The Wages of Spin

Two, or possibly even three letters have been sent to Tony Blair by Labour MPs demanding that he stand down immediately. The leaked memo published in today's Daily Mirror shows why they are right.

When I first saw this, I have to say my first reaction was that it was a spoof. Someone on another blog has likened it to an Armando Iannucci sketch and I think that's about right.

But Kevin Maguire, loyal Brownite though he may be, is not the kind of reporter who gets spoofed. Whether or not Blair himself ever saw the memo, I do believe it is genuine.

What it shows, above all, is that whatever tenuous grip on reality might once have existed within the Blair Bunker has now been completely and irretrievably lost.

The memo states that Mr Blair "needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."

It's that phrase "needs to go with the crowds wanting more" that does it for me. Has whoever wrote that picked up a newspaper lately, or read the opinion polls, or spoken to ordinary voters, or Labour Party members for that matter?

If they had, they would know that the country, and the party too, is fed-up to the back teeth of Blair, has been for some time, and just wants him to get on his bike.

The last conceivable date at which Blair could have "gone with the crowds wanting more" would have been immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the Spring of 2003, before it became clear what an evil morass we had involved ourselves in, or how far the public had been deceived into backing the war in the first place.

This evident loss of touch with reality is all of a one with that strange "Anthony" mug with which Mr Blair appeared at his recent monthly press conference.

"You're a man who's in charge, others follow your lead. Your refined inner voice drives your thoughts and deeds. You possess great depth and have a passionate mind. Others think you're influential, ethical and kind," it read.

A few years back, the Downing Street spokesman Tom Kelly sought to rubbish his namesake Dr David Kelly by describing him as a "Walter Mitty Charachter," ignoring, for instance, the pivotal role which Dr Kelly played in verifying the disarmament process in Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Well, who is Walter Mitty now, Tom?

Of course, Tony Blair has always had a Messiah complex. I don't mean he thinks he is Jesus Christ, but he does think that he is in some way the chosen one, a modern-day Moses perhaps, the only one capable of leading his people from the wilderness to the promised land, perhaps even the only one capable of keeping them there.

What is outlined in the memo is not so much a resignation, as an ascension into heaven, or at least into the bright, sunlit uplands of elder statesmanship.

As Maguire states: "Privately a highly detailed battle plan is in place that aims to catapult Mr Blair out of office and into elder statesmanship with as many bells and whistles as possible. The key aides masterminding the most drawn-out exit in British political history have thought of everything - even a celestial choir, courtesy of Songs of Praise.

"While Mr Blair scolds us for "obsessing" over his exit date, it is clear he is a lot more obsessed."

But to those of us who have spent the better parts of our careers following the fortunes of Tony Blair and New Labour, none of this should come as a great surprise.

Mr Blair was spun into office in the first place, and to be spun out of office courtesy of a carefully co-ordinated series of photo-ops and interviews would doubtless be an appropriate end for the Great Charlatan.

Environment Secretary David Miliband has said today that he reckons it will happen in 12 months time, but whether or not that constitutes confirmation of the wretched "timetable" which Mr Blair was only days ago seeking to deny us, he won't last that long.

All political careers end in failure - but Blair's is now in danger of ending in farce.

Blair-must-go watch update:

Calling for Blair to go now/this year

Chris Bryant, Sion Smon and 15 other Labour MPs
Andrew Smith
Frank Dobson
Michael Meacher
Ashok Kumar
Glenda Jackson
The Guardian
The Daily Telegraph
The Economist
The New Statesman
Tribune
Polly Toynbee
Matthew Parris
Jonathan Freedland
Stephen Pollard
Paul Linford
Bloggerheads
Skipper
BBC Newsnight poll
Times Populus poll

Demanding a timetable for leadership handover

Wayne David, Don Touhig and other Welsh MPs
Neal Lawson/Compass
Nick Raynsford
Martin Salter
Howard Stoate

Footnote: Mike White of the Guardian, who was widely believed to have counselled his newspaper against calling for Blair to go this year, is now calling for "a dignified exit" soon.

Blogging: The Times gets it

Until now, most of the mainstream media's attempts at jumping on the blogging bandwagon have missed the point somewhat.

By far the biggest and most ambitious such attempt was the launch of the Guardian's much-vaunted and much-hyped Comment is Free uber-blog earlier this year.

I don't want to diss it too much. It does provide a valuable aggregation of mainly very good commentary, and it does give people a chance to interact with Guardian writers in a way they didn't previously have.

But a blog it is not. For a start, it doesn't link out to other blogs, except those written by its own guest writers. Even when other bloggers post comments on there, they can't even use their own URLs, for instance.

