have irritated the Clegg camp and in any case Michael Moore appears to be joined at the hip to Ming.
Sarah Teather has been getting the headlines today for her promotion to Education spokeswoman, but I am not alone in wondering whether she really cuts the mustard.
In terms of the minor placings, interesting to see old Paddy Ashdown ally Nick Harvey back in the top team at Defence, and Lembit keeping his job as Wales and Northern Ireland spokesman despite making an arse of himself in the leadership campaign.
Out go Andrew George, Sandra Gidley and Tom Brake who are no great losses but I'm puzzled as to what poor old John Thurso has done wrong apart from wear a silly Lord Lucan-style moustache.
One potentially really significant appointment is that of Simon Hughes to the constitutional affairs brief.
Some of my colleagues in the Campaign for an English Parliament believe that Hughes is a secret supporter of their cause, so it will be very interesting to see if this now forms of part of Lib Dem policy development in this area.
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Lib Dem succession race gets under way
This is a such a great idea I wish I'd thought of it first...but a great new blog has been launched dedicated to the battle to succeed Sir Menzies Campbell as Leader of the Liberal Democrats.
Okay, so it's meant to be a bit of fun, but there's a serious point here in view of the dynamics behind Sir Ming's election.
The plain facts are that Ming Campbell owes his election to the time-honoured principle of "young cardinals elect old popes."
The young turks who backed Campbell's leadership bid - the Nick Cleggs, Ed Daveys, David Laws and Sarah Teathers of this world - were not doing so because he is their ideological soulmate, but because when he stands down after the next election it will give them an early crack at the leadership.
The authors of "Ming's Dynasty..." whoever they are, are therefore correct to surmise that the race is already under way.
Indeed, the ongoing Shadow Cabinet reshuffle is part and parcel of this process, with Clegg given the chance to put himself in the driving seat as Home Affairs spokesman with his most prominent rival, Chris Huhne, given a more junior role at Environment.
Also in the running is new Treasury spokesman Julia Goldsworthy, who is likely to prove a more durable female contender in the longer-run than Ms Rabbit-caught-in-headlights Teather.
Lets hope there's still a party left for them to lead once the Minger has finished with it.
March 9 Update: Here's some further justification of why this might conceivably be a valid subject for discussion. William Hill, as ever, supply the odds.
Hat tip: Guido Fawkes.
Okay, so it's meant to be a bit of fun, but there's a serious point here in view of the dynamics behind Sir Ming's election.
The plain facts are that Ming Campbell owes his election to the time-honoured principle of "young cardinals elect old popes."
The young turks who backed Campbell's leadership bid - the Nick Cleggs, Ed Daveys, David Laws and Sarah Teathers of this world - were not doing so because he is their ideological soulmate, but because when he stands down after the next election it will give them an early crack at the leadership.
The authors of "Ming's Dynasty..." whoever they are, are therefore correct to surmise that the race is already under way.
Indeed, the ongoing Shadow Cabinet reshuffle is part and parcel of this process, with Clegg given the chance to put himself in the driving seat as Home Affairs spokesman with his most prominent rival, Chris Huhne, given a more junior role at Environment.
Also in the running is new Treasury spokesman Julia Goldsworthy, who is likely to prove a more durable female contender in the longer-run than Ms Rabbit-caught-in-headlights Teather.
Lets hope there's still a party left for them to lead once the Minger has finished with it.
March 9 Update: Here's some further justification of why this might conceivably be a valid subject for discussion. William Hill, as ever, supply the odds.
Hat tip: Guido Fawkes.
Introducing the Links Dump
Teh Interweb is truly full of wonders and there's not enough hours in the day to mention them all on this blog, but there is quite a bit of stuff out there that I think is worthy of recognition in some small way. So in a return to the original spirit of web-logging, I'm introducing a new weekly links dump featuring stories and links that caught my eye.
Here then, in no particular order, is my first listing.
* Old lobby mucker Nick Assinder laments the sad demise of Annie's Bar.
* Recess Monkey investigates the (very fit) TV producer currently making a film about the sex lives of MP's staff.
* Tom Ewing celebrates suburban pop, with namechecks for old faves Prefab Sprout, the Sundays and Frazier Chorus.
* Ace rapper John Barnes announces his England comeback.
* Guido Fawkes calls the Lib Dem leadership election, 48 hours before the result is officially announced.
* Chris Mullin muses over whether A Very British Coup could ever happen these days.
* The this is network launches its latest World Cup Quiz on the Boys from Brazil.
* Renegade former diplomat Craig Murray fulminates on the Tessa Jowell affair, with a reply from yours truly.
* Andrew Roth remembers Stefan Terlezki, author of one of the great political upsets.
* Tee-mart launches a new line of Andrew Marr T-shirts - I kid you not!
That's all for now folks. Enjoy!
Here then, in no particular order, is my first listing.
* Old lobby mucker Nick Assinder laments the sad demise of Annie's Bar.
* Recess Monkey investigates the (very fit) TV producer currently making a film about the sex lives of MP's staff.
* Tom Ewing celebrates suburban pop, with namechecks for old faves Prefab Sprout, the Sundays and Frazier Chorus.
* Ace rapper John Barnes announces his England comeback.
* Guido Fawkes calls the Lib Dem leadership election, 48 hours before the result is officially announced.
* Chris Mullin muses over whether A Very British Coup could ever happen these days.
* The this is network launches its latest World Cup Quiz on the Boys from Brazil.
* Renegade former diplomat Craig Murray fulminates on the Tessa Jowell affair, with a reply from yours truly.
* Andrew Roth remembers Stefan Terlezki, author of one of the great political upsets.
* Tee-mart launches a new line of Andrew Marr T-shirts - I kid you not!
That's all for now folks. Enjoy!
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