Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
The only way is down
Little time tonight for any more detailed blogging on the Peter Hain story but I've not departed from my view that the real reason he's finished is because he spent 200 grand coming fifth behind Harriet Harman in the deputy leadership contest. However things pan out with the donations story, Hain has been living on borrowed political time ever since that dismal result and the only way is down from now on.
Justin McKeating expresses this rather more bluntly, on Chicken Yoghurt:
I also strongly agree with James Forsyth on Coffee House that Brown's attempt to dress-up this morning's Sun article as a "vote of confidence" when in reality he has left Hain swinging in the wind hardly shows the Prime Minister in his best light.
As I have previously advocated, if he showed some decisiveness, fired Hain and offered his job to Alan Milburn, he could yet salvage something from this situation.
Justin McKeating expresses this rather more bluntly, on Chicken Yoghurt:
"Two hundred grand to be beaten in a popularity contest by Harriet bloody Harman? If I was him, I wouldn't be wondering if it was worth carrying on in politics, I'd be pondering whether it was worth carrying on living."
I also strongly agree with James Forsyth on Coffee House that Brown's attempt to dress-up this morning's Sun article as a "vote of confidence" when in reality he has left Hain swinging in the wind hardly shows the Prime Minister in his best light.
As I have previously advocated, if he showed some decisiveness, fired Hain and offered his job to Alan Milburn, he could yet salvage something from this situation.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Gordon the grinder
Today's weekly Journal column focuses on Gordon Brown's relaunch over the past week and his apparent determination to "play it long" in the hope that his reputation can recover over the next 18 months to two years.
"What is clear is that, having decided there will not be an election this year or maybe even next, the Prime Minister is now digging in for the long haul.
There is a clear political logic to this. Possession is nine-tenths of the law and as things stand, Mr Brown does not have to give up the lease on 10 Downing Street until May 2010.
Even if he were to go on until then and lose, he will still have had nearly three years as Prime Minister in which to lay down some kind of long-term legacy, in the hope that history might judge him rather better than his contemporaries.
And of course, there is always just a chance that he might win, if he can govern competently and sensibly enough for the public to change their mind about him again."
The piece can be read in full HERE.
"What is clear is that, having decided there will not be an election this year or maybe even next, the Prime Minister is now digging in for the long haul.
There is a clear political logic to this. Possession is nine-tenths of the law and as things stand, Mr Brown does not have to give up the lease on 10 Downing Street until May 2010.
Even if he were to go on until then and lose, he will still have had nearly three years as Prime Minister in which to lay down some kind of long-term legacy, in the hope that history might judge him rather better than his contemporaries.
And of course, there is always just a chance that he might win, if he can govern competently and sensibly enough for the public to change their mind about him again."
The piece can be read in full HERE.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Hain's time has been and gone
I have, in the past, been a great admirer of Peter Hain. Up to about 2002/3 he was a strong progressive voice within government who was occasionally given licence to challenge the orthodoxy, as when, for instance, he advocated a higher top rate of tax.
There is a plausible counterfactual argument for saying that, had he resigned with his old ally Robin Cook over the Iraq War in 2003, as his former admirers on the left would have expected him to, he could conceivably have mounted a successful challenge to Gordon Brown in 2007, standing as an experienced former minister on an anti-war ticket.
But it is clear that at some point around that time, Hain lost his balls. He failed to speak out against a war he must in his heart of hearts have opposed, and gradually, his left-field contributions to government policy-making dried up.
Never having been entirely trusted by the right and with his credibility on the left now badly compromised, it did not surprise me in the least that he performed so poorly in last year's deputy leadership election, when he found his whole USP had been successfully purloined by Jon Cruddas.
For me, that is what is so tragi-comic about Hain's current predicament - the fact that he spent £200,000 on a campaign which ended in near-humiliation for a man who once entertained serious aspirations to, if not the premiership, then certainly the Foreign Office.
Since then, he has gone on to win one small but important victory as Work and Pensions Secretary, overcoming Treasury objections to secure a £725m rescue package for 125,000 workers who lost pension rights when their employers went bust or wound up their schemes.
But even had the row over his campaign donations not occurred, I think it likely that he would have left the Cabinet at the next reshuffle, and hence I cannot help but think his time at the top of British politics is now drawing naturally to a close.