A similar fanfare accompanied the entry of Trevor Kavanagh into the blogosphere. Unfortunately, he didn't update his blog for weeks and the last entry is currently dated 14th August.

To me, the Kavanagh episode was proof that great journalists don't necessarily make great bloggers any more than great bloggers necessarily make great journalists. Doyen of the Lobby he may be, but hardly "the blog the politicians fear."

The Daily Mail's Ben Brogan comes closer. He at least takes the trouble to update his blog most days, even though it too doesn't link out to other sites.

Much the same could be said of Sky's Adam Boulton and the BBC's Nick Robinson, although the latter blog does have the merit of amplifying Robinson's on-screen commentaries.

What none of them had done though was to provide a sort of "umbrella" service featuring both MSM commentary and the best of the blogosphere, a daily version of Tim Worstall's peerless "Britblog" round-up.

Thankfully, the new Comment Central blog from Times Comment Editor Danny Finkelstein (pictured) does exactly that, promising a return to the original spirit of weblogging - "logging the web, not my life."

This to my mind is the best national newspaper blogging initiative so far. Rather than an attempt to corral the political blogosphere under one newspaper brand like CiF, it is a genuine attempt to celebrate its diversity.

I wish him luck.

Where have I been?

As I've just come back from a trip abroad I thought I would post a link to THIS SITE. It enables you to create a map of all the countries you have visited and I quite like it.

As you can see, I am not really that well-travelled, although I have done most of Western Europe as well as New Zealand, which as everyone who has ever been there knows is the most beautiful country in the world.

I've not really been to Alaska, by the way, or Hawaii. Or Sicily or Sardinia for that matter (although I have been to Corsica and that was a really fab place.) The map just shows it that way.

I notice that Blair failed to resign while I was away, which was mildly disappointing, but will at least give me the opportunity to revisit the Labour leadership issue tomorrow.

The Greatest PMs we never had?

I see the BBC has another list ranking 20th century Prime Ministers, with Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher not surprsingly coming out on top, Neville Chamberlain and Anthony Eden at the bottom, and Tony Blair somewhere in the middle.

I reckon that's probably about right, although I would rate Churchill higher than Thatcher and both James Callaghan and John Major higher than Francis Beckett does - both were dealt an impossible hand by their small parliamentary majorities. I also think he rates Harold Macmillan far too highly - the man was essentially a poseur who allowed Britain to stagnate under his seven-year leadership.

Meanwhile, as my contribution to the debate, here's my list of the Top 10 20th century figures never to become Prime Minister. Or at least, in one case, not yet.

1. Denis Healey
2. R.A. Butler
3. Hugh Gaitskell
4. Joseph Chamberlain
5. Gordon Brown
6. Enoch Powell
7. Iain Macleod
8. Michael Heseltine
9. John Smith
10.Roy Jenkins

Not all of these men could realistically have become Prime Minister - three of them, Gaitskell, Macleod and Smith - died before they had a real opportunity. But some of them would have done a far better job than the men they were forced to give way to - notably Healey (Callaghan), Butler (Home), Brown (Blair) and Heseltine (Major.)

Enoch Powell is of course the great enigma in my list. Had he, rather than Heath, won the Tory leadership in 1965, would "Thatcherism" have arrived 15 years earlier? Probably the country wasn't ready for it then, and might never have been ready for Enoch. But a genuinely great man nonetheless.

Home Thoughts From Abroad....

...was of course the title of Roy Jenkins' 1979 Dimbleby Lecture in which he first floated the possibility of the breakaway party that eventually became the SDP. Well, staying at my wife's cousin's cottage in South Normandy over the past week or so, I've been having a few home thoughts of my own.

As anyone who has ever been to Northern France in August will surely know, the place is pretty well deserted at this time of year. Much of the population heads for the South at the height of summer, and over recent days we have driven through fairly sizeable villages where there is not a soul to be seen.

The autoroutes are much the same. We made the journey between Calais and Rouen - a distance of 205km - in just under 1hr 40 mins, the equivalent of driving from Sheffield to the M25 in a similar time. It just couldn't be done in Britain any more, but in France, you can do it without even breaking the speed limit.

The overwhelming impression - from driving anyplace or simply from looking across the fields from the garden of our cottage - is that this is a country with a lot of that precious commodity, space.

You can get Radio Four longwave over here too, so we have been listening in each morning to catch up on the news from home and to express mild disappointment if not surprise that neither Prescott nor Blair have resigned yet.

In fact all the stories in our first week over here were about something else entirely - the influx of Eastern European immigrants into the UK, and Ruth Kelly's big speech, echoing john Reid, echoing Michael Howard, confirming that it is no longer "racist" to want to have a debate about immigration.

