Yesterday I was (wrongly) accused by an anonymous user of this blog of being the person behind a "fake" YouGov poll which artifically inflated Chris Huhne's support in the Lib Dem leadership election in a bid to create a false sense of momentum.
I suppose I ought to be flattered that anyone could think that I (1) had that much influence, or (2) was wealthy enough to fund YouGov polls.
The truth is Chris Huhne's campaign needs no help from me to give it a sense of momentum. According to a real YouGov poll published today, Huhne is now the front-runner in the race, with 38pc of the votes to 34pc for Ming Campbell and 27pc for Simon Hughes
Click here for the full story, and here for a detailed breakdown of the results.
The three candidates are due to appear on Question Time tonight which should be very interesting. Last week Huhne wiped the floor with the rest of the panel, despite Iain Dale hilariously claiming that actor and would-be Tory MP Adam Rickitt was the star of the show.
As for who was really behind the YouGov poll that wasn't - suspicion points firmly at Camp Campbell as has been covered in detail on Guido's blog.
February 10 Update: Question Time sort of confirmed me in my view that none of the candidates are as good as Charles Kennedy. Huhne did not quite sparkle as I had hoped but at least did not mess-up. For a fuller analysis (and more detailed comment from me) see Iain Dale again.
Since then, of course, we've had Dunfermline East, which demonstrates that the era of three-party politics is not quite as dead as the Tories and Labour would have had us believe.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Be careful, Gordy.
There now seems to be a general consensus across what might broadly be described as the political and media classes that Gordon Brown will be the next Prime Minister, and that the process for the handover is already under way.
According to this piece by Nick Robinson the Chancellor no longer greets questions about the succession with gruff denials.
But while I would by and large go along with this conventional wisdom, I would - to paraphrase John Cole's comment about the downfall of Margaret Thatcher - keep 1pc of my mind open to the possibility that Gordon is being rather royally set up.
Eighteen months is an awfully long time in politics, and if at any point Gordon appears to be taking the succession - and more importantly the Labour Party - for granted, then the mood could quickly change.
It is not impossible that someone like Alan Milburn could capitalise on a groundswell of resentment among Labour members at what might appear like an establishment "stitch-up." And this might be exactly what the Blairites are secretly hoping for.
If I were Gordon, I would revert to the "gruff denial" strategy - and fast.
According to this piece by Nick Robinson the Chancellor no longer greets questions about the succession with gruff denials.
But while I would by and large go along with this conventional wisdom, I would - to paraphrase John Cole's comment about the downfall of Margaret Thatcher - keep 1pc of my mind open to the possibility that Gordon is being rather royally set up.
Eighteen months is an awfully long time in politics, and if at any point Gordon appears to be taking the succession - and more importantly the Labour Party - for granted, then the mood could quickly change.
It is not impossible that someone like Alan Milburn could capitalise on a groundswell of resentment among Labour members at what might appear like an establishment "stitch-up." And this might be exactly what the Blairites are secretly hoping for.
If I were Gordon, I would revert to the "gruff denial" strategy - and fast.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
An offensive image
Here's an image that many Christians find offensive. It depicts the late Graham Chapman playing Brian, a spoof on our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ in the film Monty Python's Life of Brian. It is part of a long tradition of religious satire ranging from the doddery vicar in Dad's Army to Father Ted and the Vicar of Dibley. Christians, it seems, have always been considered fair game when it comes to humour.
Sadly, Chapman is now dead. I could go out on the streets waving a placard and calling for the other perpetrators of this image - Terry Jones, Terry Gilliam, Michael Palin, Eric Idle and John Cleese - to be executed. But I'm not going to, because I happen to believe that the ability to poke fun at religion - or anything else - is an essential democratic freedom. And because even Christians need to be able to laugh at themselves.
February 7 update: Andrew Milloy has kindly sent me some more images which you would presumably never see in Arab newspapers. To view them, click here.
Monday, February 06, 2006
Blair - Brown handover: the latest
I reckon this story by Paddy Hennessy in yesterday's Sunday Tel predicting a handover by "next summer" is about right, though my money would still be on May 2007 - technically next spring if we're being pedantic.
Hennessy also reckons Blair will sack Hilary Armstrong and try to bring back Stephen Byers in the reshuffle, both of which were also predicted in my Column published the previous day and Podcast available from today.
Other reshuffle tips I've heard: Hilary Benn to go to the Home Office and Charles Clarke to Leader of the House; David Miliband Education Secretary with Ruth Kelly moving to International Development, and Prescott man Dick Caborn to become Chief Whip - possibly as a pay-off for the DPM's rescue act on school reform.
