Friday, January 04, 2008
The US elections
I'm no great expert on American politics. Indeed I have never really understood it, how for instance someone who couldn't remember the name of the Pakistani president in a live TV interview (I'll bet he can remember it now) could ever be elected, or how someone who lied about not having had "sexual relations with that woman Miss Lewinsky" could have remained in office after being found out. It's clearly a political culture where different sorts of rules apply to that of our own.
Nevertheless, I do know enough about politics in general to know that elections are generally won and lost in the centre ground, and enough about the USA to know that for many Americans, Hillary Clinton remains a dangerously divisive figure. It is my strong hunch, therefore, that if Clinton emerges after Iowa, New Hampshire and "Super Tuesday" as the runaway favourite for the Democratic nomination, the election is the Republicans' to lose.
Realistically the presidency is going to go to one of six men and one woman. Although there are a number of fringe contenders, the serious candidates are, on the Republican side, Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and John McCain, and on the Democrat side, Barack Obama, John Edwards and Mrs Clinton.
Tonight's Iowa caucuses are likely to be won by Obama and Huckabee. That does not, however, mean they are likely to be their party's nominees. In fact it will mean little in the bigger scheme of things besides giving them some temporary momentum going into the more important battles over the coming weeks.
So who do I think will emerge victorious? Well, with the Republican nomination more wide open, and hence less likely to be resolved by Super Tuesday, I have a view that that party's eventual choice may well depend on who ends up as the Democrat front-runner.
If that is Clinton, my hunch is that the Republicans will plump for the experienced and reassuring figure of McCain. If however Obama emerges victorious on the Democrat side - I think Edwards has probably left himself too much to do - the Grand Old Party may feel that it, too, can gamble on a younger and less experienced candidate such as Romney or even Huckabee.
The key question for the Republican Party in this election is the one rather inelegantly posed by a lady at one of John McCain's campaign meetings, namely: "How do we beat the bitch?" The (rather obvious) answer is to choose the candidate with the greatest appeal to swing voters, and that is McCain.
It is early days, but I am convinced that if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, then the Arizona senator will go on to win not only the Republican nomination but also the presidency.
Nevertheless, I do know enough about politics in general to know that elections are generally won and lost in the centre ground, and enough about the USA to know that for many Americans, Hillary Clinton remains a dangerously divisive figure. It is my strong hunch, therefore, that if Clinton emerges after Iowa, New Hampshire and "Super Tuesday" as the runaway favourite for the Democratic nomination, the election is the Republicans' to lose.
Realistically the presidency is going to go to one of six men and one woman. Although there are a number of fringe contenders, the serious candidates are, on the Republican side, Rudy Guiliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and John McCain, and on the Democrat side, Barack Obama, John Edwards and Mrs Clinton.
Tonight's Iowa caucuses are likely to be won by Obama and Huckabee. That does not, however, mean they are likely to be their party's nominees. In fact it will mean little in the bigger scheme of things besides giving them some temporary momentum going into the more important battles over the coming weeks.
So who do I think will emerge victorious? Well, with the Republican nomination more wide open, and hence less likely to be resolved by Super Tuesday, I have a view that that party's eventual choice may well depend on who ends up as the Democrat front-runner.
If that is Clinton, my hunch is that the Republicans will plump for the experienced and reassuring figure of McCain. If however Obama emerges victorious on the Democrat side - I think Edwards has probably left himself too much to do - the Grand Old Party may feel that it, too, can gamble on a younger and less experienced candidate such as Romney or even Huckabee.
The key question for the Republican Party in this election is the one rather inelegantly posed by a lady at one of John McCain's campaign meetings, namely: "How do we beat the bitch?" The (rather obvious) answer is to choose the candidate with the greatest appeal to swing voters, and that is McCain.
It is early days, but I am convinced that if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, then the Arizona senator will go on to win not only the Republican nomination but also the presidency.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
The blogroll 2007
Thanks to everyone who linked to my blog during 2007, including those who managed to accidentally delete me from their sidebars. For the record - and because we all love a good list - the Top 30 referrers for the year (excluding Google searches) are set out below. Sadly three of these blogs - Labour Watch, British Spin, and the much-missed The Daily - are no longer with us, but the rest continue to thrive.
1. Iain Dale's Diary
2. Guido Fawkes
3. Political Betting
4. Turbulent Cleric
5. Jane's the One
6. Witanagemot Club
7. Dizzy Thinks
8. Tom Watson
9. Comment is Free
10. UK Daily Pundit
11. Liberal England
12. Chicken Yoghurt
13. Mars Hill
14. Kate's Home Blog
15. Labour Watch
16. Bloggerheads
17. w4mp
18. British Spin
19. Praguetory
19. Skipper
21. Obsolete
22. Bob Piper
23. Rachel from North London
24. The Daily
25. Croydonian
26. Conservative Home
27. Politaholic
28. Liberal Conspiracy
28. Mike Ion
30. Tim Worstall
1. Iain Dale's Diary
2. Guido Fawkes
3. Political Betting
4. Turbulent Cleric
5. Jane's the One
6. Witanagemot Club
7. Dizzy Thinks
8. Tom Watson
9. Comment is Free
10. UK Daily Pundit
11. Liberal England
12. Chicken Yoghurt
13. Mars Hill
14. Kate's Home Blog
15. Labour Watch
16. Bloggerheads
17. w4mp
18. British Spin
19. Praguetory
19. Skipper
21. Obsolete
22. Bob Piper
23. Rachel from North London
24. The Daily
25. Croydonian
26. Conservative Home
27. Politaholic
28. Liberal Conspiracy
28. Mike Ion
30. Tim Worstall
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