Personally, I think the Government has been pretty shameless in reaching this position, giving its denigration of Howard over the immigration issue during last year's election campaign, but nevertheless, it is the right one.

The debate about how many more people we should allow into the UK is no longer about race. It is about infrastructure, about space.

We are an overcrowded island. I have, increasingly, come to the reluctant conclusion that continued large scale inward migration into Britain, which may be desirable for all sorts of social, cultural and economic reasons, can only be achieved at further massive cost to our environment, to those remnants of rural life that remain.

Doubtless in some eyes to express sentiments such as these will make me a reactionary old Tory, one of those misty-eyed Daily Telegraph readers who wish the country was still as it was during the 1950s.

But what you get when you come to France - with a similar population to the UK's, but about four times the area - is a glimpse of a rural idyll of a much older vintage, the lost England of Thomas Hardy, of Laurie Lee's Cider with Rosie before the coming of the roads.

Is it so very wrong to want to preserve at least some of that back home?

Tories go into conference season in by far the best shape

As I said in Friday's post on David Cameron's latest attempt to solve the West Lothian Question, last week's Tory aims and values statement was high on woffle and low on specifics.

Despite that, and the ongoing internal difficulties over candidate selection, however, it is clear that the Conservatives go into next month's party conference season in far better shape than their opponents.

Unlike both Sir Menzies Campbell and Tony Blair, Cameron can go to his conference knowing there is absolutely no threat to his leadership.

More on this theme in weekly podcast which is available HERE.

It's time for beer

Well, that's about it from me for a few days. I'm taking my customary late-summer break to recharge my batteries ahead of what seems certain to be an exciting party conference season. Bloggage will be lighter than usual over the next week or so, but I expect I will be checking in from time to time.

Meanwhile - I'm off for a much-needed beer!

Holiday fun

A current post on Labour Home features a "Fantasy Cabinet" with John McDonnell as PM, Bob Marshall Andrews as Home Secretary and Dianne Abbott as Health Secretary, among other things.

This will, of course, remain exactly that - a Fantasy Cabinet, though for most of us, I expect it is more the stuff of nightmares.

Meanwhile, what of the more realistic alternatives? Well, for what it's worth, here's my suggestion for a balanced Labour team to fight the next election, providing a blend of youth and experience, male and female, Blairite, Brownite, and independent left.

Readers are of very welcome to suggest their own line-ups!

Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
Deputy Prime Minister and Communities and Regions Secretary: Hazel Blears
Chancellor of the Exchequer: David Miliband
Foreign Secretary: Hilary Benn
Home Secretary: John Denham
Leader of the House of Commons: Jack Straw
Party Chairman: Alan Johnson
Minister of Justice: Des Browne
Minister for Consitutional Affairs and Devolved Institutions: Peter Hain
Trade and Industry Secretary: Alastair Darling
Defence Secretary: John Reid
Education Secretary: John Hutton
Health Secretary: Yvette Cooper
Transport Secretary: Douglas Aleaxander
Work and Pensons Secretary: Ruth Kelly
Environment Secretary: Charles Clarke
Culture, Media and Sport: James Purnell
Leader of the Lords: Lord Kinnock
International Development Secretary: Jacqui Smith
Minister for Social Exclusion: Stephen Timms
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: John Healey
Chief Whip: Nick Brown

Out go: Tony Blair, John Prescott, Margaret Beckett, Charlie Falconer, Patricia Hewitt, Tessa Jowell, Hilary Armstrong and Valerie Amos.

A constructive Unionist response

On page nine of his latest Statement of Aims and Values, David Cameron promises that his party will "strengthen the United Kingdom by providing a constructive Unionist response to the West Lothian Question."

If this strikes you as woffle, you shouldn't be too surprised, given Cameron's previous policy statement promising that a Tory Government would be in favour of "a strong economy" and "representing modern Britain."

There are in fact only two "constructive Unionist responses" to the West Lothian Question. One is to abolish the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly and return all decision-making to a unitary UK Parliament. The other is to create an English Parliament with equivalent powers to the other two devolved institutions.

It's your call, Dave.

Blackpool Forever!

A fearful furore appears to have erupted on the Tory blogosphere over a decision by the party's board to return to Blackpool for its 2007 conference.

My days of attending party conferences are thankfully over, but I have to say I have a bit of a soft spot for what the Daily Telegraph's diarist calls the "tatty old Lancashire resort."

On my first visit there, in 1995, I stayed in a pub called The Empress. The room was a bit basic, but it stayed open till about 3am in the morning and served an excellent pint of Thwaites Bitter. Who could want more?

Mind you, not everyone felt the same. I remember one fellow hack,who is now a political editor on a national newspaper, being rather put out to find an incontinence mattress on the bed in his B&B.

