Thursday, June 22, 2006

Labour leadership contest is now a certainty

The BBC leads most of its bulletins this morning with the story that Gordon Brown has committed himself to a replacement for Trident if he becomes Prime Minister.

Some appear to be wondering why this is a story at all. Surely it's just a senior Government minister making clear that he supports existing Government policy?

Well, I reckon they're missing the point. The reason this is a story is because there are quite a few people out there in the Labour Party who thought, perhaps naively, that Prime Minister Brown might turn out to take a different view on the replacement of Trident and other nuclear-related matters.

What I think is really interesting about this story - and no-one really seems to have picked up on this yet - is that it makes a Labour leadership challenge from the anti-nuclear, Meacherite left an absolute racing certainty.

Now here's the rub. Until now, it has been generally assumed that Mr Brown wanted an uncontested election, or an "orderly transition" as it is usually described.

I reckon that's wrong, and that the Chancellor has decided he would benefit much more from a contest in which he can define himself as the natural inheritor of the New Labour mantle in opposition to a challenge from the old left.

By making clear his views on Trident at this early stage, he has given the left the perfect cause on which to mount such a challenge - perfect both in the sense that their feelings about nuclear weapons make it inevitable that they will take it up, and in the sense that it portrays Brown as in touch with mainstream opinion in the country.

All Gordon has to worry about now is whether the Blairites will be convinced by this display of loyalty, or whether they will, in the end, decide to run Alan Johnson against him.

Update 1: Clare Short has now made my point for me, by saying she will no longer support Gordon Brown for the leadership, and that there should be a contest.

Update 2: My most recent column looking at the Labour leadership issue, written earlier this week, is published today in the North West Enquirer.

Update 3: Ben Rooney has included this post in today's Guardian round-up of what's on the web - the second time this blog has been featured!

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Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Barnett back on national agenda?

I seem to have got a bit of a reputation over the years for having an interest in the Barnett Formula, the obscure Treasury funding rules which currently award Scotland £1,473 more per head in public spending than England.

So it's always nice to see other journalists occasionally taking up the issue, such as Alice Thomson in today's Telegraph.

"It must be obvious to the Chancellor that this handout is increasingly unacceptable to the English. It has allowed the Scottish Parliament to bring in free care for the elderly, free nursery places and free tuition at universities, as well as enabling them to build a £431 million parliament building. If Mr Brown wants to put a stop to claims that a Scottish MP cannot be prime minister, this is the way to do it," she writes.

Thomson is known for her closeness to Tory leader David Cameron, so it will be interesting to see what, if anything, the Tory frontbench do about this. For the past two elections, the Lib Dems have been the only party committed to scrapping this monstrously unfair system.

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Progressive Disenfranchisement

I've had a fair amount to say recently about political cross-dressing, mainly in relation to David Cameron's attempts to re-occupy the centre ground and, in some circumstances, to triangulate his policies to the left of Tony Blair.

The one aspect of this I've not touched on so far, however, is the attempt by the Liberal Democrats to steal the Tories clothes by posing as tax cutters and abandoning their credentials as a progressive party by ditching the 50p top rate of tax.

Let me be honest about my own position. I believe in redistributive taxation, and furthermore I believe that people like me who are on decent incomes ought, in general, to pay a bigger proportion of those incomes in tax. "From each according to his means, to each according to his need" seems to me a basic ethical Christian principle that should underpin the way we do politics.

But no mainstream party is now advocating this sort of taxation system in any real sense. Even the Lib Dems, petrified that the rise of Cameron will deprive them of votes in Middle England, cannot any longer bring themselves to argue that people earning £100,000 a year or more should pay slightly more tax than those of us earning £30,000.

What this means is that whole swathes of opinion on the progressive left of politics are steadily becoming more and more disenfranchised, accelerating the process that begun under New Labour as a result of Blair's abandonment of anything resembling democratic socialism.

