Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Lib Dems: It looks like Ming

The result of the Lib Dem leadership contest is declared at 3pm tomorrow, with opinions among the political betting fraternity divided over who is likely to take the spoils.

King of the tipsters Mike Smithson is still calling it narrowly for Huhne, but most visitors to his site disagree, with a good two thirds predicting a Campbell victory.

Rival pundits SpecialBets are also going for Campbell, as is Guido Fawkes who has followed the twists and turns of the contest more obsessively than most.

My own gut feeling is that they are right, and that Ming has it. I hope I'm wrong, but my gut instinct tells me that Huhne just hasn't done quite enough to overhaul a man who was a fairly big frontrunner to begin with and who, unlike Hughes, has got through the campaign without any major gaffes.

As to where it will leave the poor old Lib Dems though....well, that's another story.

4pm update: Guido now has a poll of polls showing Ming on 53pc and Huhne on 47pc following redistribution of second preferences. I reckon that's about right.

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