It's War in Cyberspace

I have long believed that Guido Fawkes and Tim "Manic" Ireland are the two greatest creative genii in the political blogosphere. They also come from completely different political persuasions and have wildly diverging views about just what the purpose of political blogging ought to be. So it's barely surprising that Tim has chosen to mark the return of his Bloggerheads blog from a period of semi-dormancy with this coruscating attack on his right-wing alter ego.

It's an extremely long post, but in summary, Tim argues that Guido is a danger to political blogging and accordingly should be sent to Coventry by the rest of us by having his link removed from our blogrolls. Guido has now hit back with the accusation that Tim is basically launching the "flame war" as a means of kick-starting his "moribund" blog.

Well, for my part, I won't be removing either of them from my blogroll, for the simple reason that both of them are blogs I like and admire. Just as Guido has helped keep the pressure on No 10 over the cash-for-honours scandal, so Tim has uncovered some great stories of his own such as exposing the Johnson4Leader plot and highlighting the journalistic shortcomings in the case of Mirza Tahir Hussain.

So, sorry to sit on the fence guys - but in my view the blogosphere is big enough for both of you.

How the two sides are lining up so far:

For Manic

Chicken Yoghurt
Tom Watson
Stuart Bruce
Ministry of Truth

For Guido

Theo Spark
Dizzy
Tim Worstall
The UK Daily Pundit

Sitting Beside Me on the Fence....

Labour Watch
Liberal England
Lib Dem Voice



Keen observers may have noticed that, with the possible exceptions of UK Daily Pundit and myself, the debate is thus far polarising on political lines....

Martin Kettle's flawed history lesson

Amid all the spurious nonsense that gets written about the Labour leadership, one or two articles occasionally stand out. Such was the piece by Martin Kettle in Saturday's Guardian in which he advocated a six-way contest for the Labour leadership along the lines of the one that took place in 1976 - the only other time in its history that Labour has chosen a new Prime Minister while in office.

Kettle's views on this subject have long been worthy of note on account of his close relationship with Tony Blair and evident dislike of Gordon Brown. If he is saying something, it is a fair bet that someone in the Blair inner-circle is thinking it.

To my mind, his call for a contest is all of a piece with the recent similar intervention by arch-Blairite Stephen Byers - an attempt to turn what should be a debate about policy into a debate about personalities.

This is to confuse two very separate issues. There is a genuine desire in the Labour Party, a genuine need even, for a debate over its future policy direction. But there is much less debate over whether Gordon Brown is the right person to take that forward, because the overwhelming view of the Cabinet, the PLP, the Unions and the Party as a whole is that he is.

For those with an interest in recent political history, the most interesting aspect of Kettle's piece is his analogy with the 1976 leadership election, in which Tony Benn, James Callaghan, Tony Crosland, Michael Foot, Denis Healey and Roy Jenkins all stood. He suggests that a contest between Hilary Benn, Gordon Brown, Peter Hain, David Miliband, John Reid and Jack Straw would have a similarly revitalising effect on the Government today.

Superficially, it's an attractive argument, and it would certainly generate a lot of excitement at Westminster and beyond. But there are three major flaws in it as I will seek to show.

First, it ignores what Kettle's would-be candidates have actually said on the record about the issue. Benn, Hain, and Miliband have all made it clear they are supporting Gordon Brown, and that they regard his claims on the job as superior to their own. Straw has said nothing but is widely assumed to hold the same view. Only Reid has stood aside from this consensus.

Second, the "Class of '76" were, with the possible exception of Foot, all true political and intellectual heavyweights with genuine claims to leadership. Two of them, Crosland and Healey, would make most people's lists of the Best Prime Ministers We Never Had. Only Brown among the current crop can boast anything like that sort of stature.

Third, there were genuine ideological differences between the candidates in 1976 which to an extent defined the contest. The party was deeply split between the Gaitskellite right represented by Crosland, Healey and Jenkins, and the Tribunite left represented by Foot and Benn. In the end it chose Callaghan in the middle as the best man to keep the two factions together. No such divisions exist at the top of the party today.

A contest, not least a six-way one, would be great news for the press, and for the wider commentariat. I am increasingly coming to the view that, for the Labour Party, it would be a pointless diversion.

Podcast Episode 52

A little later than normal, this week's podcast develops the theme of Tony Blair as a "follower not a leader" that I wrote about on this blog last week. It can be heard HERE or alternatively read on the Companion Blog HERE.

Links and Finks

Apologies for the relatively light bloggage this week which was due to the need to finish off an important project at work. Just time before I clock off for the weekend to tell you about the latest new links on the blog and to highlight a couple of interesting new initiatives on the blogosphere.

