Mike Smithson seems taken in by today's Spectator "revelation" that Alastair Campbell thinks Blair will stay on "for a year and a bit," namely until next year's Labour Party Conference.
This is a little surprising, given that it is only a matter of days since Mike's highly-esteemed Political Betting.com site was saying he would go in 2006.
Leaving that aside though, I wonder what it is that makes him think that anything Alastair Campbell says can possibly be taken at face value, given that the man is a proven master of disinformation?
On this occasion, I don't think it even qualifies as that, more a hopeless case of wishful thinking from a man seemingly in denial about the extent of the crisis now facing the Prime Minister.
I am on record many times as saying Blair would step down on or around the 10th anniversary of his coming to power, namely on May 2, 2007, but I now take the view that that is the absolute limit of how long he can realistically hope to remain in power.
As one MP said recently: "The Labour Party will let him do 10 years. If he tries to go a day longer than that, they will kill him." Assuming, of course, that Inspector Knacker doesn't get him first.