Huhne in the driving seat

Yesterday I was (wrongly) accused by an anonymous user of this blog of being the person behind a "fake" YouGov poll which artifically inflated Chris Huhne's support in the Lib Dem leadership election in a bid to create a false sense of momentum.

I suppose I ought to be flattered that anyone could think that I (1) had that much influence, or (2) was wealthy enough to fund YouGov polls.

The truth is Chris Huhne's campaign needs no help from me to give it a sense of momentum. According to a real YouGov poll published today, Huhne is now the front-runner in the race, with 38pc of the votes to 34pc for Ming Campbell and 27pc for Simon Hughes

Click here for the full story, and here for a detailed breakdown of the results.

The three candidates are due to appear on Question Time tonight which should be very interesting. Last week Huhne wiped the floor with the rest of the panel, despite Iain Dale hilariously claiming that actor and would-be Tory MP Adam Rickitt was the star of the show.

As for who was really behind the YouGov poll that wasn't - suspicion points firmly at Camp Campbell as has been covered in detail on Guido's blog.

February 10 Update: Question Time sort of confirmed me in my view that none of the candidates are as good as Charles Kennedy. Huhne did not quite sparkle as I had hoped but at least did not mess-up. For a fuller analysis (and more detailed comment from me) see Iain Dale again.

Since then, of course, we've had Dunfermline East, which demonstrates that the era of three-party politics is not quite as dead as the Tories and Labour would have had us believe.

Be careful, Gordy.

There now seems to be a general consensus across what might broadly be described as the political and media classes that Gordon Brown will be the next Prime Minister, and that the process for the handover is already under way.

According to this piece by Nick Robinson the Chancellor no longer greets questions about the succession with gruff denials.

But while I would by and large go along with this conventional wisdom, I would - to paraphrase John Cole's comment about the downfall of Margaret Thatcher - keep 1pc of my mind open to the possibility that Gordon is being rather royally set up.

Eighteen months is an awfully long time in politics, and if at any point Gordon appears to be taking the succession - and more importantly the Labour Party - for granted, then the mood could quickly change.

It is not impossible that someone like Alan Milburn could capitalise on a groundswell of resentment among Labour members at what might appear like an establishment "stitch-up." And this might be exactly what the Blairites are secretly hoping for.

If I were Gordon, I would revert to the "gruff denial" strategy - and fast.

An offensive image

Here's an image that many Christians find offensive. It depicts the late Graham Chapman playing Brian, a spoof on our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ in the film Monty Python's Life of Brian. It is part of a long tradition of religious satire ranging from the doddery vicar in Dad's Army to Father Ted and the Vicar of Dibley. Christians, it seems, have always been considered fair game when it comes to humour.

Sadly, Chapman is now dead. I could go out on the streets waving a placard and calling for the other perpetrators of this image - Terry Jones, Terry Gilliam, Michael Palin, Eric Idle and John Cleese - to be executed. But I'm not going to, because I happen to believe that the ability to poke fun at religion - or anything else - is an essential democratic freedom. And because even Christians need to be able to laugh at themselves.

February 7 update: Andrew Milloy has kindly sent me some more images which you would presumably never see in Arab newspapers. To view them, click here.

Blair - Brown handover: the latest

I reckon this story by Paddy Hennessy in yesterday's Sunday Tel predicting a handover by "next summer" is about right, though my money would still be on May 2007 - technically next spring if we're being pedantic.

Hennessy also reckons Blair will sack Hilary Armstrong and try to bring back Stephen Byers in the reshuffle, both of which were also predicted in my Column published the previous day and Podcast available from today.

Other reshuffle tips I've heard: Hilary Benn to go to the Home Office and Charles Clarke to Leader of the House; David Miliband Education Secretary with Ruth Kelly moving to International Development, and Prescott man Dick Caborn to become Chief Whip - possibly as a pay-off for the DPM's rescue act on school reform.

There's also speculation about Margaret Beckett but she will not leave the Cabinet unless it's of her own volition. Blair rates her extremely highly as one of his safest pairs of hands and she is also extremely close to Brown. I could be wrong, but my suspicion is that she would want to stay around for the handover.