The first of these is Daniel Finkelstein's long-awaited "best of the blogs" aggregator on Comment Central. It's called Web Grab, and it's easily the best thing of its kind to be found on any national newspaper website.

Unlike Comment is Free, Web Grab is genuinely seeking to reflect the diversity of stuff on the blogosphere, owing its inspiration to Tim Worstall's peerless Britblog round-up. I was fortunate enough to get a mention in the first Web Grab, in the shape of my post a week ago on the devilishly clever John Reid.

The other thing that's caught my eye recently - and I'm a bit late with this as Dizzy had it a while back, is the New Constitution blog, which is, at its name suggests, an attempt to write a new constitution via the blogosphere. I don't necessarily agree with all the content - it's anti-monarchist for a start - but I like the general idea.

As for those new links, welcome aboard Luke Akehurst, one of the best Labour bloggers around, PragueTory, a blog that many people predict is going to be big in 2007, and The Psychiatrist, an interesting health and politics blog from Dr Michelle Tempest.

Like most bloggers I have a general policy of linking to any site that links to mine so if I have missed yours off, please let me know.

BlogGems

An occasional series dedicated to bringing the choicest comments from the blogosphere to a slightly wider audience.
No 5.

"I think it can be safely assumed that when this century's Presidents are graded, George W. Bush will feature at the bottom. If we ever have a worse one then mankind is unlikely to survive for such a survey to be realised."

Campbell Waterman, commenting on Danny Finkelstein's Comment Central blog.

History repeating itself?

"Our troops will have a well-defined mission, to help Iraqis clear and secure neighbourhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security that Baghdad needs."
George W. Bush, 2007

"Our numbers have increased in Vietnam because the aggression of others has increased in Vietnam. There is not, and there will not be, a mindless escalation."
Lyndon B. Johnson, 1966

Who is the most persecuted minority?

I am not one of those who believe that incessantly banging on about homosexuality does the cause of Christianity in this country any great favours. Indeed I am notorious among my circle of Christian friends for my oft-repeated view - not shared by all of them - that if the church got half as worked up about injustice as it does about gay sex then maybe it would have more credibility.

Nevertheless, in the context of what is essentially a political row about a piece of anti-discrimination legislation, the question that sticks in my mind is who is now the most persecuted minority - homosexuals, or Christians?

In my own profession at least, the answer is clear. To have had same-sex experiences is practically de rigeur in some sections of the media. To be a Christian, by contrast, is deeply unfashionable and tends to engender deep distrust on the part of colleagues and, occasionally, employers.

If I were to come out as gay, I doubt very much whether I would lose any readers on this blog or be denied any employment opportunities. I know for a fact that both of these things have happened to me as a result of my being a Christian.

Update: The debate on this now appears to have migrated to Caroline Hunt's blog.

A follower, not a leader

Disappointing though it is for those of us who have argued fairly consistently for something to be done about the environmental costs of air travel, I cannot say I am hugely surprised by Tony Blair's latest comments about the issue in an interview published today. My main criticism of him as a politician down the years has always been that he is essentially a follower, not a leader, and his refusal to seek to lead public opinion on the question of climate change is entirely typical of his cretinous style of political "leadership."

"You know, I'm still waiting for the first politician who's actually running for office who's going to come out and say it - and they're not," he says. Wrong. His own environment minister, who unlike him is actually running for office at the next election, recently called for curbs on shorthaul flights and branded Ryanair the "irresponsible face of capitalism."

Blair would like to think that his comments show himself to be in touch with the great mass of ordinary people. In actual fact they show him to be increasingly out of touch with what has become an emerging political consensus on the air travel issue.

Ten months ago, I described this on the blog as an issue mainstream politics was ignoring. To be fair, it is ignoring it no longer. But the fact that the Prime Minister seems determined to do so only serves to demonstrate once more the extent to which he has outlived his usefulness.

Cruddas leads the way

My ongoing, totally unscientific but possibly quite representative poll on Labour's deputy leadership shows Jon Cruddas leading the way over Hilary Benn with the rest moreorless nowhere, which I think by and large presents a fairly accurate picture of what is really going on.

I have gone with my readership and plumped for Cruddas in my latest podcast previewing the race which is now live. For the benefit of those who can't be bothered to listen or subscribe, the full text is available HERE.

The Seven Deadly Sins

I quite enjoyed this as blog questionnaires go. Apparently I have very few problems with lust, but a bit of an issue with pride...

