Don't just take my word for it

I wrote in my weekend column that I didn't think there would be a general election any time soon and that if Gordon Brown was bonkers enough to be provoked into calling one, he would lose.

But don't just take my word for it - Ben Brogan, who is much closer touch with the people taking these decisions than I am, said the same on his blog this morning.

Brogan has a strong track record when it comes to predicting that there won't be elections. In the last flurry of media election speculation in the immediate aftermath of the autumn conferences and the bank rescue, he made clear that Brown Central was not even considering the idea.

More notably, the Mail pol ed also stuck his neck out and said there wouldn't be an autumn election in October 2007 at a time when most of Fleet Street were still saying the opposite.

My Top 10 Christmas Carols: No 4

4. The Shepherd's Farewell: Hector Berlioz

Part of the oratorio L'Enfance du Christ, this is another French composition that has become an essential part of the English choral repertoire. The composer, Berlioz, was operating at the height of the romantic era and the piece has a rather other-worldly feel I have always loved.

This carol was a favourite of my dad's in the days when he used to come along and hear the choir at Nine Lessons on Christmas Eve. Today would also have been his 81st birthday, so this one is dedicated to his memory.

My Top 10 Christmas Carols: No 5

5. Mary's Lullaby: John Rutter

Into the top five, and another John Rutter classic, notable for having been written in the space of a single evening in order to fill a three and a half minute gap at the end of a BBC documentary about a choir he was involved with at the time. I think the basses are way too loud in this recording - it is a lullaby after all - but it was the best one I could find.

This carol, which ends with the words "Lullaby my little baby," did not mean a lot to me until I had children of my own, so this choice is dedicated to my babies - George and Clara.