It's still not too late for Labour to do something about that before the next election - see post below - but what about the Lib Dems?

Well, sadly, I have seen nothing over the past three months to make me think I was in any way mistaken in my initial assessment of Charles Kennedy's overthrow as party leader and his replacement by Ming Campbell: that it was a mistake the party would come to regret.

From being the nice party in British politics, the one which actually seemed to stand for something rather than bending with every wind, they have now ditched both their leader and their most distinctive policy in what I believe will prove a vain attempt to counter the Cameron threat.

We read this weekend that Mr Kennedy himself regrets not standing in the leadership election which he triggered. I'll bet he does - with his popularity among the party grassroots, he would have won hands down.

Yet as Kennedy surmised and as a recent post on Jonathan Calder's Liberal England blog confirms, strenuous efforts were made by senior party figures such as Lord Steel to ensure an uncontested coronation for Ming Campbell.

Although Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes did their best to prevent that outcome, the end result of all these stupid machinations was that the party ended up with a leader far less popular than the one they had - and no more effective in the House of Commons for all that - and with policies far less distinctive or attractive than the ones on which they fought the last two elections.

Is it any wonder that some of us are considering voting Tory?

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In the name of Gord, go

The pressure on Tony Blair is cranking up again following last weekend's Compass conference and continuing dismal opinion poll ratings for Labour.

This morning's Guardian leader renews the paper's call for the Prime Minister to stand down this year in the interests of the party, and even fellow blogger Skipper, who has hitherto been notable for giving the PM the benefit of the doubt, has now joined the growing chorus.

It seems to me so self-evident that Blair's continuance in office is badly damaging his party that only someone who was completely self-deluded could fail to see the truth of it. That would be our Prime Minister, then.

As the Guardian piece puts it: "Mr Blair's continuation at the top of his party increasingly appears like an act of vanity."

Blair-must-go watch update:

  • This is the current list of Labour MPs, newspapers, political commentators, bloggers and pollsters who have publicly called on Tony Blair to stand down this year.

    Andrew Smith
    Frank Dobson
    Michael Meacher
    Ashok Kumar
    Glenda Jackson
    The Guardian
    The Daily Telegraph
    The Economist
    The New Statesman
    Tribune
    Polly Toynbee
    Matthew Parris
    Jonathan Freedland
    Stephen Pollard
    Paul Linford
    Bloggerheads
    Skipper
    BBC Newsnight poll
    Times Populus poll
    YouGov poll of Labour members

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  • Monday, June 19, 2006

    Top blogging 2 (and some MainStream Media too!)

    Does that rhyme? Anyway, here's the second of my occasional round-ups of things I appreciated on the blogosphere and beyond over the past week or so.

    Stalin's Gran reveals John Prescott's taste in Indian-Italian cuisine...Tim Ireland and Justin McKeating leave some unwanted comments on Alastair Campbell's World Cup blog...Femme de Resistance gives her inimitable take on David Cameron's "Happiness Agenda,"....Iain Dale explains why the right rules the blogosphere...Madeleine Bunting takes her leave of the Grauniad...Stephen Pollard does his best to puncture the absurd media hype surrounding Nick Clegg...The Press Gazette reveals that most senior journalists are public school educated toffs... and A Dutchman comes up with what is surely the daftest blog of 2006 so far!

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    Friday, June 16, 2006

    Labour contest would be "meaningless" - Ken

    A few weeks back, a propos of Ken Livingstone's comments about the Barnett Formula, I speculated that he might be positioning himself as a potential "English Candididate" in a future Labour leadership contest.

    Well, I'm wrong apparently. According to the BBC today, he's endorsed Gordon.

    Furthermore, he reckons Brown's first act as PM should be to call a General Election, in order to give himself a clear and distinct mandate and forestall any cries of "Tony wouldn't have done this..."

    There's only one problem with Ken's analysis, seducitve though it is. It is that no Prime Minister - let alone one as cautious as Mr Brown - is going to call an election while ten points behind in the opinion polls.

