So is it a coup?

The public intervention of arch-Brownite former Europe Minister Doug Henderson (pictured) into the Labour leadership wrangle this afternoon will doubtless be construed by the Blairites as evidence that the long-awaited Brownite putsch is under way. Indeed, long-time Blair admirer Martin Kettle has already rushed into print on Comment is Free to denounce the "plot."

I'm not so sure myself. I think what we are now seeing is not so much a conspiracy but the outworkings of the natural laws of political dynamics.

Dougie H is not an objective witness. He hates Blair's guts for having sacked him from the Government in 1999, purely on the grounds of his association with Brown rather than his performance as a minister, and he justifiably expects to return to office, though perhaps not at Cabinet level, in a Gordon adminstration.

But to me his comment about why Blair should go now, and what is to be gained from him hanging around for another year, hits the nail on the head.

Newcastle North MP Mr Henderson said today: "There should be a new leader in place by the end of March in time for the local elections and mid-term polls in Scotland and Wales."

In my previous post I discussed the various ways in which Blair might yet be forced out, most probably by a rebellion in the Cabinet or the PLP. These elections seem to me to be the key to the whole affair.

If Scottish and Welsh MPs decide collectively, as many of them already seem to have done, that Labour faces disaster in next May's devolved elections as long as Blair remains in post, then I think it is going to be incredibly hard for him to resist the pressure to depart soooner.

In other words, he's not going to get his 10 years after all.

Anyway, enough of the serious stuff. Here's a couple of light-hearted takes on the Blair departure story which I really appreciated today.

Tim Dowling in the Guardian imagines a possible Blue Peter interview with Mr Blair as he embarks on his "legacy tour," while Blairwatch suggests some possible tour venues, culminating in a grand finale in the Millenium Dome whilst the Women's Institute sing Jerusalem.

Ten ways in which Blair could go before May 31, 2007

So it is apparently official. Tony Blair's closest allies confirm he will be gone in less than a year. George Pascoe Watson in the Sun goes further and names May 31, 2007 as the actual resignation date, possibly by the clever journalistic device of working eight weeks back from the end of the 2007 Parliamentary session. For Junior Defence Minister and fellow blogger Tom Watson it is not soon enough, and he quits.

Having long taken the view that Blair would try to hang around for his 10th anniversary, I concluded yesterday that it was no longer possible. Here's ten factors and forces which could intervene in his plans, ranging from a change of heart by the man himself to Harold Macmillan's fabled "events, dear boy, events...."

1. Himself. Blair might just decide he's had enough of all this, and announce a surprise departure. For as long as the process remained in Blair's hands, I thought this was quite a likely option, but the announcement of a "timetable" has made it less likely, as it would now look like he was succumbing to pressure. Chances: 2/10.

2. Gordon Brown. The Chancellor might finally cotton-on to the fact that Blair is determined to stitch him up, and launch a pre-emptive strike. It would be an incredible gamble and might bring the curse of the regicide down on his head, but that might be better than hanging around for Reid/Johnson/Miliband to emerge as serious alternatives. Chances: 4/10.

3. John Prescott. The Deputy Leader might once have been a plausible conveyor of the silver bullet, but his credibility is shot. He could however still bring down Blair in another way - by falling on his own sword. Since Blair has already said he is going, there would then be pressure for the leadership and deputy leadership to be resolved at the same time. Chances: 6/10.

4. The Cabinet. Despite the decline of "Cabinet Government," it was the Cabinet that did for Thatcher in the end and I now think this is the likeliest denouement for Blair. They know it will almost certainly put Brown in No 10, and that will mean the end of a good few Cabinet careers. But better that than another year of drift and division. Chances: 7/10.

5. The PLP. Blair's support within the PLP is visibly waning and unless the political situation improves for Labour - hard to see while Blair remains in place - it is entirely plausible that he could fall victim to the kind of internal MPs revolt that did for both Iain Duncan Smith and Charles Kennedy. If so, expect the Scots and the Welsh to be to the fore. Chances: 6/10.

6. The House of Commons. Alternatively, Blair's dwindling support in the PLP may lead to his defeat on a major piece of Government legislation and a vote of no confidence. This would however require David Cameron's acquiescance, and it is in Cameron's interests to keep Blair in power as long as possible. Chances: 3/10.

7. Conference. There is still a theoretical possbility that someone could bring forward a motion to the party conference, or demand the connvening of a special conference, that could in turn trigger a leadership election. It's a remote possibility, but I include it here as it is the only formal procesure that actually exists. Chances 1/10.

8. The public. Elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Asesembly and English local authorities take place next May. Blair will be gone soon after that anyway so the results won't have a direct impact on the date. But what about by-elections? There are bound to be some, and they could easily turn into referendums on whether Blair should stay or go. Chances: 5/10.