There's also speculation about Margaret Beckett but she will not leave the Cabinet unless it's of her own volition. Blair rates her extremely highly as one of his safest pairs of hands and she is also extremely close to Brown. I could be wrong, but my suspicion is that she would want to stay around for the handover.
Hennessy also reckons Blair will sack Hilary Armstrong and try to bring back Stephen Byers in the reshuffle, both of which were also predicted in my Column published the previous day and Podcast available from today.
Other reshuffle tips I've heard: Hilary Benn to go to the Home Office and Charles Clarke to Leader of the House; David Miliband Education Secretary with Ruth Kelly moving to International Development, and Prescott man Dick Caborn to become Chief Whip - possibly as a pay-off for the DPM's rescue act on school reform.
There's also speculation about Margaret Beckett but she will not leave the Cabinet unless it's of her own volition. Blair rates her extremely highly as one of his safest pairs of hands and she is also extremely close to Brown. I could be wrong, but my suspicion is that she would want to stay around for the handover.
Friday, February 03, 2006
Hilary's Finest Hour
Those of us who think Hilary Armstrong has outlived her usefulness may like to recall this famous encounter between New Labour's Chief Whip and the rebel MP Paul Marsden at the height of the controversy over the war in Afghanistan, in which La Armstrong (1) denies the existence of spin doctors, (2) claims that war is not a matter of conscience, and (3) compares opponents of the war to appeasers of Adolf Hitler.
Here's the full transcript in all its glory.
Armstrong: "Look, Paul, those that aren't with us are against us."
Marsden: "You won't even give us a free vote on whether we go to war - it is a matter of conscience."
Armstrong: "War is not a matter of conscience. Abortion and embryo research are matters of conscience, but not wars."
Marsden: "Are you seriously saying blowing people up and killing people is not a moral issue?"
Armstrong: "It is government policy that we are at war. You astound me. We can't have a trusting relationship if you keep talking to the media without permission. You must stop using the media."
Marsden: "That's a bit rich coming from people like you and Downing Street when Stephen Byers' spin doctor Jo Moore says September 11 is a good day to bury bad news."
Armstrong: "We don't have spin doctors in Number 10 - or anywhere else."
Marsden: "You aren't seriously telling me that you don't have spin doctors. You are losing it, Hilary."
Armstrong: "You wait until I really do lose it. I am not going to have a dialogue with you about that. It was people like you who appeased Hitler in 1938."
Marsden: "That's the official line now is it? We are all appeasers if we don't agree with everything you say?"
Here's the full transcript in all its glory.
Armstrong: "Look, Paul, those that aren't with us are against us."
Marsden: "You won't even give us a free vote on whether we go to war - it is a matter of conscience."
Armstrong: "War is not a matter of conscience. Abortion and embryo research are matters of conscience, but not wars."
Marsden: "Are you seriously saying blowing people up and killing people is not a moral issue?"
Armstrong: "It is government policy that we are at war. You astound me. We can't have a trusting relationship if you keep talking to the media without permission. You must stop using the media."
Marsden: "That's a bit rich coming from people like you and Downing Street when Stephen Byers' spin doctor Jo Moore says September 11 is a good day to bury bad news."
Armstrong: "We don't have spin doctors in Number 10 - or anywhere else."
Marsden: "You aren't seriously telling me that you don't have spin doctors. You are losing it, Hilary."
Armstrong: "You wait until I really do lose it. I am not going to have a dialogue with you about that. It was people like you who appeased Hitler in 1938."
Marsden: "That's the official line now is it? We are all appeasers if we don't agree with everything you say?"
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Huhne right to reject Campbell coronation
What are we to make of the story in today's Times that Chris Huhne welched on a deal not to stand against Sir Menzies Campbell in the Lib Dem leadership contest?
I've no idea whether it's true, though I note that the author is not the impeccably well-informed journalist (I won't embarrass him by using his name) who usually covers Lib Dem matters for the Thunderer...
But whether or not there was such a deal, I think in retrospect it is clear that Chris Huhne made the right decision in asking Sir Menzies to release him from it.
The implosion of Mark Oaten's campaign, and the subsequent revelations about Simon Hughes, have left Huhne as the only credible alternative and a Campbell coronation would only have served the interests of Nick Clegg and Co, not the interests of the party.
As Huhne himself has said, appointing a "caretaker" leader who would stand down after the next election would effectively be like appointing "the chairman of an ongoing leadership campaign among the younger candidates."
The Lib Dems deserve a bit better than that, in my view.
I've no idea whether it's true, though I note that the author is not the impeccably well-informed journalist (I won't embarrass him by using his name) who usually covers Lib Dem matters for the Thunderer...
