It's not enough

Tony Blair has confirmed what we already knew and said he will stand down within the next year. Gordon Brown has said the timing is his decision and warned there can be no more private agreements or pacts.

But is it enough? Will Tony Blair now get his 10 years after all? And will Gordon Brown really just sit back and wait for him to go, in the certain knowledge that each day that goes by gives his enemies more chance of finding an alternative?

No, I don't think so. The heart of the issue - the political dynamic which is really driving this crisis and which has caused it come to a head now - remains unresolved.

That is quite simply the desire among Labour MPs for a new leader to be in place by the time of the local and devolved elections in May so they can begin the fightback against David Cameron's resurgent Tories.

On my blog earlier, I set out an way in which that could happen, with a new party leader taking over in March, but Blair remaining PM until May - the "Aznar Option" as it has been termed.

This to me is the only way in which both sides can salvage something from this, but there is no indication that it is even on the agenda. Indeed Mr Brown, in his statement, seemed to go out of his way to stress there can be no more deals.

The only Blairite minister who has really been seeking to pour oil on the party's troubled waters has been David Miliband, who I must say has gone hugely up in my estimation today.

In his interview with the New Statesman, he not only ruled himself out of contention for the leadership - a sensible move at his age - but made clear that he wanted a stable transition to Mr Brown - and no-one else.

By contrast, some of the Blairites seem determined to try to goad Mr Brown beyond endurance, with John Hutton the new flavour-of-the-month among the ranks of the "Anyone But Gordon" faction.

One Cabinet ally of Mr Blair is reported to have told the BBC's Nick Robinson tonight: "He would be a fucking dreadful Prime Minister and I will do everything in my power to stop him."

Mike Smithson has a theory that this is what the row has really been about - that Brown has realised Blair intends to make a real contest of it by stringing out his departure and endorsing other candidates' right to put themselves forward.

If that proves to be the case, then this week's shenangigans will prove only to have been the opening skirmishes in a bitter and protracted civil war.

Okay, here's The Deal (III)

Tony Blair is due to set out later today the plans for his departure, but unless he agrees to go before the Scottish and Welsh elections in May, I can't see it resolving the current crisis.

As I wrote yesterday, it is these elections that now lie at the heart of the issue, and the very real fear among MPs that Labour will lose control of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly unless Blair is gone by then.

Blair and Brown are reported to have had a furious bust-up, with the Chancellor demanding that the PM go before Christmas, and Blair continuing to dig his heels in.

As both the Times and Guardian have argued in their leader columns this morning, some sort of deal is now urgently necessary to stop the Government imploding. Here's what I think such a deal would need to say in order for it to stick.

* Brown publicly disassociates himself from the current attempts to force Blair out of office now and endorses the need for him to be allowed to make a "dignified exit."

* Blair announces that he will leave 10 Downing Street on May 4, 2007, immediately after the local and devolved elections, and three days after the 10th anniversary of his coming to power.

* Labour convenes a special conference in January to trigger an election for a new leader of the party, to be in place by March.

* A two-month dual premiership then ensues, with the new Labour leader heading up the party's campaign for the local and devolved elections while Blair remains a "caretaker" Prime Minister.

* Blair makes clear that he continues to endorse Brown as his successor and disowns the comments by Alan Milburn and Stephen Byers which appear to suggest the need for a different direction.

* Brown continues to make clear that his Government will be New Labour to the core -which to be fair he always has done.

If this scenario appears slightly to favour Brown, it is because it is the Chancellor who is in the stronger political position at the moment.

But there needs to be compromise on both sides now. If there isn't, Blair is going to end up being dragged kicking and screaming from power, and the only winners will be the Tories.

Update: Obviously the essence of my proposed deal is that Blair gives up being party leader in March before he gives up being Prime Minister in May. Guido has a post in which he refers to this solution as "the Aznar," after a similar arrangement in Spain before Jose Maria Aznar stepped down.

So is it a coup?

The public intervention of arch-Brownite former Europe Minister Doug Henderson (pictured) into the Labour leadership wrangle this afternoon will doubtless be construed by the Blairites as evidence that the long-awaited Brownite putsch is under way. Indeed, long-time Blair admirer Martin Kettle has already rushed into print on Comment is Free to denounce the "plot."

I'm not so sure myself. I think what we are now seeing is not so much a conspiracy but the outworkings of the natural laws of political dynamics.

Dougie H is not an objective witness. He hates Blair's guts for having sacked him from the Government in 1999, purely on the grounds of his association with Brown rather than his performance as a minister, and he justifiably expects to return to office, though perhaps not at Cabinet level, in a Gordon adminstration.

But to me his comment about why Blair should go now, and what is to be gained from him hanging around for another year, hits the nail on the head.

Newcastle North MP Mr Henderson said today: "There should be a new leader in place by the end of March in time for the local elections and mid-term polls in Scotland and Wales."

In my previous post I discussed the various ways in which Blair might yet be forced out, most probably by a rebellion in the Cabinet or the PLP. These elections seem to me to be the key to the whole affair.

If Scottish and Welsh MPs decide collectively, as many of them already seem to have done, that Labour faces disaster in next May's devolved elections as long as Blair remains in post, then I think it is going to be incredibly hard for him to resist the pressure to depart soooner.

In other words, he's not going to get his 10 years after all.

Anyway, enough of the serious stuff. Here's a couple of light-hearted takes on the Blair departure story which I really appreciated today.

Tim Dowling in the Guardian imagines a possible Blue Peter interview with Mr Blair as he embarks on his "legacy tour," while Blairwatch suggests some possible tour venues, culminating in a grand finale in the Millenium Dome whilst the Women's Institute sing Jerusalem.