Thursday, February 01, 2007

In my dreams?

I had a fairly vivid dream last night that Tony Blair would resign today, although I think this stems more from reading too much of Iain Dale's Blog than any genuine prophetic insight on my part.

Nevertheless, today's revelations that he was questioned a second time over the cash-for-honours affair last Friday have surely pushed him even closer to the exit door.

It's not that often I take issue with Guido Fawkes but I was surprised to see him advising punters today to back a July departure, admittedly before news of the second interview broke.

I honestly think the very best he can hope for now is a March announcement on a formal departure just after the local elections in May. That way he still gets to do his 10 years, while at the same time lancing the boil ahead of those elections to limit the damage to Labour.

Of course, Blair himself remains in denial about the degree of damage he is doing by hanging on, but the man who has run Britain like an elected president is about to be reminded that we live in a parliamentary democracy after all.

To put it bluntly, I don't think Labour MPs are going to put up with another five or six months of this. It will be a plain, old-fashioned backbench revolt that gets him in the end.

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9 comments:

Curly said...

It is this very denial and alienation from the political realities which is doing the most damage; to Blair himself, his party, and his country. Reputations are at stake, to all three, yet he cannot see it.
As such, I therefore agree with your assertion, he won't see the knives coming from behind him either!

MorrisOx said...

Blair will not be charged with anything.

One individual may be charged with an offence relating to the inquiry.

There will be no conviction.

David Gladwin said...

He didn't sound like he was planning on going anywhere in a hurry this morning on the Today programme!

Paul Linford said...

Yes, his strategy now seems to be fairly clear - to hang on and hope that the investigation is concluded swiftly and that no-one is charged.

But what if it isn't concluded swiftly, or that someone close to him is charged (as Morris Ox suggests they might be, above?)

Honey Weeks said...

Okay, let's put everyone out of their misery. Blair's going to resign at just before Easter (at the end of Epiphany!). He reckons that Prescott has been "sanitised" enough to give him a real shot at succeeding him--this is what this has all been about: "laundering" Prescott, bringing his sins into the open, etc. Now he has done his penance he can be a "born-again" prime minister. The Labout PR machine will swing into action... and Brown will be "disgraced" if he doesn't toe the line... Watch this space; you heard it here first...

Bob Piper said...

honey weeks... if you mean drivel, you're wrong. We've heard drivel before.

No Blairite me, but I think his appearance on Today was very good. I think Paul staines' suggestion sounds about right... end of June, early July, then people can go on holiday whilst those of us entitled to select the next leader.

james higham said...

...It's not that often I take issue with Guido Fawkes...

Oh, I don't know, Paul. I seem to recall a number of times now. We all do.

Honey Weeks said...

Actually, the issue is somewhat more complex. Blair knows that Ebeneezer (sorry, Brown) is unpalatable to the Labour Party per se. It does not want to see an accountant running the country (and not a particulalry good one at that). Blair is caught between a rock and a hard place. He DOESN'T want Brown, THE PARTY doesn't want Brown, meanwhile Brown has retreated to where he cannot be harmed. Blair has to enable has transition while CARVING Brown out--this is what he has been trying to do for several years; it is not that he wants to hang on to power, it is that the alternatives are too horrific to contemplate. The saying goes that nature abhors a vacuum...watch the vacuum around Prescott's space...it is after all a pretty BIG space...

Honey.

Guido 2.0 said...

Ha-ha! Manic has scooped you! He started having those dreams almost a year ago.

;o)