9. The police. The most intriguing possibility, and the one which could yet bring the Blair years to the most ignominious end imaginable. Inspector John Yates is currently investigating the award of peerages in return for donations to Labour funds or towards setting up City Academies. If Blair has his collar felt, he is toast. Chances: 4/10.

10. "Events." These are by their very nature always beyond a politician's control, but invariably have greater impact when that politician is already weakened. In the early days, Blair's popularity enabled him to brush such setbacks aside. Not now. Some new scandal affecting a Labour minister, or some new catastrophe in Iraq could easily tip him over the edge. Chances: 7/10.

Chances of none of these things happening, and Blair surviving until next summer: 0/10.

The Wages of Spin

Two, or possibly even three letters have been sent to Tony Blair by Labour MPs demanding that he stand down immediately. The leaked memo published in today's Daily Mirror shows why they are right.

When I first saw this, I have to say my first reaction was that it was a spoof. Someone on another blog has likened it to an Armando Iannucci sketch and I think that's about right.

But Kevin Maguire, loyal Brownite though he may be, is not the kind of reporter who gets spoofed. Whether or not Blair himself ever saw the memo, I do believe it is genuine.

What it shows, above all, is that whatever tenuous grip on reality might once have existed within the Blair Bunker has now been completely and irretrievably lost.

The memo states that Mr Blair "needs to go with the crowds wanting more. He should be the star who won't even play that last encore. In moving towards the end he must focus on the future."

It's that phrase "needs to go with the crowds wanting more" that does it for me. Has whoever wrote that picked up a newspaper lately, or read the opinion polls, or spoken to ordinary voters, or Labour Party members for that matter?

If they had, they would know that the country, and the party too, is fed-up to the back teeth of Blair, has been for some time, and just wants him to get on his bike.

The last conceivable date at which Blair could have "gone with the crowds wanting more" would have been immediately after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the Spring of 2003, before it became clear what an evil morass we had involved ourselves in, or how far the public had been deceived into backing the war in the first place.

This evident loss of touch with reality is all of a one with that strange "Anthony" mug with which Mr Blair appeared at his recent monthly press conference.

"You're a man who's in charge, others follow your lead. Your refined inner voice drives your thoughts and deeds. You possess great depth and have a passionate mind. Others think you're influential, ethical and kind," it read.

A few years back, the Downing Street spokesman Tom Kelly sought to rubbish his namesake Dr David Kelly by describing him as a "Walter Mitty Charachter," ignoring, for instance, the pivotal role which Dr Kelly played in verifying the disarmament process in Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Well, who is Walter Mitty now, Tom?

Of course, Tony Blair has always had a Messiah complex. I don't mean he thinks he is Jesus Christ, but he does think that he is in some way the chosen one, a modern-day Moses perhaps, the only one capable of leading his people from the wilderness to the promised land, perhaps even the only one capable of keeping them there.

What is outlined in the memo is not so much a resignation, as an ascension into heaven, or at least into the bright, sunlit uplands of elder statesmanship.

As Maguire states: "Privately a highly detailed battle plan is in place that aims to catapult Mr Blair out of office and into elder statesmanship with as many bells and whistles as possible. The key aides masterminding the most drawn-out exit in British political history have thought of everything - even a celestial choir, courtesy of Songs of Praise.

"While Mr Blair scolds us for "obsessing" over his exit date, it is clear he is a lot more obsessed."

But to those of us who have spent the better parts of our careers following the fortunes of Tony Blair and New Labour, none of this should come as a great surprise.

Mr Blair was spun into office in the first place, and to be spun out of office courtesy of a carefully co-ordinated series of photo-ops and interviews would doubtless be an appropriate end for the Great Charlatan.

Environment Secretary David Miliband has said today that he reckons it will happen in 12 months time, but whether or not that constitutes confirmation of the wretched "timetable" which Mr Blair was only days ago seeking to deny us, he won't last that long.

All political careers end in failure - but Blair's is now in danger of ending in farce.

Blair-must-go watch update:

Calling for Blair to go now/this year

Chris Bryant, Sion Smon and 15 other Labour MPs
Andrew Smith
Frank Dobson
Michael Meacher
Ashok Kumar
Glenda Jackson
The Guardian
The Daily Telegraph
The Economist
The New Statesman
Tribune
Polly Toynbee
Matthew Parris
Jonathan Freedland
Stephen Pollard
Paul Linford
Bloggerheads
Skipper
BBC Newsnight poll
Times Populus poll

Demanding a timetable for leadership handover

Wayne David, Don Touhig and other Welsh MPs
Neal Lawson/Compass
Nick Raynsford
Martin Salter
Howard Stoate

Footnote: Mike White of the Guardian, who was widely believed to have counselled his newspaper against calling for Blair to go this year, is now calling for "a dignified exit" soon.