I do agree with the general thrust of opinion that the Winter Gardens is an appalling venue, and it absolutely the case that however much money they spend on it, it will continue to smell of stale beer and tobacco, forever conjuring up in my mind the lost political era of "smoke-filled rooms" and "beer and sandwiches at No 10."

But the Imperial Hotel, by contrast, is a fantastic venue - the "No 10 bar" there is easily the best drinking hole in any of the regular conference venues and I have many happy memories of long story-getting evenings spent there.

I have far worse party conference memories of Brighton, which invariably became a complete security nightmare at conference time due to the need to seal-off the main road in front of the conference centre.

For some reason, I also seemed to get worse hangovers in Brighton as well. But that's another story.

Well done England

I must admit I had my doubts about Steve McLaren. He came over as a bit of a yes-man during the Eriksson era and I don't really think his "achievements" in the domestic game quite merited such a promotion, although he was very good at Derby during the Jim Smith era.

Furthermore, I think the decision to appoint a new manager before, rather than after the World Cup risked all sorts of problems in the event of a poor performance by Sven's Men.

So last night's 4-0 win against Greece was very refreshing to see, in particular the new sense of dynamism in the midfield area and the way Terry and Ferdinand were encouraged to bring the ball out of defence.

With Rooney yet to return from suspension, and the prospect of a fit-again Owen in the team, it is suddenly exciting to be an England fan again.

John Reid: The backlash begins...

Every Labour politician who has ever been spoken about as a potential alternative leader to Gordon Brown has eventually suffered a media backlash, and it is already clear that John Reid will be no exception.

Today's piece by Stephen Glover in the Daily Mail is fairly typical of the kind of thing we can expect as the prospect of a bloody battle over the corpse of New Labour grows ever closer.

"One wonders why Mr Blair's assumed heir apparent Gordon Brown, who is on paternity leave, did not think it right to return to London to restore order. Perhaps he has taken the view that, far from improving his chances of becoming the next Prime Minister, Dr Reid has, in fact, dramatically reduced them.

"For the spectacle of this sinister old Marxist seizing control is enough to make most of us feel like taking to the hills. It should also persuade Labour MPs that this rather scary figure is unlikely ever to work his way into the affections of Middle England."

The change of mood was also reflected in a piece on Political Betting.com which last Friday was reporting a sharp tightening of Reid's leadership odds in the wake of his performance over the terror raids.

Today, however, Mike Smithson was posing the question whether some of Reid's past indiscretions might catch up with him, including an occasion on which he called the pictured Jeremy Paxman a West London Wanker.

My own view on the matter has not altered since I penned last week's Saturday Column. In an ideal world, Reid would be the first choice of very few Labour MPs or party members and I do not currently expect him to beat Mr Brown in a straight contest.

But if the party's poll ratings were to plummet and Reid's public approval ratings consistently topped those of the Chancellor, they might, repeat might just have to bite the bullet and elect him.

Update: I somehow neglected to include this excellent post from Iain Dale depicting Roy Hattersley's likely reaction if Reid becomes Prime Minister.

The Lardy one apparently told Scottish radio listeners that he would SHOOT himself if the Home Sec got the job, though sadly no link to the original story appears to exist.

Blog changes

I've been making a few changes to the contents panel today, mainly with the aim of improving the signposting and adding some deserving new links.

The biggest change is the subdivision of the "Best of the Blogosphere" category, which was becoming rather long, back into six broad political categories: Non-aligned, Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Anti-Blair and Anglosphere. If anyone thinks I've miscategorised them, please email me and I'll change it.

Anyway this gives me the opportunity to introduce a few more links to sites that I rate including:

* Tory Radio, Jonathan Shepherd's increasingly influential podcasting site;
* The Nether World, David Simonetti's latest solo offering;
* Mike Ion, one of the more sensible voices in the Labour blogosphere;
* Craig Murray, who has something to say even if you don't agree with it;
* And finally, the hilarious Hitler Cats which needs no further introduction.

I've also put in a permanent link to the 7/7 Bombings Inquiry Petition, in the hope of encouraging more visitors to sign it.

Some fellow bloggers have suggested I dispense with Blogger and purchase myself a spanking new bespoke website as Iain Dale did earlier this year, but I must say I'm in two minds.

I really like the simplicity and "cleanness" of the Blogger template, and it also seems to load on the page a damned site more quickly than some other blogs I could mention. I would welcome views on this however.

Finally, thanks to everyone who continues to visit the blog and to make it worth my while.

Visitor numbers aren't yet in the Guido/Iain Dale league, well not by a long chalk, but I am pleased to say that they have very nearly doubled over the past month and at the current rate of progress I should be challenging Guido by about September 2013! Not that it's a competition of course.....