Greed:	Low
Gluttony:	Low
Wrath:	Medium
Sloth:	Low
Envy:	Low
Lust:	Very Low
Pride:	Medium

Take the Seven Deadly Sins Quiz

England: where to from here?

I can't say I am hugely surprised by England's 5-0 Ashes whitewash, given the clear gulf in ability between the two teams and the mistakes made by Duncan Fletcher and Co in selection and preparation - but where do we go from here? The next Ashes series is two and a half years away, in the summer of 2009, so we have plenty of time to regroup and bring on new talent.

There's been much talk about Michael Vaughan coming back as captain, but I'm not convinced he is going to be worth his place in the side. By contrast, although Andrew Strauss has had a poor series on paper, he was the victim of a number of shoddy umpiring decisions and overall looked in good nick. He should get the captaincy in my view.

I have a feeling Paul Collingwood won't be around by 2009, so I think it's probably time to have an extended look at Ed Joyce and Owais Shah as middle-order options. Although he flattered to deceive in this series, several times reaching 50 but failing to go onto a century, Ian Bell will surely come good in the long run.

In the wicketkeeping area, I think we now have to move on from the endless Geraint Jones - Chris Read debate and give an oportunity to James Foster or Steven Davies, both good wicketkeepers who can bat.

The main changes, though, will come in the bowling area. Steve Harmison looked a shadow of his former self in this series and has already retired from one-day cricket at the age of 28. I have a hunch he will have retired from all cricket by the time he reaches 30.

Matthew Hoggard bowled manfully in this series but may be over the hill by 2009. I think our main fast-bowling options by then will be Stuart Broad and Sajid Mahmood, with young spinner Adil Rashid forming a potentially lethal slow-bowling partnership with Monty Panesar.

My XI for 2009: Strauss (Captain), Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Joyce, Flintoff, Davies, Broad, Mahmood, Panesar, Rashid.

Reid: Disarmingly honest, or devilishly clever?

So what exactly is John Reid up to with his big speech today highlighting the need for his party to hold fast to its current political direction and demonstrate to the public that there is more to New Labour than Tony Blair.

On one level, it could be seen as almost an endorsement of Gordon Brown. He says that "personal attacks" on the Chancellor by the Tories will "rebound" and makes clear his view that Brown's achievements "tower above anything anyone in the Tory Party has ever aspired to or could ever aspire to."

If you take this comment at face value, he appears to be saying not only that Gordon is New Labour to the core, but that attempts by the Conservatives to portray him otherwise are doomed to failure.

On another level, though, the speech can clearly be read as a devilishly clever piece of duplicity, that in appearing to praise Brown he is really warning him that he will face a rival leadership bid if he so much as even thinks of lurching a millimetre to the left.

This is certainly how Brownite MP George Mudie, a former Deputy Chief Whip, has interpreted it. He said today: "I think it's an early attempt to put a marker down to get some of the Gordon Brown supporters to say 'we need a change of direction' so that he can say 'this is disloyalty to the leader and, therefore, I shall throw my hat into the ring or we shall find someone to do so'."

Mudie, who led the unsuccessful rebellion against university tuition fees in 2003, is a disappointed and disillusioned man, and some of what he says should be treated with a pinch of salt, but if this is the level of paranoia in the Brownite camp, it doesn't augur well for a smooth leadership transition.

If the Brownites genuinely believe Dr Reid is out to get their man, they should know better than to rise to his bait by putting the worst possible construction on everything.

Far better, surely, to simply throw the ball back into Reid's court by agreeing with everything he says and welcoming his very generous comments about the Chancellor's record?

Poll: who should be Labour's new deputy?

Amid all the New Year predictions about the political year ahead, perhaps the most uncertainty surrounds the identity of John Prescott's successor as Labour deputy. Unlike the Labour leadership, it's a genuinely open race, with Jon Cruddas and Hilary Benn currently heading a field that also includes Alan Johnson, Hazel Blears, Peter Hain and Harriet Harman.

So I thought it was time to introduce a poll which will run for the rest of this month on who it should be. I have also included Jack Straw in the field as he has not ruled out joining the race.

To clarify, I am after views on who you think should get the job, not who you think it will be. I have already nailed my own colours to the mast on the latter point, backing Jon Cruddas in the PB.com political forecasting contest.

To vote, click HERE or go to the Current Polls panel in the sidebar.

The result of my first poll, on whether Labour's next leader should call a General Election immediately on taking office, resulted in a surprisingly narrow majority of 54pc saying yes, he should.

Of course, Gordon Brown won't do this, although I don't think it's beyond the bounds of possibility that he might call one in the summer of 2008 after a year in office, once he has had a chance to show the public that he is a real politician with real values and not some manicured PR man.