Who knows - if it meant Gordon could bring in Alan Milburn as Work and Pensions Secretary and stage a public rapprochement with the Blairites, then this is one crisis that the government might even be able to turn to its advantage.
Cross posted at Liberal Conspiracy
There is a plausible counterfactual argument for saying that, had he resigned with his old ally Robin Cook over the Iraq War in 2003, as his former admirers on the left would have expected him to, he could conceivably have mounted a successful challenge to Gordon Brown in 2007, standing as an experienced former minister on an anti-war ticket.
But it is clear that at some point around that time, Hain lost his balls. He failed to speak out against a war he must in his heart of hearts have opposed, and gradually, his left-field contributions to government policy-making dried up.
Never having been entirely trusted by the right and with his credibility on the left now badly compromised, it did not surprise me in the least that he performed so poorly in last year's deputy leadership election, when he found his whole USP had been successfully purloined by Jon Cruddas.
For me, that is what is so tragi-comic about Hain's current predicament - the fact that he spent £200,000 on a campaign which ended in near-humiliation for a man who once entertained serious aspirations to, if not the premiership, then certainly the Foreign Office.
Since then, he has gone on to win one small but important victory as Work and Pensions Secretary, overcoming Treasury objections to secure a £725m rescue package for 125,000 workers who lost pension rights when their employers went bust or wound up their schemes.
But even had the row over his campaign donations not occurred, I think it likely that he would have left the Cabinet at the next reshuffle, and hence I cannot help but think his time at the top of British politics is now drawing naturally to a close.
Who knows - if it meant Gordon could bring in Alan Milburn as Work and Pensions Secretary and stage a public rapprochement with the Blairites, then this is one crisis that the government might even be able to turn to its advantage.
Sir Edmund Hillary 1919-2008
I can't let today pass without mention of Sir Edmund Hillary - probably not the greatest technical mountaineer in history, but without doubt the most important. In the days when it was a great newspaper, the Daily Express greeted his ascent of the world's highest mountain on Coronation Day with the memorable headline "All this and Everest too."
The expedition members had trained beforehand in Snowdonia, basing themselves for several weeks at the Pen y Gwryd Hotel, a favourite fellwalking haunt of mine. I'll bet they'll be raising a few glasses to Sir Edmund in the hotel bar tonight.
The expedition members had trained beforehand in Snowdonia, basing themselves for several weeks at the Pen y Gwryd Hotel, a favourite fellwalking haunt of mine. I'll bet they'll be raising a few glasses to Sir Edmund in the hotel bar tonight.
Heaven knows I'm fashionable now
Tory leader David Cameron has apparently been paying homage to his "musical hero" Morrissey again, this time with a visit to Salford Lads Club.
We already know that This Charming Man is one of Dave's faves, but which other Smiths/Morrissey classics can be found on his iPod? Here's a few suggestions:
Sweet and TenderHoodie Hooligan
I Started Something I Couldn't Finish
Miserable Lie
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
Nowhere Fast
A Rush and a Push and the Land Is Ours
Stop Me If You Think You’ve Heard This One Before
Margaret on the Guillotine (Okay, maybe not this one...)
Meanwhile a fellow Smiths fan emailed me with the following comment which may or may not be pertinent.
Does anyone know the answer?
We already know that This Charming Man is one of Dave's faves, but which other Smiths/Morrissey classics can be found on his iPod? Here's a few suggestions:
Sweet and Tender
I Started Something I Couldn't Finish
Miserable Lie
Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want
Nowhere Fast
A Rush and a Push and the Land Is Ours
Stop Me If You Think You’ve Heard This One Before
Margaret on the Guillotine (Okay, maybe not this one...)
Meanwhile a fellow Smiths fan emailed me with the following comment which may or may not be pertinent.
"Presumably Cameron chose This Charming Man on Desert Island Discs in the hope that people would think the title suited him. Of course, anyone having found the time since 1983 to listen to the lyrics with anything approaching care will have wondered whether he saw himself as the boy on the desolate hillside with his punctured bicycle, waiting for nature to make a man of him, or the charming man who happens by in his charming car, where the leather runs smooth on the passenger seat."
Does anyone know the answer?
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