But whether or not there was such a deal, I think in retrospect it is clear that Chris Huhne made the right decision in asking Sir Menzies to release him from it.
The implosion of Mark Oaten's campaign, and the subsequent revelations about Simon Hughes, have left Huhne as the only credible alternative and a Campbell coronation would only have served the interests of Nick Clegg and Co, not the interests of the party.
As Huhne himself has said, appointing a "caretaker" leader who would stand down after the next election would effectively be like appointing "the chairman of an ongoing leadership campaign among the younger candidates."
The Lib Dems deserve a bit better than that, in my view.
Pukka choice!
One or two fellow bloggers seem to be a trifle narked about Jamie Oliver scooping a Channel 4 politics award for being the "most inspirational political figure."
To make matters worse, the great David Cameron - one of the Top 100 sexiest men in the world apparently - was pushed down into fifth place, behind Oliver, Shami Chakrabarti, George Galloway and Bob Geldof.
I can't quite understand what the fuss is about. What Jamie Oliver did was to succeed in taking an important but moreorless forgotten area of policy - namely what our children were being fed in schools - highlighting its inadequacy, and actually bringing about a change.
The fact that it is people like Oliver, Chakrabati and Geldof, operating outside of "mainstream" politics, who are changing hearts and minds over issues of vital concern to ordinary people is not a sign of "dumbing down," more an indication that "mainstream" politics is completely failing to address them.
To make matters worse, the great David Cameron - one of the Top 100 sexiest men in the world apparently - was pushed down into fifth place, behind Oliver, Shami Chakrabarti, George Galloway and Bob Geldof.
I can't quite understand what the fuss is about. What Jamie Oliver did was to succeed in taking an important but moreorless forgotten area of policy - namely what our children were being fed in schools - highlighting its inadequacy, and actually bringing about a change.
The fact that it is people like Oliver, Chakrabati and Geldof, operating outside of "mainstream" politics, who are changing hearts and minds over issues of vital concern to ordinary people is not a sign of "dumbing down," more an indication that "mainstream" politics is completely failing to address them.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Is Hilary Armstrong the worst Chief Whip ever?
I can't claim the credit for this question. The great Peter Oborne originally posed it in his Spectator column back in 2002 before answering in the affirmative. Unfortunately I can't include a link as the Spectator archive doesn't appear to go back that far....
But Oborne was right of course. Armstrong was a competent enough local government minister from 1997-2001 and deserved a promotion, but this was always going to be the wrong job for her. Despite her name, the ability to strong-arm recalcitrant Labour MPs into backing the Government is not part of her political armoury.
Armstrong has survived for nearly five years in the Whip's Office for the simple reason that, with a majority of 161, it just wasn't a very important job, as reflected in the fact that after her appointment, she was forced to give up the old Chief Whip's quarters at 12 Downing St to make way for Alastair Campbell.
Now, however, with Labour's majority cut to 66, and the Government suffering its two unexpected defeats on the religious hatred legislation, Armstrong has suddenly found herself in the firing line.
Tony Blair's loyalty to Armstrong extends beyond keeping her in a job for which she is so obviously unsuited. He also employs her husband, Professor Paul Corrigan, as his health adviser at Number 10, to the consternation of the health unions who know Corrigan to be a privatisation freak.
Back in 2001, when he was an adviser to Armstrong's North-East chum Alan Milburn at the Department of Health, it was revealed he was also working as a lobbyist for dozens of firms which have won lucrative NHS contracts, a story which deserves a much more prominent place in the annals of Labour sleaze.
Feb 2 Update.Oborne has returned to the attack in today's Daily Mail. Still no link sadly as he doesn't appear to be one of the Mail's featured online columnists (shame!) but here's a taste of what he had to say.
"Hilary Amstrong is just a harmless drudge. She commands as much mystique as a wet blanket and inspires as much fear as a tabby cat." Miaow!
But Oborne was right of course. Armstrong was a competent enough local government minister from 1997-2001 and deserved a promotion, but this was always going to be the wrong job for her. Despite her name, the ability to strong-arm recalcitrant Labour MPs into backing the Government is not part of her political armoury.
Armstrong has survived for nearly five years in the Whip's Office for the simple reason that, with a majority of 161, it just wasn't a very important job, as reflected in the fact that after her appointment, she was forced to give up the old Chief Whip's quarters at 12 Downing St to make way for Alastair Campbell.
Now, however, with Labour's majority cut to 66, and the Government suffering its two unexpected defeats on the religious hatred legislation, Armstrong has suddenly found herself in the firing line.