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    Thursday, June 15, 2006

    Blog of the Week!

    As if Iain Dale has not been generous enough towards this blog over recent days, he has now named it as Blog of the Week in his slot on Channel 4's podcast, The Morning Report.

    You can listen to it in full HERE but if you want to hear it, make sure you do so today because the podcast is updated each morning. Iain's bit starts about three quarters of the way through.

    In case you miss it - and because I think it's worth preserving! - here's what Iain had to say about me:

    "I still can't work out who he votes for, but his blog carries the sort of insight into the political scene you would expect from a former lobby hack but without the baggage of working for one of the major newspaper groups like the Guardian or Rupert Murdoch. I don't drink, but his blog conjures up the image of drinking a rather fine wine: like a good vintage, some of his writing is to be savoured."

    Some may not be aware that Iain is the proprietor of Politicos, the online bookseller and publisher. So when someone who has published as many books as he has says something like that about my writing, it really means something, I can tell you.

    Incidentally, as Iain is at pains to point out on his own blog, the piece was recorded well before I named his blog at No 1 in my Top 10 published here on Tuesday!

    The rest of his C4 piece, which focuses on the reasons behind the current proponderance of the right-wing blogosphere and the relative lack of prominent left-of-centre blogs, is also well worth listening to.

    Interestingly, he doesn't appear to class this as a "left-of-centre" blog in the context of that debate, but I guess that's because he can't work out who I vote for!

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    The Blears Blog (Not)

    I don't know who thought of doing THIS. But I wish it had been me.

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    Wednesday, June 14, 2006

    A-lister picked to be my next MP

    The Derby Evening Telegraph reports that long serving Derby City councillor and Tory A-list candidate Pauline Latham has won the battle to contest the newly-created seat of Mid-Derbyshire for the Conservatives at the next election.

    Who cares? Well, I do, because I live there and because, as it's likely to be a rock-solid Tory constituency, Pauline is almost certain to become my MP.

    Fortunately, we go back quite a long way. Pauline was on Derbyshire County Council back in the 1980s when I covered it for the Evening Telegraph and we have stayed in touch, occasionally running into eachother and enjoying a drink or two at party conferences.

    Word has it that most of the A-List put in for this seat, so I personally think it's great that they've chosen a local candidate. I might even vote for her.

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    The Great Local Votes Swindle is just the beginning

    A report out today from the Electoral Reform Society drives a further nail into the coffin of our discreidted first-past-the-post electoral system.

    It reveals that a dozen councils in the recent local elections ended up being controlled by the "wrong" party because the one with the largest share of the vote did not win the most seats.

    It also points out that in Barking and Dagenham, the far-right British National Party won 12 seats with 8,506 votes across the borough as a whole while the Conservatives won one seat with 9,306.

    You can read the full report HERE.

    This, however, is just the beginning. As I have mentioned previously on this blog, there is a very real possibility that the sort of scenario outlined in the ERS report could actually happen at national level.

    If the Tories end up in front of Labour by anything between 0-4pc of the national share of the vote, it is overwhelmingly likely that Labour will remain the largest single party and in a position, possibly with Lib Dem help, to remain in government.

    The ERS report seems to have been ignored by most of the big media outfits (including the BBC) today and also by the Tory blogosphere, which doesn't seem to want to discuss proportional representation even though it is crystal clear that their party would benefit from it.

    When the next election produces the constitutional equivalent of a dog's breakfast, perhaps they'll sit up and take notice.

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    Oh no, Oaten's on Question Time...

    Mark Oaten's attempts to rehabilitate himself as a serious politician continue tonight with an appearance on Question Time.

    For my part, I reckon he should take Jonathan Calder's advice and concentrate on being the MP for Winchester. (NB This post is, in part, just an excuse to link to the best headline I have seen in the blogosphere this year.)

