Monday, November 12, 2007
An even match
Nikc Clegg continues to be the hot favourite in the Lib Dem leadership contest, but among readers of this blog, at least, the two candidates are fairly evenly matched. My recent poll on the contest showed a slight preference for Clegg, but only by a margin of 53-47 over his rival Chris Huhne. Of course it's totally unscientific, and I would say probably well under half of readers of my blog are Liberal Democrats, but this result echoes my own hunch that the outcome of the election will be closer than many are currently predicting.
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3 comments:
Statistically, this is a sample of N = 100; so the '95 % confidence interval' [= the range within which the correct value will lie 19 times out of 20] = +/- 10 % for [say] the Clegg %, i.e. 43 - 63 %.
So you're right: it's too close to call. The media preference for Clegg tells us nothing about what the armchair members are thinking now or will decide. Much depends on the 2 TV debates: 'On Thursday, November 15th at 10:35pm on BBC1 there is a Question Time Special with Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg, followed on Sunday, November 18th, at 12.00 pm on BBC1, with them going head-to-head on the Politics Show with Jon Sopel.'.
I intend going to the hustings in Bristol tonight 13/11.
I get the impression that Nick Clegg is ahead: however, examination of policies and general perform could still turn it in favour of Huhne.
It's a game of two halves, Paul, a game of two halves
Meanwhile Vincent Cable has been doing rather well as caretaker. Pretty good question choice in PMQs and solid in debate on security today.
They should put reopen nominations on their poll. VC would appeal in both directions. Cheese and Cheese will probably not do so.
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