Don't just take my word for it

I wrote in my weekend column that I didn't think there would be a general election any time soon and that if Gordon Brown was bonkers enough to be provoked into calling one, he would lose.

But don't just take my word for it - Ben Brogan, who is much closer touch with the people taking these decisions than I am, said the same on his blog this morning.

Brogan has a strong track record when it comes to predicting that there won't be elections. In the last flurry of media election speculation in the immediate aftermath of the autumn conferences and the bank rescue, he made clear that Brown Central was not even considering the idea.

More notably, the Mail pol ed also stuck his neck out and said there wouldn't be an autumn election in October 2007 at a time when most of Fleet Street were still saying the opposite.