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    Tuesday, June 13, 2006

    My Top 10 Political Blogs

    Okay, so this will quite possibly bring me even more hatred, ridicule and contempt than the Top 10 Political Journalists list did...but for the sake of completeness, here are the adversaries I deem most worthy.

    It is quite clear that there are two political blogs that are currently way out in front of the rest in terms of visitors, frequency of posts, volume of comments and general political influence, and there is no use pretending otherwise. The real challenge for the rest of us is for a liberal or left-of-centre blog to come forward and challenge these two front runners, or at the very least, provide a distinctive and authoritative left voice in what is currently a rather right-leaning political blogosphere.

    It's also a very fast-changing world. At various points in the last year my Top 10 might have included the likes of Honourable Fiend, Westminster Village, Ming's Dynasty, Talk Politics and the Apollo Project - all now sadly defunct. Anyway, here goes.

    1. Iain Dale's Diary. I don't of course agree with all of Dale's views - he is after all the former chief-of-staff to David Davis and a former Conservative candidate. But his blog offers an unrivalled insight not only into what's going on in right-wing circles but also which stories are pressing the buttons of the right-wing press, with whom he evidently has close personal links. Unlike many at the top of their professions, Iain is a generous-minded character and often features posts from other less widely-read blogs (like mine) on his site. Pips Guido Fawkes to the top spot solely because his blog is updated more often and covers a slightly broader range of subject matter.

    2. Guido Fawkes. Love him, hate him, you certainly can't ignore him. What I love? The complete and total irreverence for all forms of authority and the sheer chutzpah (and apparent lack of regard for the libel laws) with which he publishes his exposes. What I hate? The druggy references - the real-life Guido was a major player in the rave scene of the early 90s - and the occasional boasts about betting coups, such as making money out of the death of John Smith. But these are but minor personal irritants. This blog is, basically, essential reading for anyone with a serious interest in contemporary politics.

    3. Labour Watch. It won't surprise many people to know that a Lib Dem councillor is behind this. But if you can put that to one side, this blog is a superb journalistic resource for anyone interested in the decline of New Labour as a governing force. Not only will you find here most of the national news stories charting Blair's gradual demise but also a host of local examples of what the author calls "Labour mendacity, corruption and failure." There are cleverer, wittier anti-Blair blogs out there, but none which manage to reflect so well what's really happening on the ground.

    4. Political Betting. I thought long and hard about whether this is actually a blog - in truth it's more a one-man punditry factory, and a hugely influential one at that. But either way, you can't fault Mike Smithson's political analysis, even if the punditry is geared towards the betting markets rather than as an end in itself. It is to some extent a victim of its own success though - each post routinely gets over 100 comments and it is hard going to plough through all of those to see whether the point you want to make has already been made by someone else.

    5. Conservative Home. The third right-wing blog to make my Top 5, illustrating the current centre of political gravity in the blogosphere. But Tim Montgomerie's CH is a very different animal to Dale's Diary. Whereas the latter is very much about Iain's personality and views, Tim is an aggregator par excellence, culling together all the big issues of the day with particular emphasis on Tory matters. If I have one criticism it's that too much of it tends to lead back to the mainstream media rather than to other blogs, but that may change as the blogosphere grows in importance.

    6. Nick Robinson. I don't like mainstream media blogs generally. Most of them aren't real blogs in the accepted sense of the word - Trevor Kavanagh's being a good example - and even the Guardian's much-vaunted Comment is Free (not a blog, but a blogging platform) is fairly restrictive in what it will let you link out to. As a BBC blog, Robinson's suffers from the same problem, but he does at least respond to comments and, unlike some other MSM bloggers, is often more outspoken online than he is on screen. Oh, and his analysis is spot-on too - most of the time.