Tony Blair's loyalty to Armstrong extends beyond keeping her in a job for which she is so obviously unsuited. He also employs her husband, Professor Paul Corrigan, as his health adviser at Number 10, to the consternation of the health unions who know Corrigan to be a privatisation freak.
Back in 2001, when he was an adviser to Armstrong's North-East chum Alan Milburn at the Department of Health, it was revealed he was also working as a lobbyist for dozens of firms which have won lucrative NHS contracts, a story which deserves a much more prominent place in the annals of Labour sleaze.
Feb 2 Update.Oborne has returned to the attack in today's Daily Mail. Still no link sadly as he doesn't appear to be one of the Mail's featured online columnists (shame!) but here's a taste of what he had to say.
"Hilary Amstrong is just a harmless drudge. She commands as much mystique as a wet blanket and inspires as much fear as a tabby cat." Miaow!
Monday, January 30, 2006
Electoral reform should be Tory priority
My attention is drawn to the latest set of predictions by the excellent Electoral Calculus website which calculates election results on the basis of current opinion polls, while allowing for the vagaries of our electoral system.
It shows that if an election was held tomorrow, Labour could expect a majority of 64 - a net loss of just two seats.
This very healthy majority would come in spite of the fact that Labour currently averages 38pc in the opinion polls to the Tories' 37pc.
The site also shows that the Liberal Democrats would lose no fewer than 51 seats if an election were held now, plummeting from their current representation of 62 to the pre-SDP level of 11.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from all this. Firstly, that those of us who argued that the Lib Dems might in time come to regret getting rid of Charles Kennedy might well have had a point.
Secondly, that David Cameron will find it extremely hard to win an election under the current, constituency-based system, which rewards Labour for the fact that its support is more concentrated and penalises his party for the fact that its support is more thinly-spread.
The Electoral Calculus figures show yet again that the Tories will have to be approximately 7-8pc ahead of Labour in the popular vote to win an overall majority.
In his own interests, as well as in the interests of democracy, Cameron should be arguing for the replacement of this rotten system with one that more adequately reflects the parties' overall share of the vote.
It shows that if an election was held tomorrow, Labour could expect a majority of 64 - a net loss of just two seats.
This very healthy majority would come in spite of the fact that Labour currently averages 38pc in the opinion polls to the Tories' 37pc.
The site also shows that the Liberal Democrats would lose no fewer than 51 seats if an election were held now, plummeting from their current representation of 62 to the pre-SDP level of 11.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from all this. Firstly, that those of us who argued that the Lib Dems might in time come to regret getting rid of Charles Kennedy might well have had a point.
Secondly, that David Cameron will find it extremely hard to win an election under the current, constituency-based system, which rewards Labour for the fact that its support is more concentrated and penalises his party for the fact that its support is more thinly-spread.
The Electoral Calculus figures show yet again that the Tories will have to be approximately 7-8pc ahead of Labour in the popular vote to win an overall majority.
In his own interests, as well as in the interests of democracy, Cameron should be arguing for the replacement of this rotten system with one that more adequately reflects the parties' overall share of the vote.
Parliament Squared
As an ex-lobby man, this story from the Axe Grinder column in this week's Press Gazette brought a smile to my face...
"Fleet Street veteran Rob Gibson, has learnt the hard way about the dangers of email.
The former Daily Express political editor and dedicated fund-raiser for journalists' charity the NPF now runs the highly regarded Gallery News at the House of Commons. Gibson sends out stories daily to a host of outlets, including MPs at Westminster.
Unfortunately, Gibson sent out one email in error last week that was a little too "exclusive".
To the great man's consternation, it contained the minutes of the latest meeting of his Masonic lodge. Now there's open government for you."
The extent of masonry within the lobby - and the Palace of Westminster as a whole - was a constant source of mischievous speculation during my time there.
Correspondents were frequently baffled to find the chairs in the Lobby Room rearranged with one facing the wrong way - a seating arrangement consistent with the masonic initiation ritual in which the candidate sits blindfolded with his back to the room.
On one memorable occasion, a notorious wind-up merchant in the regional lobby put out a spoof tannoy for the Secretary of the Press Gallery Freemasons' Lodge - such a body does exist.
It was answered by a very well-known Sunday newspaper political editor, who maintained he was simply curious as to who was on the other end of the line.....
"Fleet Street veteran Rob Gibson, has learnt the hard way about the dangers of email.
The former Daily Express political editor and dedicated fund-raiser for journalists' charity the NPF now runs the highly regarded Gallery News at the House of Commons. Gibson sends out stories daily to a host of outlets, including MPs at Westminster.
Unfortunately, Gibson sent out one email in error last week that was a little too "exclusive".