    7. Skipper. Very much a personal choice, but there's a far amount that Skipper - aka politics lecturer Bill Jones - and I have in common. He lives in the North, his views are distinctly left of centre, his blog aims to be serious yet unpretentious, and he demonstrates that you don't need to be in the Lobby and/or London to write authoritatively about politics. Like me Skip also updates his blog most days, and aims to provide a big-picture overview of what's happening rather than break individual stories. But unlike me, he tends to give Mr Blair the benefit of the doubt most of the time!

    8. Recess Monkey. The humour on this blog can sometimes seem a bit impenetrable to those not well-versed in the ways of Westminster, and a lot of the comments on it are somewhat incestuous. But what's clever about this blog is that, although it is written by a journalist, Alex Hilton, it reads as if it really is written by a bunch of 20-something researchers in MPs offices, of the type that congregate outside the Red Lion on Friday afternoons in summer and then go and shag eachother. That said, it's undergoing a slight dip in quality at present - three months back, it would definitely have been placed third on my list.

    9. Forceful and Moderate. What sets this apart from other Lib Dem blogs is not the quality of its political analysis or aggregation - Jonathan Calder's Liberal England is much better at that - but the sheer brilliance of its main writer, Femme de Resistance, although it is technically a group blog. Like many bloggers, she doesn't post often enough, but when she does it's always worth reading. In contrast to all the other pseudonymous bloggers on this Top 10, all of whose identities are actually fairly well known, I have no idea who Femme de Resistance is, but I suspect she's a journalistic star of the future.

    10. Bloggerheads. Just as you don't judge a book by its cover, don't judge this blog by the design. Tim Ireland is the "twisted genius" behind it, and, for the most part, it is brilliant anti-Blair agitprop, if slightly pre-occupied in recent weeks with the fate of noisy anti-war protester Brian Haw. Tim's sheer creativity rivals that of Guido and ought by rights to make him as influential on the left as his right-wing counterpart, but he suffers slightly from that peculiarly British problem, of being too clever by half. He also doesn't allow unregistered users to comment, which is, frankly, a pain in the arse.

    And that's it. If you want to know who I think is bubbling under, you could take a look at my "Best of the Blogosphere" blogroll once I've got round to rebuilding it which will list what I think are the Top 40, but they will be listed alphabetically, not in order of preference.

    Finally, there are three blogs on that would make it into any other Top 10 but which are not political blogs in the strictest sense although they do touch on political issues, and those are Tim Worstall, Dr Crippen and, pre-eminently, Rachel from North London, the single best writer so far thrown up by the blogging medium. If by now you're bored of reading about politics and need to get back in touch with your emotional side, suggest you make yourself a coffee and read this.

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    Monday, June 12, 2006

    Political cross-dressing: Should left-of-centre voters now support Cameron?

    Last week's outbreak of political cross-dressing, with David Cameron saying let's be nice to public sector workers and Tony Blair and Gordon Brown threatning them with miserly pay increases, provided plenty of food-for-thought for my Saturday Column and accompanying Podcast.

    It led me to pose a question which I think could well become a defining issue for many existing Labour and Lib Dem voters in the run-up to the next General Election. It is this.

    "Is Britain better off being governed by a centre-right party that seeks to adopt an inclusive approach to voters of a left persuasion, than a centre-left party forever fretting about whether it can also appeal to the right?

    "In other words, could a David Cameron government, in practice, turn out to be further to the left than Tony Blair’s?"


    I suspect there will be some fairly robust opinions on this - Stalin's Gran, I'm relying on you for one!

    But it seems to me at least a valid question to ask whether voters on the left will get a better hearing from a man who seems keen to court their support than a man who has always been able to take that support for granted.

    The question is given added significance by the dramatic lurch to the right of the Lib Dems, who have abandoned their unique selling point of being the party that backs progressive taxation in a cynical bid to outflank the Tories in Middle England.

    There are a lot of centre-left votes which are going to be up for grabs at the next election. And mine is one of them.

    * You can read my column in full on my companion blog, In the name of God, go!