To the great man's consternation, it contained the minutes of the latest meeting of his Masonic lodge. Now there's open government for you."
The extent of masonry within the lobby - and the Palace of Westminster as a whole - was a constant source of mischievous speculation during my time there.
Correspondents were frequently baffled to find the chairs in the Lobby Room rearranged with one facing the wrong way - a seating arrangement consistent with the masonic initiation ritual in which the candidate sits blindfolded with his back to the room.
On one memorable occasion, a notorious wind-up merchant in the regional lobby put out a spoof tannoy for the Secretary of the Press Gallery Freemasons' Lodge - such a body does exist.
It was answered by a very well-known Sunday newspaper political editor, who maintained he was simply curious as to who was on the other end of the line.....
Friday, January 27, 2006
'At least no-one's shot a dog yet'
This is the thought with which Liberal Democrats are apparently consoling themselves after surely the most shattering week in their 17-year history, according to today's Guardian.
Full marks to pol corr Julian Glover for finding someone prepared to say this - I'm assuming he didn't make the quote up himself although some less scrupulous hacks doutbless would have done ;-)
The Guardian also scores with the best piece I have read so far on the Hughes affair, from Philip Hensher and Andy Beckett in G2.
I think I would take the view that, although it shouldn't have been necessary to ask the question, because he systematically misled the public over a number of years it sadly became necessary.
As to the leadership election....I do think Hughes' campaign is probably now holed below the waterline, which at least has the benefit of clarifying the choice facing Lib Dem members.
What I hope will now happen is that those Hughes supporters who want to see energetic leadership coupled with radical policies will realise that Chris Huhne stands a far better chance of defeating Ming Campbell.
Jan 30 update. Not surprisingly, Huhne has latched on to this idea and is now seeking to convince people that it's a two-horse race.
As ever with the Lib Dems, it could all come down to tactical voting.....
Full marks to pol corr Julian Glover for finding someone prepared to say this - I'm assuming he didn't make the quote up himself although some less scrupulous hacks doutbless would have done ;-)
The Guardian also scores with the best piece I have read so far on the Hughes affair, from Philip Hensher and Andy Beckett in G2.
I think I would take the view that, although it shouldn't have been necessary to ask the question, because he systematically misled the public over a number of years it sadly became necessary.
As to the leadership election....I do think Hughes' campaign is probably now holed below the waterline, which at least has the benefit of clarifying the choice facing Lib Dem members.
What I hope will now happen is that those Hughes supporters who want to see energetic leadership coupled with radical policies will realise that Chris Huhne stands a far better chance of defeating Ming Campbell.
Jan 30 update. Not surprisingly, Huhne has latched on to this idea and is now seeking to convince people that it's a two-horse race.
As ever with the Lib Dems, it could all come down to tactical voting.....
If the Gang of Four had stayed with Labour, would David Owen have become PM?
The 25th anniversary of the Limehouse Declaration this week has recalled to mind a conversation I had with Dr David Owen at a lunch in Westminster a few years back.
Asked whether he thought that he would have become Prime Minister had he stayed in the Labour Party, he replied: "Oh, there isn't a shadow of doubt about that."
You have to admire the man's self-belief, but I think in this instance it was misplaced. Owen may have been a Blairite before Blair - but Blairism's time had not yet come.
I look at the history and legacy of the SDP in greater detail in this column.
Asked whether he thought that he would have become Prime Minister had he stayed in the Labour Party, he replied: "Oh, there isn't a shadow of doubt about that."
You have to admire the man's self-belief, but I think in this instance it was misplaced. Owen may have been a Blairite before Blair - but Blairism's time had not yet come.
I look at the history and legacy of the SDP in greater detail in this column.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
Cheers Iain!
Practically everyone rates Iain Dale's Diary as one of the top political blogs around - so it's gratifying to find he's named this blog among his Top 25!
Apparently I'm "the political journalist who tells it like it is." Well, that's what I've always tried to do.
Iain's unique selling point is slightly different from mine as he is a Tory insider and veritable fount of gossip about what's going on in right-wing circles. His current obsession is the possibility that up to three Lib Dem MPs might defect to the Tories.
I'm not convinced about it myself - but since I readily accept Iain knows more about this subject than me I'm open to being proved wrong!
Apparently I'm "the political journalist who tells it like it is." Well, that's what I've always tried to do.
Iain's unique selling point is slightly different from mine as he is a Tory insider and veritable fount of gossip about what's going on in right-wing circles. His current obsession is the possibility that up to three Lib Dem MPs might defect to the Tories.
I'm not convinced about it myself - but since I readily accept Iain knows more about this subject than me I'm open to being proved wrong!
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